Holdfast said:Rule 01
Never listen to a mining CEO.
Rule 02
Believe all CEO's and dealers who sell physical metal for fiat.
Rule 03
Historical charts (Trends) are your friend.
$13 silver might be possible
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
Ilikemetals
Member
That'd be nice. Especially because the AUD is heading towards $0.5USD so we need as much of a discount to offset our currency decline. There has to be a point where there isn't any supply at some level however, because i'm pretty sure the all in cost of mining silver isn't far off from where we are already. Then again, oil has gone down so that cost is also going down.
Still a while to drop though - remember guys, deflation in commodities comes first. So there is still plenty of time, no rush. Go do something good with your life in the meantime.
Still a while to drop though - remember guys, deflation in commodities comes first. So there is still plenty of time, no rush. Go do something good with your life in the meantime.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
A new snapshot of the hedge:
10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1
To compare with a previous similar price:
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16
Note: again based on a 10000 contracts bottom hedge.
Conclusion: nothing changed much over these 3 months, meaning a $14 bottom is more likely than a $13 one (if any).
The unknown element is again the Exchange Traded Fund side.
To give the evolution of the biggest one (in ounces):
2014/12/01 350,158,280.00 $15.73 PEAK X
2014/12/02 347,427,315.10 $16.16
2014/12/04 345,223,919.70 $16.42
2014/12/11 342,350,201.70 $16.98
2014/12/12 341,009,164.10 $17.07 BOTTOM PEAK
2014/12/17 338,997,763.10 $15.95
2014/12/19 338,135,759.30 $15.86
2014/12/23 332,293,606.30 $15.71
2014/12/24 330,569,731.90 $15.77
2014/12/26 330,138,768.70 $15.77
2014/12/30 329,564,166.70 $15.79
2015/01/07 328,457,815.00 $16.33
2015/01/09 327,979,086.00 $16.24
2015/01/15 325,011,041.00 $17.12
2015/01/23 319,314,728.30 $18.23
2015/02/02 320,463,377.90 $17.59
2015/02/13 320,327,936.40 $16.86
2015/02/18 324,299,395.10 $16.42
2015/02/23 325,734,790.10 $16.20
2015/03/02 326,117,526.90 $16.42
2015/03/03 325,992,632.10 $16.32
2015/03/05 327,332,121.30 $16.19
(prices derived from http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2015D.gif being the london fix price, since it's likely that multi Moz deals occur at that price)
One can see that they returned to buying a month ago. They so far bought back 7 Moz back of the 30 Moz they sold before (over this term, since start decembers 350 Moz). 23 Moz to go.
But it's also possible that they sell 150 Moz, it would be just copying golds story of end 2012 > april 2013.
Likely accompanied with a central banks net purchases drop big enough to hammer golds price down an equal degree.
Though, as long as the stock market stays on its decade high levels (and thus decade low outlook on increasings), there may be no better alternative for that time being.
10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1
To compare with a previous similar price:
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16
Note: again based on a 10000 contracts bottom hedge.
Conclusion: nothing changed much over these 3 months, meaning a $14 bottom is more likely than a $13 one (if any).
The unknown element is again the Exchange Traded Fund side.
To give the evolution of the biggest one (in ounces):
2014/12/01 350,158,280.00 $15.73 PEAK X
2014/12/02 347,427,315.10 $16.16
2014/12/04 345,223,919.70 $16.42
2014/12/11 342,350,201.70 $16.98
2014/12/12 341,009,164.10 $17.07 BOTTOM PEAK
2014/12/17 338,997,763.10 $15.95
2014/12/19 338,135,759.30 $15.86
2014/12/23 332,293,606.30 $15.71
2014/12/24 330,569,731.90 $15.77
2014/12/26 330,138,768.70 $15.77
2014/12/30 329,564,166.70 $15.79
2015/01/07 328,457,815.00 $16.33
2015/01/09 327,979,086.00 $16.24
2015/01/15 325,011,041.00 $17.12
2015/01/23 319,314,728.30 $18.23
2015/02/02 320,463,377.90 $17.59
2015/02/13 320,327,936.40 $16.86
2015/02/18 324,299,395.10 $16.42
2015/02/23 325,734,790.10 $16.20
2015/03/02 326,117,526.90 $16.42
2015/03/03 325,992,632.10 $16.32
2015/03/05 327,332,121.30 $16.19
(prices derived from http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2015D.gif being the london fix price, since it's likely that multi Moz deals occur at that price)
One can see that they returned to buying a month ago. They so far bought back 7 Moz back of the 30 Moz they sold before (over this term, since start decembers 350 Moz). 23 Moz to go.
