$13 silver might be possible

[Clawhammer]

Haven't heard from him during this whole bear market.

 

[dccpa]

I wish StellaConcepts was still posting... he knew what was going to happen.

:lol:

 

[leon1998]

Don't be fooled by the technical analysis.

Commercial Traders are sitting on mountains of short position against gold. However, buyers are hard to find at the moment; so the defending of $1,200 seems to be a bull-trap than anything else. I am afraid much lower spot price is ahead.

And silver will be no exception.

 

[leon1998]

FYI, several online bullion dealers are running specials frequently.

Apparently, they're comfortable to sell at the current price. And that should raise your eyebrow.

 

[Ronnie 666]

Don't be fooled by the technical analysis.

Commercial Traders are sitting on mountains of short position against gold. However, buyers are hard to find at the moment; so the defending of $1,200 seems to be a bull-trap than anything else. I am afraid much lower spot price is ahead.

And silver will be no exception.

Don't be fooled by all analysis including your comments of much lower prices. You know that how ??
The PM markets are impossible to predict in the short term. Long term we all know this fiat system is doomed and metals will retain value.

 

[dccpa]

FYI, several online bullion dealers are running specials frequently.

Apparently, they're comfortable to sell at the current price. And that should raise your eyebrow.

Dealers run specials year round. Dealers are hedged and make money off the premium differences, not the price movement of silver. Ask Tulving how it worked out not hedging his pms.

 

[Pirocco]

FYI, several online bullion dealers are running specials frequently.

Apparently, they're comfortable to sell at the current price. And that should raise your eyebrow.

Dealers run specials year round. Dealers are hedged and make money off the premium differences, not the price movement of silver. Ask Tulving how it worked out not hedging his pms.

The taking of those hedging positions itself, drives the price too.
What else sits behind those typical 3-4 months price fluctuations, with the net total amount hedging positions going up and down with them?
They order a stock replenishment, and take the hedging positions with it. The replenishment drives the price up, the hedging drives it up an equal (100% hedge case) amount.
And then, their customers are supposed to pay those higher prices, until that stock got sold again, after which the story repeats.

About Tulving, I've seen that statement of not hedging several times.
I've also seen this:
http://about.ag/tulving.htm

January 21, 2015 2:15PM EST
My original theory had been that The Tulving Company had been speculating in the commodities market (e.g. going long in futures or options, well beyond what would have been needed for hedging). From information I have since received, this theory has been proven wrong.

Another similar theory that had been spreading on the Internet is that The Tulving Company's losses were caused by improperly calculated hedging. For example, waiting too long to hedge an order (with a price swing in the meantime), or hedging for much more/less metal than is needed (which can happen with futures contracts, which are usually 100oz for gold and 5,000oz for silver). While the choice of hedging strategy may have played a role, the improperly calculated hedge theory can pretty much be ruled out as well (those who may think that I am wrong, feel free to come up with a hedging scenario that would result in loss as metals prices go down).

Right now, it sounds like it may really boil down to high expenses (with the possibility of a significant amount of those expenses unnecessary for various reasons). It is also likely that to some extent expenses added up over the course of years. For example, at a sales level of $350M/year, you could absorb a $2M expense simply by delaying orders an extra 2 days, which could go unnoticed. In that case, as sales volume goes down, the delays would get longer.

Bullion dealers and speculators / stackers are eachothers financial enemy. That's something important to realize. Speculators try to buy low sell high, and if they succeed, someone has to lose, pay that high / sell that low. The futures market was invented to battle speculators. Without a futures market, bullion dealers would need to openly refuse to buy back, their speculating customers of course not liking that. A futures market
is basically nothing but a disguised refusal, based on a price that is driven up / down twice as much as speculators would have caused.

 

[Gatito Bandito]

FYI, several online bullion dealers are running specials frequently.

Apparently, they're comfortable to sell at the current price. And that should raise your eyebrow.

My local grocery stores are having a sale on cereal.

They must know something about the future price of grains..

 

[mmissinglink]

I've called, about 30 months ago, USD $14 silver as the low for this bear market...we came close to that last year and I'm still calling $14 silver (give or take a few cents) before we see anything resembling a return to a long term mean which would precede a true bull market.

Back in late November it *very* briefly spiked down to $14.20, where a boatload of contracts changed hands..

Was over so quickly that it was probably pretty much impossible for a human to grab physical at that level. My best at that moment was $14.77 -- I recall somebody here snagged some around $14.50.


That $14.20 does not qualify as "give or take a few cents"??

It's less than a 1.5% difference to your $14..

I don't get your contention, it doesn't make sense my friend. I never claimed $14.20 was a few cents but I did state I am calling $14 give or take a few cents. The fact that we both recall some stacker here catching physical buy price of around $14.50 means that it's certainly possible for stackers to be able to buy when it hits right around that USD $14 mark.



.

 

[dccpa]

Pirocco, I am not going to read your whole message. Several years ago, I read an article where Tulving admitted that at times, he did not hedge. Anything else is internet speculation.

 

[lurk@l0t]

The lower we go the better. My third ounce will be far more affordable.

People who want the price to go up must be thinking of selling, who'd want to do a silly thing like that?

