The CGT was brought in so the private market would build the houses and units that the government had failed to do.
That's correct and the policy has failed as we have a housing shortage. Successive State governments have abrogated their responsibility to provide social housing relying on the private sector which has resulted in the mess we have now.
The target market for savvy investors is not new builds in the far flung outer suburbs nor is it new units in multi story inner city suburbs, it's established housing in suburbs that are in demand as family homes. These investors are not interested in yield, they're solely interested in capital gain and are in direct competition with those wanting to purchase a house to live in. The result is that competition is fierce and prices are inflated.
Take those investors out of that market and it cools prices allowing families and first-home buyers a chance to own a home in a suburb that is more appealing than a lowset brick box in a location with substandard liveability and hours from their place of employment.
It's a sound strategy. Whether it works as expected is yet to be seen.
Take away the CGT and rents must go up.
No. Any gain made before July 1 2027 is still eligible for the 50% deduction. After that time future gains will be subject to the new law. It's not going to increase the costs of providing a rental for existing landlords, merely trim a little fat from their capital gain should they sell. The market will decide what is an appropriate rent, not the few areshole landlords using this as an excuse to scalp renters.
The abolition of NG would have more of an impact, but around half of landlords in the market don't negative gear anyway so there won't be any impact on them, of those that do they could try to raise rents but they'll be in competition with those that don't so that won't work, or they could refinance or more likely they'll have to sell into a market that will mostly be buyers looking for a place to live.
Concerns that this policy will create havoc in the housing market is just fear mongering by those with a vested self-interest under the current status quo.