Another round of smackdown is ahead for Gold and Silver
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
leon1998 said:Almost got caught by this huge price surge above $16, wow.
My understanding is that, swap dealers/banksters probably have closed quite some short position leading to the FOMC; since they probably already knew Fed's transcript.
The COT shows a net gold speculative position of 37.6% of open interest. From 2001 through 2012 the net speculative position often peaked from 50% to 60%. You've completely missed the rise in open interest, which has reached a more than 4 year high. Open interest is not a leading indicator but a confirming indicator. Strong increases in open interest validate the strong increases in gold. The recent increase in open interest is similar the increases that followed the 2001 and 2008 lows in gold. Has nothing to do with banksters or manipulation and just shows your gross lack of knowledge in understanding the market you're investing or pretending to invest in which is dangerous to any fool who follows your advice.
Silverpv said:
Hardly a breakdown. Just a slight pullback late on a Friday afternoon, quite likely traders locking in profits before the weekend after a positive week for silver.
I will be very surprised if there is not some renewed strength early in the coming week.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Open interest is an indicator that on its own says nothing. For ex when it rises while price drops, the "technical analysis" - price outlook is... further negative.Caput Lupinum said:leon1998 said:Almost got caught by this huge price surge above $16, wow.
My understanding is that, swap dealers/banksters probably have closed quite some short position leading to the FOMC; since they probably already knew Fed's transcript.
The COT shows a net gold speculative position of 37.6% of open interest. From 2001 through 2012 the net speculative position often peaked from 50% to 60%. You've completely missed the rise in open interest, which has reached a more than 4 year high. Open interest is not a leading indicator but a confirming indicator. Strong increases in open interest validate the strong increases in gold. The recent increase in open interest is similar the increases that followed the 2001 and 2008 lows in gold. Has nothing to do with banksters or manipulation and just shows your gross lack of knowledge in understanding the market you're investing or pretending to invest in which is dangerous to any fool who follows your advice.
One could pose 2 general "rules of thumb":
- open interest and price move in same direction then the current price direction is considered as "supported".
- when they move in opposite direction, then the current price direction is considered to be "unsupported" (and about to change).
and... this is all just "rules of thumb" based. Can turn out wrong, and usually it tends to be at precisely the most determinating moments
Because, that's what technical analysis is: it needs suckers to follow / act upon what it suggests, without it's as useless as a sail pinned in the ground.
You can make the exact same argument for changes in positions of the COT in general and COT on its own says nothing
The point is Leon is telling everyone to short gold and silver purely based on changes in the COT positions when not even all the COT data supports his position let alone other technical and fundamental indicators.
The point is Leon is telling everyone to short gold and silver purely based on changes in the COT positions when not even all the COT data supports his position let alone other technical and fundamental indicators.
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
Caput Lupinum said:
So you are saying that by listing what HE is personally doing, he is TELLING EVERYONE to do as he does? I guess I missed that. Lots of funny people here. If he was telling everyone he is LOADING up the boat, he would be called a PUMPER or PERMABULL and be castigated as well. He says he is SHORT and he is a TROLL or whatever else.
Maybe he should just criticize everyone else's calls and not make any of his own? That seems to be the standard practice here for some.
PS To ALL the smart folks here who think they fully understand COMEX, please give us a prediction based upon your immense knowledge and understanding of the market, just ONE. I am begging. What's that I hear?-, nothing. just some crickets chirping away.....
Just my opinion.
Jim
I have numerous times even in contradiction to your own "gut feeling" predictions, but you only read what you want to read
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
Caput Lupinum said:
I said that one time. Yes I have made wrong calls. I can admit that, unlike some here. Why not show me one you made that was correct? Just one please. I don't want you to waste your time searching all the correct calls you made here. I am sure they number in the hundreds at least.
Unlike some, I am here to learn. I don't need to pretend that I am an investment guru because I am not.
