Where to...

Discussion in 'Silver' started by SilverSale, Nov 1, 2011.

  1. Zedsdeadbaby

    Zedsdeadbaby New Member

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    Whether it be inflation or deflation, who knows, but keep accumulating PM's...but do it well within your means. I agree with the deflationary scenario but in regards to physical PM's in might only work in theory. This is where paper & physical prices might be separated as who is going to give up their PM's at rock bottom prices? Very few, perhaps only the desperate and those forced into a corner. Perhaps also a lot of "Out of Stock" and "unavailable" signage at the dealers as well. Something that I had first hand experience with recently.

    Being an Aussie, a general rule of thumb that I can relate to is, many of us don't bat an eye going to the pub every week for that carton of beer. If you can do that then as a minimum try getting into the habit of, without batting an eye, stacking 1oz of silver per week (or 2oz every 2nd, or 4-5oz every month). Stack more on dips or when you feel appropriate.

    3 important rules: 1. Treat PM's with the same respect that you would any other investment decision. 2. Never stack more than you can afford, and 3. Lose the emotional baggage when stacking...just because you bought, don't expect the price to automatically rise!
     
  2. domdolittle

    domdolittle Active Member Silver Stacker

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  3. RetardedMonkey

    RetardedMonkey Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks like we're still going up...
     
  4. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Yup, Silver/AUD is attempting to break out of the $30-$33 range this morning. I'm hoping it succeeds :)
     
  5. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    There is NO easy way or single asset that you can invest in. Its all about what you feel comfortable with and the level of depth you want to take to understand or try to understand whats going on. This is my take

    1. If your a buy and hold metals, your day will probably be 2 years from now maybe 3 or so. In the next few months to 1 year expect to get some eye watering results on your metals.

    2. If you want a shorter term trade, its probably the USD. USD right now is dirt cheap, like silver was when it was 20+ bucks. Why do i reckon this is the case, cause all debt (well biggest) and commodities are priced in USD. If deflation occurs, which i think will be the case then people will be in search of USD as they sell their gold, oil etc. This is why USD shot up through GFC. Its because debt is usually called back in as USD. This means that in a de-leveraging event, USD demand will go up as people pay back debts. Once the world feels the pain stimulas will start again and gold and silver will be back up, hence first point

    3. If you want to try to fit the wave as best you can, then get your money into a trading account , try to understand the whole shamozzle and trade accordingly. When deleveraging happens, apply the proper shorts. When the rally happens after stimulas apply the proper longs

    Im basically basing my actions on the high level points above, could be wrong but need to choose a camp and stick with it or adjust accordingly, at the moment the news points to the above.
     
  6. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    Yes this is how I see it panning out, but the 2+ mo wait on decent amount of Ag when price is down is what worries me... a lot can happen in 2mo
     
  7. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    Silver will most definitely NOT do well in deflationary event, think about it, if alot of the silver bought on the comex is on margin (5-25% whatever it is) and a deflationary event happens what do you think people will do with their silver holdings ? They will sell, to get USD's to payback whatever debts they have. What you saw happen when silver had its fall from grace from 48 a few months back down to 26 will occur again from whatever point silver is at if there is a deflationary event.

    Yes and if there are huge defaults the value of paper will be very very HIGH ! Everyone will want it, just like they did in 08.
     
  8. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    Dont get what you mean by 2+ mo wait ? You mean 2+ month wait on getting Ag you bought ? If this is what you mean , then yeh, i had a think about this too and i kind of justified it by saying, if all of a sudden people on youtube were saying BMW's were a great investment or green skivvies were a great investment , the BMW dealer or your local target would run out of green skivvies. There would be lines of people waiting to get it. Doesn't mean there are no more green skivvies or BMW left it just means that the demand for the good in terms of processing cant be met, so turning the wool into the green skivvies or the metal into a car is just to slow, doesn't mean there is no more wool left, or steele !

    I only came to this conclusion in hindsight (after the drop) cause if there was a REAL demand and we REALLY ran out of it prices would NEVER ever fall from 48 to 26. If we really started to run out of the shiny stuff prices would keep going up indefinitely.
     