But it's also possible that they sell 150 Moz, it would be just copying golds story of end 2012 > april 2013.
Likely accompanied with a central banks net purchases drop big enough to hammer golds price down an equal degree.
Though, as long as the stock market stays on its decade high levels (and thus decade low outlook on increasings), there may be no better alternative for that time being.
HattieTheWitch
New Member
How does one go about buying foreign currencies? (excluding at travel agencies, for instance)phrenzy said:
Thank you.
silverprepper999
New Member
Easiest way is to open account in bank for foreign currency, and transfer and convert money to that account
HattieTheWitch said:
Silver prepper has the right idea. I opened up a foreign currency account at my local bank branch, took about 10 minutes. You have to tell them what currencies you intend to use (probably dollars now to turn into euro when they break below parity or just USD for turning back into AUD). The big thing is not exchanging your money through the bank, their rates are beyond a joke given that they will give you brilliant wholesale rates if your using them to trade foreign shares. You want to use an exchange agent like ozforex, you just tell them where you want the converted money to go (your new foreign currency account) and then bank transfer them the australian dollars to fund it. Their rates are pretty good. There are a few small fees involved but for anything over about $2k it's probably worth it.
Your other option is to try and buy cash at spot from someone who's come back from the states and doesn't want to lose 5% at the forex window to get their aussie dollars back. This is what I ended up doing and never used my foreign currency account but then your stuck with whatever is available.
Frankly if I had gone ahead with my original plan to exchange a big whack I'd have been way ahead. I wasn't doing it just to make money on the dollars but so that if gold hit $1k USD I would have the hard USD to take advantage. In the end I only ended up with $1200 usd for around $1400 which is ok and will buy me an ounce but I wish I went through with it. To be fair though I did use the money to pick up some $620 perth mint AG kilos and other stuff when we bottomed so I don't feel too bad.
You could look at CFD's as a hedge which amounts to the same thing with fewer fees but you have to have a hedging strategy and stick to it. I did it for a while but couldn't help playing at trading and made a little money but lost more. If I had put $350 down at 1:100 and short aud/usd back then I'd be laughing and because I was short I would have earned interest. I didn't lose much at all but I should have made money.
Anyway, the first two paragraphs are what you need.
HattieTheWitch
New Member
Goodness! THANKS KINDLY to you and silverprepper999.phrenzy said:
First, I live in the US, and it seems like part of your advice is for someone who lives "down under"
, so I'm not quite sure what to do with parts of your reply. Would you mind rewriting it with that in mind, and please forgive my denseness?A few more questions if I may...
"The big thing is not exchanging your money through the bank, their rates are beyond a joke given that they will give you brilliant wholesale rates if your using them to trade foreign shares. " - are you saying that I should consider trading through my bank for a favorable conversion rate?
What is a CFD?
I'm not clear on what you did with buying gold. Did you convert currencies, then buy it in a foreign currency? I suppose your intent was to gain on the conversion rate AND on a hoped-for rise in the price of gold?
What types of currencies do you suggest I keep and eye on, or consider converting to? The reason I am even considering doing something different than investing in US equities and precious metals is that I figure I should buy things in other parts of the world when things are up "here", and down "there" (currency and/or stocks).
Whatever other information or opinion you want to toss my way I gratefully appreciate.
Thanks so much again.
FYI - the OzForex site looks pretty cool.
For any Americans who may be reading this, isn't there some law about having funds overseas? (like a $$ limit or something?)
HattieTheWitch said:Goodness! THANKS KINDLY to you and silverprepper999.phrenzy said:
First, I live in the US, and it seems like part of your advice is for someone who lives "down under"
A few more questions if I may...
