Another round of smackdown is ahead for Gold and Silver

kitty just got the smack
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Caput Lupinum said:
Will it ever cross your mind that COT analysis is ONLY one of many leading indicators for the gold and silver price and that it is not always accurate even with a time delay? So long as large and small speculators are supporting the positions or selling the positions, they can keep the commercials from dictating the price. Wouldn't all traders simply follow the commercial positions if it was always accurate?
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Did it ever cross YOUR mind that certain leading indicators have high historical correlations with certain "results" when said leading indicators reach what are thought to be extreme readings in one direction or another?

Of course that doesn't mean the market MUST do anything in particular, but since nobody really knows for sure what will happen next, all we have are leading indicators and the history of market movements when said indicators show certain things.

PS What did your leading indicators tell you over the past 5 years as PM's fell on a consistent basis?

Just my opinion.

Jim
 
Silver falls back to the consolidation range; break-out failed. Usually it will go the other way to test the lower limit of the range.

Which is about 15 USD. I plan to close half of my short position if that happens; at least. ;)
 
I am starting to doubt my call for PM's going lower in the near term. Not due to any technical or market data- instead it is because I have seen a few of the perma bull pundits out there are now saying we are going to see a drop. Mind you, these are some folks who have been wrong on a regular basis over the past few years (I won't name names).

Because these pundits have been wrong so much, I am starting to think that we won't fall much, if at all. The only thing still making me think a drop is coming is the COT data. If it weren't for that I'd say we're going up. Simply because the most unreliable pundits can make for the most reliable calls if you do the opposite of what they say.

Just my opinion.

Jim
 
Jim4silver said:
I am starting to doubt my call for PM's going lower in the near term. Not due to any technical or market data- instead it is because I have seen a few of the perma bull pundits out there are now saying we are going to see a drop. Mind you, these are some folks who have been wrong on a regular basis over the past few years (I won't name names).

Because these pundits have been wrong so much, I am starting to think that we won't fall much, if at all. The only thing still making me think a drop is coming is the COT data. If it weren't for that I'd say we're going up. Simply because the most unreliable pundits can make for the most reliable calls if you do the opposite of what they say.

Just my opinion.

Jim
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I've been keeping most of my powder dry for one more drop for the sam reason. The commercials are way short now.
 
Jim4silver said:
PS What did your leading indicators tell you over the past 5 years as PM's fell on a consistent basis?

Jim
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Short gold and silver and buy puts as a hedge against my physical holdings

My leading indicators are no longer telling me to do that :cool:
 
My silver short position was stopped out @15.4 this afternoon.

Fed announcement really trigger the precious metal rally. :(
 
leon1998 said:
Yellen makes me believe that gold and silver have turned the tide; US dollar is going down in the long run.
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Will be interesting to see how much the US dollar can go down if everyone else is trying to push their own dollars lower first....
 
serial said:
So how much did you lose?
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This much. it's leon's favourite game, all the kids at school play it these days.

btw you're better off spending time analyzing what the fed will do then COT reports. FED jabber leads markets while COT follows.

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leon1998 said:
My silver short position was stopped out @15.4 this afternoon.

Fed announcement really trigger the precious metal rally. :(
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Faith no more? ;)
 
leon1998 said:
Yellen makes me believe that gold and silver have turned the tide; US dollar is going down in the long run.
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Yet only a few months back everyone was yelling that the USD will go to the moon and be the last man standing, sell everything, buy USD :rolleyes:
 
SilverDJ said:
leon1998 said:
Yellen makes me believe that gold and silver have turned the tide; US dollar is going down in the long run.
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Yet only a few months back everyone was yelling that the USD will go to the moon and be the last man standing, sell everything, buy USD :rolleyes:
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That was a short-term play. The USD to AUD was pretty strong reaching almost .69:1 now the USD is weakening. I was lucky enough to pick up some stuff from perth mint, but was going to make a buy from perth bullion if currency and spot was low, but there came a divergence. If he's following weekly charts, one has to understand the calls aren't out very far. It's not like a stacker mentality where it goes in one direction. The market changes, as long as you can adapt to changes then he's at least adjusting. So this comment is a little unfair. The USD was by itself for a month or two but swung down quite a bit in the last month only.
 
We need above $16.25 with heavy volume to confirm breakout from the cup/handle. Things are looking good but we have seen this all before, go you bit#h.
 
Almost got caught by this huge price surge above $16, wow.

My understanding is that, swap dealers/banksters probably have closed quite some short position leading to the FOMC; since they probably already knew Fed's transcript. ;)
 
leon1998 said:
My understanding is that, swap dealers/banksters probably have closed quite some short position leading to the FOMC; since they probably already knew Fed's transcript. ;)
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Of course, of course.
Faith didn't go as-planned, so must be conspiracy..... Gotta lay blame off somewhere, right?
 
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