I don't completely follow Elliott's work, but I think you'll find it is a minor wave within a larger wave ( just to add some complexity )
Silversale are you suggesting the silver bubble is over? or this is just a short term analysis of the market's direction?
I think waves dont even play a picture in this, i think its just the timing of the silver & that silver is still industrially related, so if the economy tanks , its going down too. I wished it was the hyperinflation scenario cause its much easier to handle, buy silver store it and go out for a beer, no need to watch the charts and read the news to see WTF is going to happen next
Silver as investment is the worst kept secret in the world, so Im curious to hear an alternative to the hype supporting it. I appreciate that if the money system fails this means the investment as a monetary metal is unique, but I also realise puppetmasters control the markets and have a horrible feeling Im the redskin trading my valuables for glass beads. I don't know anything about investing, and so far ignorance has been an expensive lesson, so I was hoping Silversale would share his opinion on the future of silver and gold. Particularly silver Everyone ive spoken to in mining see silver as pretty worthless. Average people who know mining. Is that because theyre used to low prices or because its very common?
Roman, I'm pretty sure you are aware there will be some tough years ahead. Silver should come back to it's multi year trendline. Low 20's is basically a given in my view. Nobody on this forum is talking about it, but a major deflation scenario is extremely likely near term. This should see the bulk of asset classes hammered down, at least to begin with. No investment decisions should be based on these thoughts.
Also silversale, My research into the Jesuits over the past few years (who I believe to be the puppetmasters of world politics, if not finance) has led me to believe theyre engineering a shortage of a particular commodity which will become apparent in the next couple of years. Can i pick your brains on how to make money from what i've discerned? Thatguy thanks for the link, Ive been looking at the graph for 10 minutes and have absolutely no idea what your point is. Can you elaborate?
Here's how I interpret the chart movements: Realizing that the chart itself is mostly unpredictable, but being confident that the fundamentals in modern economics guarantee that silver and gold will eventually be the best place to have your wealth sitting, you can conclude that the preferred method of acquiring the silver you wish to have is to buy at the dips. Buying at the dips vs just buying randomly maximizes the quantity of silver you can acquire for your cash. Naturally, you can't purchase all the silver you will ever own on the lowest dip if you plan on continuing to put your excess income into silver in the future. So the way I plan to do it is to take excess income and save it for buying silver on the current dips. This can be tricky because you want to get the most silver for your cash, and the general uptrend is bullish, you obviously can't wait too long to purchase. If silver is entering a period of correction though, it may be best to wait to purchase. You also have to weigh in things like bulk savings into your calculations. Many dealers will offer you a significant discount for bulk purchases. But if silver has an imminent rise, you may be better off buying what you can afford even at the higher rate because the spot increase may be more than what you'd save buying bulk. This happened to me just this last week when I bought the 10 silver dragons from Bullion Bourse. I had enough cash to buy 6 coins during the previous week when silver was $30. But I wanted to wait for my next paycheck so I could buy 10 at a discount. The day before my paycheck cleared, silver jumped to $32 which means that's 60 oz of silver I have to pay $2 more for = $120. The savings I got buying 10 at a time vs individually was much less, so I should have just purchased the six when I could and the remaining four after the paycheck cleared. As a long term investor, its common to say that it doesn't matter if you hit the dips or not because you're keeping the silver long term. Yes this is true that you'll come out ahead, but if you buy on the dips you get more silver now than if you had bought on the peaks. So I still try to act like a speculator so I can get the best deal I can. I also try to keep in mind how much cash I need for cost of living and expenses, and never buy silver if I think I'll need to sell any of it to get that cash back out soon. Surprise corrections can happen pretty much anytime, and nothing sucks worse than putting cash into metal, only to find that you are short on cash and need to sell at a time when spot is lower than when you bought. So, to sum up, I guess its two things: Buy on the current dips, and only spend what you can afford to do without for at least a year.
That's a rare thing though xag, to buy at any given point and not have the price be permanently above that in 12 months time. I see an example in early 2009 where it took 18 months to permanently recover. For the vast majority of instances (especially if you're paying any attention at all) within 12 months time the spot price has permanently surpassed what it was before.
Perso, I can't hardly see Silver below US$25, anytime... Of course, I could be underminding the Power to Be & their crafty cronies, but even if They did managed to do that... you wouldn't be able to buy it at that price, as no-one would be selling 1 It is one thing to 'dictate' a price, it's another to make any sense of it all.
Wow, had to go back to february 2011 to find someone else mention deflation, lol. Baron, you are going to get wiped out in this deflation, it is not a 2-3 month ordeal as you seem to think it might be. But you'll soon find that out for yourself
I love how we seem to think we have all the answers, we all might be wiped out, then again we might not.
Would you mind elaborating on what sort of deflation you foresee ? Are you talking about deflation as per the 1930s, where the price of everything falls, including commodities, food, services, assets etc ? Or asset deflation where prices of assets such as property fall, but not necessarily food etc ? And it what currency are you predicting the deflation to occur ? US dollars, aussie dollars or all currencies ?
Personally I like hearing the both sides of the story, too many bulls worry me. Thanks for the posts silversale, and everyone else. Good healthy discussion.
A deflationary enviroment makes the debts of governments around the world larger (a dollar worth more thus a dollar debt is a bigger debt). For me, this guarentees that either we will go down the inflationary path, or there will be HUGE defaults and people will realise the true value of paper. In both latter cases I don't want to be holding currency and silver will do well. The debt situations really tip the balance for me.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-pl...treasurys-next-6-months-35-more-previous-year Who is going to buy these bonds...?
Theres been hyperinflation many times in history. What ive found interesting is discovering that every person Ive asked around the world - Have you heard the story of the German needing to use a wheelbarrow to cart his money to buy a loaf of bread? So far everyone has. Exactly the same story about a little quirk of history to "educate" us about inflation. Its purpose makes me curious now that we see it on the horizon