"The big thing is not exchanging your money through the bank, their rates are beyond a joke given that they will give you brilliant wholesale rates if your using them to trade foreign shares. " - are you saying that I should consider trading through my bank for a favorable conversion rate?
What is a CFD?
I'm not clear on what you did with buying gold. Did you convert currencies, then buy it in a foreign currency? I suppose your intent was to gain on the conversion rate AND on a hoped-for rise in the price of gold?
What types of currencies do you suggest I keep and eye on, or consider converting to? The reason I am even considering doing something different than investing in US equities and precious metals is that I figure I should buy things in other parts of the world when things are up "here", and down "there" (currency and/or stocks).
Whatever other information or opinion you want to toss my way I gratefully appreciate.
Thanks so much again.
FYI - the OzForex site looks pretty cool.
For any Americans who may be reading this, isn't there some law about having funds overseas? (like a $$ limit or something?)
Being in the states does make a difference. Here in Australia we were all expecting gold and silver to keep dropping at the end of last year but so was our dollar. If the gold price (which is denominated in US dollars) drops 10% and then our australian dollar drops 15% in the same time it costs us more to buy gold even though the price has dropped. Because I (and everyone else) was expecting a drop in the dollar the idea was to buy some USD while our dollar was doing ok so I could take advantage of lower metal prices later.
For you though it's a similar process but in reverse. Your looking for a currency to bottom out to buy it. If your really worried about inflation or the change in value if the dollar then gold is the easy way to play that, as the US dollar gets stronger then gold gets cheaper (time to buy) and the reverse is true when the dollar gets weaker. There are other factors involved in the gold price but if the dollar index (measuring the strength of the dollar against other major currencies) goes up or down in a big way then gold generally moves with it. If this is your basic concern or idea then I would even out some gold buys, say 1oz at a time (or less depending on your budget) every time the price drops at the same time as the dollar getting stronger. If anything ever goes sour in your economy you will have great protection. I think in US dollars gold is cheap enough to get in now, then just set a rule along the lines of "I'll buy another ounce every time gold drops $25 as long as the dollar is getting stronger". The dollar getting stronger is important because it means that it's partly the reason gold is getting cheaper rather than other factors, thinking about it like that you can imagine gold as a foreign currency that is going down against the dollar. The advantage there is that you don't have to worry about gold's central bank employing short sighed policies or it's economic union breaking up.
If your intention is to make a foreign exchange move in the states then you can do basically the same thing I mentioned earlier with a foreign currency account and forex broker. I'm pretty sure you would find all that in the states. I also don't think you'd have any problems with having money outside the country because it isn't really, it's in a foreign currency but it's held in the states in a local account with a local bank. The euro is the obvious candidate just because it's been smashed but it's going to be hard to pick your moment, it's definately going lower but exactly how much? That's harder to tell. If you have enough money and you find a forex agent with great rates and low fees then you could do the same thing you do with gold and buy a set amount of euro each time it drops a cent or two against the dollar. Obviously you would have to a lot of research into what the Euro is doing and where it's going to do you can pick the best moment to get in (if there ever is a right moment) and when to buy more and, obviously, when to sell. There are plenty of other currencies to look into though, the Euro isn't the only option, hell even the australian dollar might be a candidate.
The foreign currency option could be pretty profitable but there are risks and you need to be pretty on top of what's happening in the pace your investing. The EU could come back with a vengeance against the dollar or it could break up.
As for CFD's there are plenty of good explanations online that are much more detailed than I can provide. Basically you can invest in currencies or commodities with big a large leverage but you don't actually own the product and you only lose or gain the difference between the price when you bought it and even you sold it (thus the name: contract for difference). I would look invi this hard before jumping in though, with big leverage can come big risk and you don't actually own the product so if things really get crazy you might end up with nothing. That's not the case with gold you hold in your hand and a lot less likely with a savings account that's federally insured.
If you have specific questions maybe start a new thread in the appropriate section.
SilverTabbyCat
New Member
HattieTheWitch said:
BOA had the best rates when I had to get yen for my Japan trip.
SilverTabbyCat said:
I don't know about them specifically but I've never seen a bank offer rates that come close to a proper forex broker. In any case anyone thinking about it should really shop around, you might be surprised how much you save.
STC: did you use a foreign currency account at any point? do BOA offer something like that?
