$13 silver might be possible
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
Pirocco said:You made time to claim smthg about Tulving based on an unspecified article from years ago.dccpa said:Pirocco said:
Yes, I have better things to do with my time.
That's your 'better thing'?
No, I read a quote from Tulving where he stated that at times he did not hedge. If you want to use some article to argue with what the man himself said, go for it. Enough wasted time here for me.
leon1998 said:silver marching to $15
Unfortunately for those of us in australia $15 silver will probably coincide with the aussie at about $0.72 which means it's still more expensive than it was at the end of last year. In fact, even $14 silver doesn't get us to where we were in q4 last year.
I wouldn't be looking at it just yet but if your in the states you should have a think about buying some foreign currency when it looks like things have bottomed. A reasonable amount of the future silver and gold price rise in the future for you will be in USD weakness, not all but enough. If the Euro hits parity or the aussie hits 0.70 then it might be worth looking into for you. That's when I'm calling in my USD (unless I use it for metals before then).
lurk@l0t said:
Maybe...maybe not.
There's many reasons to buy and sell or buy and hold and of course many folk have a methodology according to their age, knowledge and life outcomes.
There's folk who have purchased coins which are holding good gains.
Folk who have purchased bullion bars or the larger coins back in November 2014 are still in the Black (Jet black actually)
If the AUD falls further, folk who hold will continue to hedge in the black.
Folk who diversify have nothing to fear imo.
Sure...those folk who loaded up when silver was spot 46 plus could have kept their money in the bank or purchased CBA, TLS, etc and then sold with a profit to buy Ag at lower prices but .....they have missed some of the best semi-numi plays which they'll never be able to buy at dealer or mint prices again. (Check the prices of some of the 2oz Kooks and Lunars, 5oz Lunars, Kilo, Mouse, Ox, etc.
With any market there will be highs and lows and of course there's folk who would just rather buy something solid rather than paper.
For interest sake, why not check some of these miners and how investors ended loosing their money: (Gold miners not Ag but...you get my drift)
Bendigo Mining Ltd :BDG" (Goodnight $)
Tanami Gold "TAM" (Goodnight $)
Croesus "CRS" (Goodnight $) - Now "Sirius" (Yuk)
Newcrest "NCM" (Goodnight $)
St Barbara Ltd "SBM" (Goodnight $)
Etc etc etc.
Now go check how many of the larger miners who have plans to off load non performing mines, and the intent to merge and have a look at the Zip money going into junior explorers or indeed large companies who by-product is silver; the slow down is evident and of course the future for not only silver but all precious metal is very rosy indeed.
Lets just hope the falling AUD doesn't slide to 50 if metal prices take a dive.
imo, owning metal is a better idea than owning paper stocks but...that's just my take on things.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Unspecified article.dccpa said:Pirocco said:You made time to claim smthg about Tulving based on an unspecified article from years ago.dccpa said:Yes, I have better things to do with my time.
That's your 'better thing'?
No, I read a quote from Tulving where he stated that at times he did not hedge. If you want to use some article to argue with what the man himself said, go for it. Enough wasted time here for me.
At times.
What men say themselves.
A conclusion is as waste as its arguments are.
And so is your usage of Tulving as a non-hedging dealer - example.
On the logical plane: a hedge of a dealer only works if customers are willing to pay the extra price part that the hedge taking caused.
After some years training (especially the hard way: losing), customers may have become smarter.
The amount bullion dealers increased alot since 2008.
That can only happen when there is more profit to reap.
That profit can only origin from their customers.
The futures markets price mechanism, is a means.
Dealers come and dealers go, with the amount profit to reap.
Tulving went. Just like quite some others.
Some went the specialties way, to try to compensate the lower silver-metal based profits with.
In my EU region, a dozen small local dealers appeared during the so called 'bull market'.
Their websites are quite dead now. Their 'in stock' s looking like some remainders that stayed unsold, at the (old) price tags they sticked on it.
A dealers survival or not, is based on the whole of a market, whether they (try to) hedge, or not.
To draw an example scenario: imagine X dealers that order at bullion banks Y ounces silver (a stock replenishment). Simultaneously they 'set' the silver price that much higher (along an equal ounces represented as futures positions) so that the subsequent sales over the next months will deliver their targeted profit. But customers don't like the higher price, and don't buy what the X dealers thought they would buy. The targeted profit doesn't happen. (A part of) that stock sits there dead unsold. What can dealers only do: lower the price. First by running so-called 'special promotions' (so premium-fiddling), second by driving the market price back down by dumping their futures positions (shrinking their "hedge").
Now tell me, what is this? I'll tell you: that is a (in a degree) failing hedge.
In other words: the presence of a hedge, hedging or not, didn't make the difference. A hedge isn't a sure-safety / sure-profit-lock.
It's not because a particular dealer doesn't hedge, that he became a speculator that wins or loses.
A hedge, is just an attempt whose success depends on others on the market.
The total amount ounces hedged (and thus the price), can go up and down as much and as many times that dealers want.
But they can only hope that their customers will dominantly buy at the higher and sell back at the lower price.
If they don't then, despite hedged, they'll fail just as well.
Hedging and bankruptcy don't exclude eachother.
A dealers hedging, also includes a targeted business profit. In that aspect, just being a dealer already is a speculative position.
Tulvings story, can be, and according to what I've read, also is, more than an 'oh he didn't hedge he had to go bankrupt'.
mmissinglink said:BoliverT. said:leon1998 said:APMEX is selling gold @spot; wonder when will they do the same for silver?
