$13 silver might be possible

But in 2016 they want to "revise" interest rate policy - in the US. So, that might be the year when gold and silver start kickin' again.
 
If you're planning to add more coins to your collection, a price smackdown is what you're looking for. ;)

rara200284 said:
I should just stop checking the price of Gold and Silver everyday and check it out in 5 years.
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Court Jester said:
SilverPete said:
Pirocco said:
The latest futures market total-position-based price target,
- assuming a 10000 contracts (5000 ounces each) bottom
- assuming a 70 Moz supply/demand change for every price dollar change
gives a next bottom of $13.7.
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That'd be $18 to $19 AUD so not as good as last year's low when denominated in Aussie dollars.
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correct as the world does not revolve around the US of A, despite what americans think.
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Yep, that's also something to take into account.
It's for a reason that there is a correlation between us dollar/euro/etc and commodities.
One should buy when his currency sits high relative to others.
But it's this specific demand origin that then drives the price, denominated in that currency, up.
It's an interaction, much like everything on a market / in an economy.
My price target method should therefore also include a specific currency factor.
The question though is, what is the weight of the currency side of a silver price change?
Usually, big currencies don't fluctuate dozens of percents easily. Since silver and quite some other commodities prices are typically driven higher / lower alot more, their individual market elements still "rule".
My currency perspective is euro. Euro sits on a long term low. Bad moment to sell euro's / swap for something else. That's a second reason why I kept (no swap to silver yet) mine since over 3 months. But the individual market elements "ruling" reason, is my main reason.
I did bad in the past. Have to do alot times better to correct it in any degree worth mentioning. If I see reason to buy another load coins at todays price, I will, but for the moment, there is reason to wait. If it ends up as a bad decision, ohwell, the price will be higher then, and my silver to fiat ratio sits high enough to make it a small opportunity miss. If I had been saving fiat for a decade, it would have mattered.
 
leon1998 said:
Price action of miners stock indicates much lower spot is ahead.

First target: Au 1,170usd Ag 15usd

:P
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How does that work though? Does the market know something we don't?
 
Pirocco said:
The latest futures market total-position-based price target,
- assuming a 10000 contracts (5000 ounces each) bottom
- assuming a 70 Moz supply/demand change for every price dollar change
gives a next bottom of $13.7.

10/01/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17
03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29
27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18
20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54
13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37
06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54
30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20
23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01
16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $16
09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31
02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13
25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69
18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48
04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus)
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A new snapshot:
17/02/2015 47721 $16.82 > $14.13

About same price, their hedge dropped with 5736 contracts of 5000 ounces (28.68 Moz), equivalent to 2.69 price dollars, giving with a 10000 bottom hedge, a new (now higher) price bottom target of $16.82 - $2.69 = $14.13
The longer a high hedge exists, the more is bought in the underlying cash market.
IShares Silver Trust showed this:
2015/02/18 324,299,395.10
They bought this between 14 and 18 february, likely 17-18 (I check daily but sometimes I skip due to other things in life eheh!).
So this purchase was very likely part of that +28.68 Moz in the cash market.
 
I've called, about 30 months ago, USD $14 silver as the low for this bear market...we came close to that last year and I'm still calling $14 silver (give or take a few cents) before we see anything resembling a return to a long term mean which would precede a true bull market.




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SilverPete said:
I think gold has more room to fall so silver may hold up better if gold falls towards $1,000. Not based on anything in particular though.




___________________
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Well, all my gold(there wasn't much) went when gold hit A$1600+/oz recently(needed the $$ but was a good time after getting in for under A$1,400/oz incl. premiums).
I most likely won't be buying until under US$1,000 hopefully the aussie is doing ok, otherwise the $$ is better on the mortgage(usually is). SO, unless a very appealing gold price comes around in the next couple years it'll have to be the shiny grey stuff till the mortgage is gone and I can get back into the yellow stuff.
 
mmissinglink said:
I've called, about 30 months ago, USD $14 silver as the low for this bear market...we came close to that last year and I'm still calling $14 silver (give or take a few cents) before we see anything resembling a return to a long term mean which would precede a true bull market.
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Back in late November it *very* briefly spiked down to $14.20, where a boatload of contracts changed hands..

Was over so quickly that it was probably pretty much impossible for a human to grab physical at that level. My best at that moment was $14.77 -- I recall somebody here snagged some around $14.50.


That $14.20 does not qualify as "give or take a few cents"??

It's less than a 1.5% difference to your $14..
 
I caught that drop @14.7 with an online order to Provident. :P

And they were still running the Thanksgiving special I remember.
 
I am waiting for -$1 so they will pay me to buy silver. They do that for cash in Europe so why not silver it's only a basic commodity used for electronics. I think -$1 is perfectly acceptable.......They will run the paper markets up and down and clean you out on both trips. Ignore the hype and buy when you think it's cheap. Almost certainly it will be the wrong time - it almost always is. If you are a trader good luck on the momentum buying, if you are an value investor buy and forget about it. Like all prophecy these price guesses are worth squat.
 
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