Holdfast said:Rule 01
Historical charts are your friend.
The AUD may get a temporary reprieve if the FED delay increasing rates till later in the year. But the long term trajectory is still down for us.Holdfast said:Not yet CJ but if the USD gains strength as predicted, it may go to that level.
Having said that, the falling AUD won't make metal cheaper for us here.
Holdfast said:Not yet CJ but if the USD gains strength as predicted, it may go to that level.
Having said that, the falling AUD won't make metal cheaper for us here.
AUD will go down not up, we will get another rate cut soon.
we will be seeing metals going <------------ SIDEWAYS ---------> for us for the foreseeable future
I defiantly dont predict $36 by easter
S
Silver bullitt
Guest
Court Jester said:Holdfast said:Not yet CJ but if the USD gains strength as predicted, it may go to that level.
Having said that, the falling AUD won't make metal cheaper for us here.
AUD will go down not up, we will get another rate cut soon.
we will be seeing metals going <------------ SIDEWAYS ---------> for us for the foreseeable future
I defiantly dont predict $36 by easter
Well CJ, this <------------------------------------------------- SIDEWAYS--------------------------------------------------> thing of yours used to really piss me off but there comes a time when credit is due.
In the years I have been into gold and silver this has turned out to be the most accurate call I have seen. In fact the only call I have seen that has stayed consistently accurate for this length of time.
I am definitely at the stage where I wish I had taken this call of yours seriously way back when.
I may not have changed my strategy much but my hopes and expectations would have been far more realistic and I would have felt far less disappointed today. :|
Kudos.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Again an update based on futures market situation:
Date TotalNetPositions(of5000ounces) LBMAFix BottompriceBasedOnA10KTotalNetPosition
31/03/2015 49861 $16.60 > $13.75
24/03/2015 39242 $16.97 > $14.88
17/03/2015 30210 $15.56 > $14.1
10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1
03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3
10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
So price outlook seriously dropped. A whole dollar in a single week. 70 Moz was sold more / bought less in the cash market that week.
A good comparison point is the second bold line, 25 nov 2014, same price, but outlook was $15.7 instead of $13.75.
Indicates that the "bear" trend still dominates the market.
Basically, the last bump to $15, is now (1 week ago) again undone.
Date TotalNetPositions(of5000ounces) LBMAFix BottompriceBasedOnA10KTotalNetPosition
31/03/2015 49861 $16.60 > $13.75
24/03/2015 39242 $16.97 > $14.88
17/03/2015 30210 $15.56 > $14.1
10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1
03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3
10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
So price outlook seriously dropped. A whole dollar in a single week. 70 Moz was sold more / bought less in the cash market that week.
A good comparison point is the second bold line, 25 nov 2014, same price, but outlook was $15.7 instead of $13.75.
Indicates that the "bear" trend still dominates the market.
Basically, the last bump to $15, is now (1 week ago) again undone.
Gatito Bandito
Active Member
Silver bullitt said:
One truly needs to define "<------------ SIDEWAYS --------->"..
Using USD terms, one could have purchased at $14.50 last November
It subsequently hit around $18.50 in January..
That's a 27.5% return in just 2-3 months.
I'd say if that had been an ROI in, say, the stock/share market, most people wouldn't be calling that "sideways"..
But, whatever floats one's boat..
mmissinglink
Active Member
Gatito Bandito said:Silver bullitt said:
One truly needs to define "<------------ SIDEWAYS --------->"..
Using USD terms, one could have purchased at $14.50 last November
It subsequently hit around $18.50 in January..
That's a 27.5% return in just 2-3 months.
I'd say if that had been an ROI in, say, the stock/share market, most people wouldn't be calling that "sideways"..
But, whatever floats one's boat..
Maybe the difference is in the context of different time frames.
.
Gatito Bandito
Active Member
mmissinglink said:
Not only that, but also product selection..
Example: If one had purchased a Lunar Skull proof for $89.90 back in November, they could have easily sold it for *double* what they paid (if not more).
And actually, some members here did just that.
In what world is a 100% tax-free return within a month or three still considered "sideways"??
Sorry, but continuing to parrot the "sideways" mantra like a broken record is, in fact, bunk.