Another round of smackdown is ahead for Gold and Silver

[Pirocco]

Then wouldn't it be more constructive for you to start a company where you can plough your profits into capital expenditure and wage increases and leave the dead metals for the suckers? Probably wouldn't want to invest in any equipment that has dead metals in it like silver, gold, copper, iron ore, zinc, nickel, lead etc you don't want to end up a sucker

The difference between stockpiling (saving, in anything, dollars, silver, peanuts) and investing, the choice between, isn't related to "constructivity" but to risk and dependency.
And it's not about the atoms but about what they form: an object that is used to produce (a "tool"), or an object that can't be, like a silver coin or bar or statue or bullet. Your dead metal containing equipment comment is quite silly I must say.
And about suckers, those that suck are those that follow trends, regardless whether that occurs along saving or investing or whatever, and the longer the trend they follow, the more they suck.
And just to add, people that suggest others to do the opposite of what they plan to do themselves (usually along false claims), suck too, in another way then.

 

[Jim4silver]

Your friend Leon is not predicting anything. Anyone can look at the COT report and say gold is going up or down based on the changes in commercial positions. Using that one indicator on is own isn't going to be very accurate particularly when he ignores what the rest of the report is telling him and then blames manipulation when he gets it wrong.

I always hedge my positions by placing pre orders on both sides of the trade and by using multiple markets like forex and/or futures. That's what someone who actually trades for living does.


So long as gold can hold the $1190-$1200 level, the next major resistance is $1310 which is the January 2015 high. What will drive gold up to $1310 will be further deterioration in US macroeconomic data decreasing the chance of the Fed raising rates in June and weakening the US dollar. The COT report will reflect that as it plays out by increases in large and small speculator positions as well as higher open interest levels.

Do you know if gold/silver is going up or down in the next week or weeks? If you don't know, that is fine too. Just curious.

Jim

Caput is right.
It is interesting that you have subtly categorised traders as "predictors". If you are here to learn (as you stated above), then the first and most important lesson in trading is to get rid of the "predictor" mindset - it will wreak havoc with your decision-making, judgement, trading psych and ego. It also insinuates you need to be accurate, or "right", in your predictions to make money - and the need to be right will also affect your trading results via the psychological factors mentioned above.
Traders who make consistent money are not predicting anything, but rather playing the probability game, combined with risk management that produces a positive expectancy, resulting consistently positive pay-offs.
You can see this type of probability play in Caput's post - orders on both sides with an "if/then" type of logic for trade entries based on the probability of price moves in either direction.

I hear what you are saying, but you still have to chose one way or the other when you place your "bet". You can hedge and such, but you have to make a call; up, down or sideways. A person cannot place so many "bets" so that they win no matter which way the market goes or under all market conditions. If they could do that, they would become a billionaire in no time because they would never lose.

So when I say "is the price going up or down?" that is what I mean. If the investor says "I don't have a clue", then their input is really no better than any else's in my opinion, to the extent it gives the alleged "smarter" types (like those posting in this thread) the right to call out others as being stupid or whatever because they don't list a litany of factors affecting price but instead focus on something like the COT, etc. I think you are playing "word games" WRCMAD. The proper answer to my question posed to the other poster, based upon your answer herein, would be "the greater probability is that silver is going to drop over the next x weeks, etc." If using all those factors Lupinum posted can't tell you which way is "probable" then what good are they? Kind of reminds me of the Elliot wave folks who can't tell you if it is a wave c or wave 3 or whatever the hell until AFTER it has moved. Great tool that is I am sure.

At the end of the day you are either profitable or not. Nothing else is relevant. There is no "it's not if you win or lose it's how you play the game" BS in investing. So the folks here who seem to think highly of themselves or as being somehow more sophisticated than others should be able to make a directional call based on probabilities, no? I still believe the "smart guys" here are afraid to say anything that will show they are wrong (make a prediction or probability based call if you prefer that nomenclature) because then they would not be able to call out Leon and others for being wrong.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[Wy So Lo]

speaking of silver and gold getting smacked

 

[Silverpv]

Yet another breakdown of a rally that didn't happen. It's kinda annoying all these false moves. I can see why people are pissed off over the years, right when it looks like its going to go up, it goes right back down.. lol

Hardly a breakdown. Just a slight pullback late on a Friday afternoon, quite likely traders locking in profits before the weekend after a positive week for silver.

I will be very surprised if there is not some renewed strength early in the coming week.

well, Surprise!! lol..

There's no real way to predict the market. I'm just trying to buy/sell as responsibly as I can.

 

[Pirocco]

There is a certainty in speculation / saving / stockpiling though, what goes up relative to the rest, must go down relative to the rest.
Because people don't throw away the stuff they bought to store value: they sell it again.
So stockpiles, monetary aggregates, etc, are quite reliable indicators of trends to come.

 

[BuggedOut]

Yet another breakdown of a rally that didn't happen. It's kinda annoying all these false moves. I can see why people are pissed off over the years, right when it looks like its going to go up, it goes right back down.. lol

Hardly a breakdown. Just a slight pullback late on a Friday afternoon, quite likely traders locking in profits before the weekend after a positive week for silver.

I will be very surprised if there is not some renewed strength early in the coming week.

well, Surprise!! lol..

There's no real way to predict the market. I'm just trying to buy/sell as responsibly as I can.