It worries me when it goes up because I don't think I have enough and I've been told that too much is barely enough by Sammy.

My ultimate dream is the AUD goes up and silver goes down.... that'd be sweet!

That wont be happening anytime soon - perhaps never! :lol:

 

[lurk@l0t]

June 2006 spot was $10.09 USD

November 2008 spot was $9.50 USD

November 2014 spot was $15.39 USD

2015 ? Some say $9.80 USD

Silver has got to be one of the shittiest investments of all time??!! :lol:

 

[Pirocco]

Pirocco, I am not going to read your whole message. Several years ago, I read an article where Tulving admitted that at times, he did not hedge. Anything else is internet speculation.

That article you've read years ago wasn't "internet speculation"?

That page I linked, not my post, has alot data about the Tulving case.
Maybe that illustrates a difference between you and me. I have no problem reading whole messages and visiting sources as to check if any contradictions or biases. Reality, is often more than an article, and a refusal to collect information is popular among those that start with a conclusion instead of information.

If bullion dealers want, they can hold up their futures positions for years, holding silvers price artificially up that way, so that their customers have to pay more bucks / receive less ounces.
What makes them dump their positions: when they are confronted with buy back requests. In order to avoid having to pay that artificially higher price, they quickly dump their futures positions so that customers receive less bucks for their ounces.

In contrary to what is claimed alot times: hedging isn't like a sure safety umbrella. It's not hedging or not hedging. It's trying to have a correct hedge, meaning a hedge that is throttled to what is hedged against.
That's taking additional / dumping existing positions, in an attempt to evade having to pay too much, or get too less, from speculators. Bring up that article you've read.

 

[dccpa]

Pirocco, I am not going to read your whole message. Several years ago, I read an article where Tulving admitted that at times, he did not hedge. Anything else is internet speculation.

That article you've read years ago wasn't "internet speculation"?

That page I linked, not my post, has alot data about the Tulving case.
Maybe that illustrates a difference between you and me. I have no problem reading whole messages and visiting sources as to check if any contradictions or biases. Reality, is often more than an article, and a refusal to collect information is popular among those that start with a conclusion instead of information.

If bullion dealers want, they can hold up their futures positions for years, holding silvers price artificially up that way, so that their customers have to pay more bucks / receive less ounces.
What makes them dump their positions: when they are confronted with buy back requests. In order to avoid having to pay that artificially higher price, they quickly dump their futures positions so that customers receive less bucks for their ounces.

In contrary to what is claimed alot times: hedging isn't like a sure safety umbrella. It's not hedging or not hedging. It's trying to have a correct hedge, meaning a hedge that is throttled to what is hedged against.
That's taking additional / dumping existing positions, in an attempt to evade having to pay too much, or get too less, from speculators. Bring up that article you've read.

Yes, I have better things to do with my time.

 

[leon1998]

APMEX is selling gold @spot; wonder when will they do the same for silver?

 

[BoliverT.]

APMEX is selling gold @spot; wonder when will they do the same for silver?

Next week according to my charts, silver prices will nose dive to such lows it will cost more to store and not be worth the shelf space it takes up.I predict they may let it go for the price of shipping and handling. Just saying although I could be wrong.

 

[mmissinglink]

APMEX is selling gold @spot; wonder when will they do the same for silver?

Next week according to my charts, silver prices will nose dive to such lows it will cost more to store and not be worth the shelf space it takes up.I predict they may let it go for the price of shipping and handling. Just saying although I could be wrong.

Don't you mean your crystal ball, not your charts?



.

 

[Silver bullitt]

APMEX is selling gold @spot; wonder when will they do the same for silver?

Next week according to my charts, silver prices will nose dive to such lows it will cost more to store and not be worth the shelf space it takes up.I predict they may let it go for the price of shipping and handling. Just saying although I could be wrong.

Astrology charts?

 

[leon1998]

silver marching to $15

 

[Pirocco]

Pirocco, I am not going to read your whole message. Several years ago, I read an article where Tulving admitted that at times, he did not hedge. Anything else is internet speculation.

That article you've read years ago wasn't "internet speculation"?

That page I linked, not my post, has alot data about the Tulving case.
Maybe that illustrates a difference between you and me. I have no problem reading whole messages and visiting sources as to check if any contradictions or biases. Reality, is often more than an article, and a refusal to collect information is popular among those that start with a conclusion instead of information.

If bullion dealers want, they can hold up their futures positions for years, holding silvers price artificially up that way, so that their customers have to pay more bucks / receive less ounces.
What makes them dump their positions: when they are confronted with buy back requests. In order to avoid having to pay that artificially higher price, they quickly dump their futures positions so that customers receive less bucks for their ounces.

In contrary to what is claimed alot times: hedging isn't like a sure safety umbrella. It's not hedging or not hedging. It's trying to have a correct hedge, meaning a hedge that is throttled to what is hedged against.
That's taking additional / dumping existing positions, in an attempt to evade having to pay too much, or get too less, from speculators. Bring up that article you've read.

Yes, I have better things to do with my time.

You made time to claim smthg about Tulving based on an unspecified article from years ago.
That's your 'better thing'?