PS I am not talking about your amazing call the Fed would not raise. I realize that economists gave that less than 5% chance of happening. I didn't try to "predict" that, just said I had a gut feeling it would happen. Tell us about your calls for PM prices or movements. That's what I am referring to.
Just my opinion.
Jim
Jim4silver said:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-71646-gold-nearing-important-levels.html <----- Predicting the most recent bottom in the gold price on the 3rd of February using technical analysis
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
Caput Lupinum said:
That looked more like an either or type of call. Perhaps was quite prescient. However, I mean more like: Gold is going up to $X, or gold is going to fall to $x, or I am going long here, I am going short here, etc.
Here's mine: Silver may go up, silver may go down, the dollar may go up then silver will go down, or maybe the dollar will go up and silver will go sideways, or silver may go up and the dollar will go up too, etc.
Lots of facts and events in the disjunctive. You may be a genius but I am not seeing any definite calls, like our friend Leon made.
Just my opinion.
Jim
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Nothing? The COT says something, not all, but something: the forward component within the spot price.Caput Lupinum said:
Being the part of the price that is due to "fake" orders, orders that are given but get prematurely cancelled 99% of the time.
For a reason: hedging, it could be called "manipulation", but that's a heavy loaded word, in the end it's only people that try to avoid to be inflicted an extra cost, or receive less profit than planned.
Ex, suppose the total net position on the futures market rises, but the spot price drops, then that just means that other market sides caused a bigger opposite price effect than the futures market's forward part, resulting in a net dropping spot.
Leons errors are that he selects / focuses on trader classes and that he ignores those other market sides.
The 'COT', the futures market, all it is, is an order for an amount commodity, an order whose existence alters the price already before it's executed, and in 99% of the cases cancelled instead of executed, simply because someone that wants to hedge a 5000 ounces order on the cash market, doesn't want another 5000 ounces, instead he wants dollars that compensate for an extra cost in the case of a price change till the time of cash market delivery and payment.
So, there is a defined mathematical relation between COT net position and spot price, only that sometimes it doesn't translate to a correlation, because other factors weaken, or even overrule, it.
If there is a high correlation, then it could suffice to monitor only the COT. Leons COT focus can be correct, IF he knows that other factors are ignorable.
In recent years, 2011 may+ the COT / futures market was highly correlated to the price trend. At least on the term cycles of the futures contracts, probably caused by dealers stock replenishing > hedging it > selling it. Before, 2010-2011 may, it was more stable and stayed around a 50000 high.
So, it's like you say, but "purely" or not, depends on that.
And as last, Leon, anyone can be wrong. Leon can go short then see a price rising, and lose, and all those that did the same, losing with him. There are also folks out there, that say to go long, with their ass bend over the edge of their chair, and their finger hovering the sell button. Funny detail: no criticism to be seen.
As Jim4silver said, Leon just tells what he does, whether or not that reads as a please do it too, is up to the reader. There are more explicit calls haha.
Some place overattention to COT, some say it says nothing.
Well, what COT says, is a sure thing with a week lag: the forward component in the spot price.
There aren't many sure things with a week lag out there. Take for ex central banks buying / selling gold. They (allow?) reporting it in later years...
So despite the COT indeed not saying everything, it says... something, and a sure thing. And sometimes, it says alot (high correlation). Those that swapped every X months fiat to silver and did that post 2011 may only at moments of bottom COT position, paid alot less than those that did it at top, and anything inbetween, COT position moments.
Criticism doesn't have to be an "it's all wrong" to make the point.
Your friend Leon is not predicting anything. Anyone can look at the COT report and say gold is going up or down based on the changes in commercial positions. Using that one indicator on is own isn't going to be very accurate particularly when he ignores what the rest of the report is telling him and then blames manipulation when he gets it wrong.
I always hedge my positions by placing pre orders on both sides of the trade and by using multiple markets like forex and/or futures. That's what someone who actually trades for living does.