There actually WAS some renewed strength early in the coming week when silver ran right back up to $16 USD on Tuesday night. Now in the back half of the week it looks like we have another pullback. Technical analysts don't like it much when price movements fail to break through key resistance levels.

 

[Silverpv]

Hardly a breakdown. Just a slight pullback late on a Friday afternoon, quite likely traders locking in profits before the weekend after a positive week for silver.

I will be very surprised if there is not some renewed strength early in the coming week.

well, Surprise!! lol..

There's no real way to predict the market. I'm just trying to buy/sell as responsibly as I can.

There actually WAS some renewed strength early in the coming week when silver ran right back up to $16 USD on Tuesday night. Now in the back half of the week it looks like we have another pullback. Technical analysts don't like it much when price movements fail to break through key resistance levels.

It sucks, I know we're all on the same rollercoaster.. I'm glad i didn't spend all my money buying new stuff. It looks like there will be another entry point again. If it broke $16.50, I think we would've continued to head upward. Since it didn't, I think its on another run down to the mid 14's. If gold drops below $1190, we're heading further down channel. Lower highs leads to lower lows... Let's see how it goes! Sucks that the dollar is devaluing too. I still want to make an order from Perthbullion @ 0.69:1 and spot at $13.25 or lower.

 

[Pirocco]

Technical analysts don't like it much when price movements fail to break through key resistance levels.

That's because it means that those they wanted to buy them a free ride, refused.
Technical analysis can be seen as an attempt to drive people into predictable (and thus frontrunnable) trading behaviour. Sometimes that doesn't work out, usually due to alot hard lessons that sit too short in memory.
Also, it is a kind of "chunked data" analysis: it's based on a certain data range (a trendline), a focus, and then its overridden like the guy that was observing an ant on the street, with the approaching truck outside his scope. The ant fitted between the reeds of the tires, the guy not.

 

[wrcmad]

Technical analysts don't like it much when price movements fail to break through key resistance levels.

That's because it means that those they wanted to buy them a free ride, refused.

+100.
And nothing I love more than a free ride.

Technical analysis can be seen as an attempt to drive people into exploit predictable (and thus frontrunnable) trading behaviour. Sometimes that doesn't work out, usually due to alot hard lessons that sit too short in memory but often it does.

Fixed.

Also, it is a kind of "chunked data" analysis: it's based on a certain data range (a trendline), a focus, and then its overridden like the guy that was observing an ant on the street, with the approaching truck outside his scope. The ant fitted between the reeds of the tires, the guy not.

Nope.

 

[Pirocco]

That's because it means that those they wanted to buy them a free ride, refused.

+100.
And nothing I love more than a refused free ride.

Technical analysis can be seen as an attempt to drive people into predictable (and thus frontrunnable) trading behaviour. Sometimes that doesn't work out, usually due to alot hard lessons that sit too short in memory.

Repaired.

Also, it is a kind of "chunked data" analysis: it's based on a certain data range (a trendline), a focus, and then its overridden like the guy that was observing an ant on the street, with the approaching truck outside his scope. The ant fitted between the reeds of the tires, the guy not.

The TA guys fat neck alone probably already made that impossible.

 

[Jim4silver]

Today is the day..... we break below $15 again? Looks like what I've been saying is coming to pass-- we're droppin' before we're poppin'. Maybe Leon should have held on to his shorts? The Commercials ARE the smart money and they will not lose their ASSetS on their massive short position. Wishing to the magic silver fairy will not change this.

I am so disgusted with the pro PM sites that still keep featuring the same numbnut prognosticators who have been wrong since 2011 almost all the time (I won't mention names) but you guys know the ones. Now these sites all seem to want to charge people to hear their bad calls, as if getting them for free wasn't bad enough, now dolts will pay for them.

PS Sorry for my negative tone, I saw the accountant yesterday and I have to sell a bit to pay the taxman in April.

Just my opinion.

Jim

 

[wrcmad]

I am so disgusted with the pro PM sites that still keep featuring the same numbnut prognosticators who have been wrong since 2011 almost all the time (I won't mention names) but you guys know the ones. Now these sites all seem to want to charge people to hear their bad calls, as if getting them for free wasn't bad enough, now dolts will pay for them?

+100.
But they will maintain their calls were good, and that manipulation is to blame. :lol:

 

[alor]

buy is cheap, silver is shiny

 

[JulieW]

"Full fathom five thy father lies,
Of his bones are coral made,
Those are pearls that were his eyes,
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change,
into something rich and strange."

William Shakespeare, The Tempest


Let's see how we do through the Non-Farm Payrolls Report tomorrow.

Like most of the really big, substantial changes, this one continues on, moving slowly, lulling almost everyone into a false sense of continuity. And then the sea-change comes.

According to Bloomberg, even with this sluggish March trading, this was the 'best quarter for gold in 30 years.'

We live in a time of great trend changes, in finance, in politics, and power.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Have a pleasant evening.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.au/

 

[JulieW]

Gold, China, Manipulation, Strategies etc from Jim Rickards

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdd_-w0-_Xc[/youtube]

 

[kramer]

Someones shaking the tree tonight. Time to buy some monster boxes

 

[Altima]

Someones shaking the tree tonight. Time to buy some monster boxes

Monster boxes of gold? Dayum!