Next week according to my charts, silver prices will nose dive to such lows it will cost more to store and not be worth the shelf space it takes up.I predict they may let it go for the price of shipping and handling. Just saying although I could be wrong.
Don't you mean your crystal ball, not your charts?
.
This was only to point out those who predict what will happen in the future rarely ever get it right, once in a while someone may stumble across one that is right, hell I could say it will snow tomorrow and if I say that long enough someday it will happen not anything to place a bet on.
If anyone can predict what's gonna happen in the future they should be multi-millionaires in a short period of time, I have been buying stock funds for years and if I could tell what tomorrow was going to bring my portfolio would be huge, I would be in the same tax bracket of Bill Gates. So what I wrote was not meant to be a serious response, I assume one would call it making fun of those who claim they can see the future.. Sorry I will add a disclaimer on the next post I make in gesture.
sterling-nz
Well-Known Member
So Bill Gates is super wealthy, lets assume you are not.BoliverT. said:mmissinglink said:BoliverT. said:
Don't you mean your crystal ball, not your charts?
.
This was only to point out those who predict what will happen in the future rarely ever get it right, once in a while someone may stumble across one that is right, hell I could say it will snow tomorrow and if I say that long enough someday it will happen not anything to place a bet on.
If anyone can predict what's gonna happen in the future they should be multi-millionaires in a short period of time, I have been buying stock funds for years and if I could tell what tomorrow was going to bring my portfolio would be huge, I would be in the same tax bracket of Bill Gates. So what I wrote was not meant to be a serious response, I assume one would call it making fun of those who claim they can see the future.. Sorry I will add a disclaimer on the next post I make in gesture.
This means you are probably ALREADY in the same tax bracket and paying a similar amount of tax
:0
Sterling nz wrote: So Bill Gates is super wealthy, lets assume you are not.
This means you are probably ALREADY in the same tax bracket and paying a similar amount of tax
:0
Correct I am not super wealthy, hell I don't even consider myself small wealthy . Bill gate is taxed on capital gains and dividends not earned income as working people are, and no he is not in a zero tax bracket as the liberal media would have people to believe, the wealthiest Americans pay some where around 90% of the tax's and around 50% of Americans pay no tax at all, and I'm not one of those 50% even though I have only unearned,dividens and capital gain tax to pay, no payroll tax as I am not what the government calls a working person. The people that lead you to believe the wealthiest or wealthy people pay no tax is deliberately telling lies and are full of s(%^.
This means you are probably ALREADY in the same tax bracket and paying a similar amount of tax
:0
Correct I am not super wealthy, hell I don't even consider myself small wealthy . Bill gate is taxed on capital gains and dividends not earned income as working people are, and no he is not in a zero tax bracket as the liberal media would have people to believe, the wealthiest Americans pay some where around 90% of the tax's and around 50% of Americans pay no tax at all, and I'm not one of those 50% even though I have only unearned,dividens and capital gain tax to pay, no payroll tax as I am not what the government calls a working person. The people that lead you to believe the wealthiest or wealthy people pay no tax is deliberately telling lies and are full of s(%^.
mmissinglink
Active Member
BoliverT. said:mmissinglink said:BoliverT. said:
Don't you mean your crystal ball, not your charts?
.
This was only to point out those who predict what will happen in the future rarely ever get it right, once in a while someone may stumble across one that is right, hell I could say it will snow tomorrow and if I say that long enough someday it will happen not anything to place a bet on.
If anyone can predict what's gonna happen in the future they should be multi-millionaires in a short period of time, I have been buying stock funds for years and if I could tell what tomorrow was going to bring my portfolio would be huge, I would be in the same tax bracket of Bill Gates. So what I wrote was not meant to be a serious response, I assume one would call it making fun of those who claim they can see the future.. Sorry I will add a disclaimer on the next post I make in gesture.
It was clear to me that you were just joking and that's why I clearly joked back.
.
The USD is predicted to get stronger.
http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/us-dollar-forecast/
*Stronger US employment figures (Yes I know many analysts say the figures are BS)
*The EU, Greece etc.
*Growth slow down in China and the effect on mining businesses, especially Iron-ore, coal.
*Cheap oil.
*Countries devaluing their currencies.
http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/us-dollar-forecast/
*Stronger US employment figures (Yes I know many analysts say the figures are BS)
*The EU, Greece etc.
*Growth slow down in China and the effect on mining businesses, especially Iron-ore, coal.
*Cheap oil.
*Countries devaluing their currencies.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
This is more for buyers with US dollars.
Even if $13 would occur, in my euro's I'd still have to pay more per ounce than at my previous purchase when price was $15
The futures hedge trend so far:
03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3
10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
... points to $14 rather than $13.
My euro's are historically weak, they say buy weak so I keep them for a better time.
Even if $13 would occur, in my euro's I'd still have to pay more per ounce than at my previous purchase when price was $15
The futures hedge trend so far:
03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3
10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
... points to $14 rather than $13.
My euro's are historically weak, they say buy weak so I keep them for a better time.
goldfinger
New Member
I'm just wondering, and I know that I am pretty far off on this, but do you think we'll ever see silver go down to $5/oz like 15 years ago?
ProspectorMidWest
New Member
Do people sell at lows like that? Time to buy! It would have to rest at out of ground cost right? Or it could dip but that would be even better! I feel bad. Total bear right now but I want in! Lol
He also like tequila!