So long as gold can hold the $1190-$1200 level, the next major resistance is $1310 which is the January 2015 high. What will drive gold up to $1310 will be further deterioration in US macroeconomic data decreasing the chance of the Fed raising rates in June and weakening the US dollar. The COT report will reflect that as it plays out by increases in large and small speculator positions as well as higher open interest levels.
I always hedge my positions by placing pre orders on both sides of the trade and by using multiple markets like forex and/or futures. That's what someone who actually trades for living does.
So long as gold can hold the $1190-$1200 level, the next major resistance is $1310 which is the January 2015 high. What will drive gold up to $1310 will be further deterioration in US macroeconomic data decreasing the chance of the Fed raising rates in June and weakening the US dollar. The COT report will reflect that as it plays out by increases in large and small speculator positions as well as higher open interest levels.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
The Yellow Metal in United States Dollars.
1970 35.94
1971 40.80
1972 58.16
1973 97.32
1974 159.26
1975 161.02
1976 124.84
1977 147.71
1978 193.22
1979 306.68
1980 612.56
1981 460.03
1982 375.67
1983 424.35
1984 360.48
1985 317.26
1986 367.66
1987 446.46
1988 436.94
1989 381.44
1990 383.51
1991 362.11
1992 343.82
1993 359.77
1994 384.00
1995 384.17
1996 387.77
1997 330.98
1998 294.24
1999 278.88
2000 279.11
2001 271.04
2002 309.73
2003 363.38
2004 409.72
2005 444.74
2006 603.46
2007 695.39
2008 871.96
2009 972.35
2010 1224.53
2011 1571.52
2012 1668.98
2013 1411.23
2014 1266.40
2015 1160.06
2016Q1 1177.29
The Yellow Metal Sold by the Counterfeiters known as Central Banks:
1997 326 $330.98
1998 363 $294.24
1999 477 $278.88
2000 479 $279.11
2001 520 $271.04
2002 547 $309.73
2003 620 $363.38
2004 479 $409.72
2005 663 $444.74
2006 365 $603.46
2007 484 $695.39
2008 235 $871.96
2009 34 $972.35
>>> 5592 tonnes gold SOLD over the period 1997-2009
2010 -77
2011 -455
2012 -544.1
2013 -625.5
2014 -583.9
2015 -588.4
>>> 2873.9 tonnes gold BOUGHT over the period 2010-2015
I think golds price is now in the hands of the Counterfeiters.
What would golds price now have been, without their annual 600 tonnes from-market grab?
Apparently, the other demand didn't suffice to keep the price above $1000.
After our good 'ol Counterfeiters switch their button back to sell modus, I may consider some gold.
Though I prefer silver, especially at high GSR. Very likely the Couterfeiter Club now "supports" gold price to promote silver>gold swaps, to then switch the button and laugh about the green gold faces.
I think I'll stay on the silver boat
1970 35.94
1971 40.80
1972 58.16
1973 97.32
1974 159.26
1975 161.02
1976 124.84
1977 147.71
1978 193.22
1979 306.68
1980 612.56
1981 460.03
1982 375.67
1983 424.35
1984 360.48
1985 317.26
1986 367.66
1987 446.46
1988 436.94
1989 381.44
1990 383.51
1991 362.11
1992 343.82
1993 359.77
1994 384.00
1995 384.17
1996 387.77
1997 330.98
1998 294.24
1999 278.88
2000 279.11
2001 271.04
2002 309.73
2003 363.38
2004 409.72
2005 444.74
2006 603.46
2007 695.39
2008 871.96
2009 972.35
2010 1224.53
2011 1571.52
2012 1668.98
2013 1411.23
2014 1266.40
2015 1160.06
2016Q1 1177.29
The Yellow Metal Sold by the Counterfeiters known as Central Banks:
1997 326 $330.98
1998 363 $294.24
1999 477 $278.88
2000 479 $279.11
2001 520 $271.04
2002 547 $309.73
2003 620 $363.38
2004 479 $409.72
2005 663 $444.74
2006 365 $603.46
2007 484 $695.39
2008 235 $871.96
2009 34 $972.35
>>> 5592 tonnes gold SOLD over the period 1997-2009
2010 -77
2011 -455
2012 -544.1
2013 -625.5
2014 -583.9
2015 -588.4
>>> 2873.9 tonnes gold BOUGHT over the period 2010-2015
I think golds price is now in the hands of the Counterfeiters.
What would golds price now have been, without their annual 600 tonnes from-market grab?
Apparently, the other demand didn't suffice to keep the price above $1000.
After our good 'ol Counterfeiters switch their button back to sell modus, I may consider some gold.
Though I prefer silver, especially at high GSR. Very likely the Couterfeiter Club now "supports" gold price to promote silver>gold swaps, to then switch the button and laugh about the green gold faces.
I think I'll stay on the silver boat
*yawn* The factual reasons that determines the direction of the gold price for those that want to learn without the bullsh*t manipulation theories.
1 real interest rates, as determined by the difference in market-derived inflation expectations and nominal interest rates
2 the trend in credit spreads
3 the steepness of the yield curve
4 the trend of the US dollar
5 faith in the banking system's solvency
6 faith in the monetary authority
7 faith in government more generally (with a special focus on fiscal policy)
8 the trend in risk asset prices
9 the relative performance of financial stocks vs the broad market
10 the rate of change in money supply growth
11 the demand for money and the desire to increase precautionary savings
12 the trend in economic confidence in general
13 the trend in commodity prices
14 silversale
I also believe silver is greatly undervalued compared to gold which is shows in the GSR. I have no issue investing in both
1 real interest rates, as determined by the difference in market-derived inflation expectations and nominal interest rates
2 the trend in credit spreads
3 the steepness of the yield curve
4 the trend of the US dollar
5 faith in the banking system's solvency
6 faith in the monetary authority
7 faith in government more generally (with a special focus on fiscal policy)
8 the trend in risk asset prices
9 the relative performance of financial stocks vs the broad market
10 the rate of change in money supply growth
11 the demand for money and the desire to increase precautionary savings
12 the trend in economic confidence in general
13 the trend in commodity prices
14 silversale
I also believe silver is greatly undervalued compared to gold which is shows in the GSR. I have no issue investing in both
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Hey yawning, does a central bank that buys, or sells, a truckload gold from the market, influence the gold price, or not?Caput Lupinum said:
Hey yawning (2), what has "manipulation theories" to do with that truckload and price influence? It's just supply/demand figures, you know, those thingies that... drive the price.
And I invested in gold nor silver.
I see investing as buying equipment / paying people in order to produce more in order to realize more income.
The dead metal silver I buy, will be the same dead metal silver I sell. Not investing, just stockpiling like a squirrel in autumn to destockpile like a squirrel in winter.
Then wouldn't it be more constructive for you to start a company where you can plough your profits into capital expenditure and wage increases and leave the dead metals for the suckers? Probably wouldn't want to invest in any equipment that has dead metals in it like silver, gold, copper, iron ore, zinc, nickel, lead etc you don't want to end up a sucker
Jim4silver
Well-Known Member
Caput Lupinum said:
Do you know if gold/silver is going up or down in the next week or weeks? If you don't know, that is fine too. Just curious.
Jim
Caput is right.Jim4silver said:
It is interesting that you have subtly categorised traders as "predictors". If you are here to learn (as you stated above), then the first and most important lesson in trading is to get rid of the "predictor" mindset - it will wreak havoc with your decision-making, judgement, trading psych and ego. It also insinuates you need to be accurate, or "right", in your predictions to make money - and the need to be right will also affect your trading results via the psychological factors mentioned above.
Traders who make consistent money are not predicting anything, but rather playing the probability game, combined with risk management that produces a positive expectancy, resulting consistently positive pay-offs.
You can see this type of probability play in Caput's post - orders on both sides with an "if/then" type of logic for trade entries based on the probability of price moves in either direction.