  9. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    I'm more thinking of a global currency collapse and a rush to hard assets, whatever that be. It's all nice spot being $10 but if no one will sell you any Ag and paper Ag is about as dangerous as throwing the $$ in the bin... well the train just left without you on board. That is why I have a core stack and backup ammo for deflation, though if things get real wild I expect to order the Ag (in the deflationary period) but never receive it :( , but it's a risk I am willing to take as I believe my core stack is "enough"
     
  10. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    Silver/AUD still hugging the resistance circa $33.00.

    The m/m Australian retail sales figure being released in about 20 minutes' time by ABS will most likely impact whether this goes down or up from here.
     
  11. gelxi

    gelxi New Member

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    A solid investment strategy. Any solid investment strategy always involves backup funds to fight Murphy's Law.
     
  12. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    I agree to with a core stack, i took abit of a haircut of my stack but everyone needs a core stack
     
  13. RetardedMonkey

    RetardedMonkey Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't really have a 'core stack' - I just monitor what I buy and sell closely
     
  14. Ikikyabut

    Ikikyabut New Member

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    In Australia I think one of the biggest things is the price of the AUD and the hedge that PMs can or cannot provide. If the AUD was to slide out the backdoor in relation to the USD to say the 60-70c range then alot of stackers would be very happy. I have no idea how to trade currency nor do i want to but is this something everyone takes into consideration?? And what is the chances of the AUD falling back into this range??
     
  15. grinners

    grinners Active Member Silver Stacker

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    You have misunderstood what I was saying. I was referring to currency default. IE: The euro fails and thus the USD collapses too.

    A) Deflation
    B) Inflation
    C) Currency collapse (mass defaults)

    In scenario A, I agree that silver gets slaughtered. In B and C, quite the opposite.
     
  16. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    Ok, Yeh Agree with A & B and the outcome of PM's for those as you stated, What kind of event do you mean in (C), as in Currency collapse, people , mums dads you and me no longer believing in any kind of currency .. is this what you mean ? Cause that is a possible event but still very very unlikely in the near future. As much as we all say we dont believe in fiat paper, we use it everyday to buy our foods, fuel and our PM's. As sh*t as the USD is right now there will be war before they stop that being the reserve currency let alone people completely not believing in it. Dont mind A & B happening but if C happens even PM's wont save you ... :)
     
  17. Recon

    Recon New Member

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    That's exactly what I was thinking too.
    This is the biggest factor that is missing in all the comparisons to the Great Depression and falling commodity prices. For everything to fall all at once, that's essentially the USD skyrocketing. How can this happen with a $15 trillion dollar government debt? How does the FED have any choice at all besides continual inflation?

    As for silver crashing, I guarantee that if spot dropped down below 20 nobody (with a brain) would sell physical silver at all. It would purely be the ETF market. Eventually physical's gotta get its own spot! WTF is this with phoney silver being traded in the open market as if it were legal, and then physical being expected to trade for the same? Ridiculous.
     
  18. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    A) Will lead to B) which will lead to C) IMHO

    to take advantage of A) with PMs you will need to be Johnny on the spot with the ammo and likely hood of missing due to bad timing is drastic. If you aim for B) you need to be sure you can live through A). I hope B) will set me up for C), cause it will be wild
     
  19. RomanControl

    RomanControl New Member

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    I disagree

    You can have deflation and inflation concurrently.

    I think thats the lesson of history. The baker who sold his bread in Germany's hyperinflation had fewer customers so would accept less money for his bread

    but at the same time he's charging more in paper terms per loaf as people's faith in paper money is eroding.

    Also

    I think you guys are looking at this as financial collapse only.

    Its an engineered catastrophe as far as im concerned. (And i know by who and why , if anyone's interested.)

    Alot of other drastic changes are going to be taking place soon, as far as I can figure.

    civil disobedience if not wars, food shortage etc.

    Rather than theorising ,Zimbabwe's recent history gives us a decent practical model of how it will most likely pan out . As they had all these factors and the takeover was

    engineered by the exact same folks using the same manual
     
  20. pmstacker

    pmstacker New Member

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    EXACTLY ! Many ways to handle A) so if your primarily metals then keep that powder dry for the shiny. Many other ways to execute on set (A)

    No one *wants* to sell, just that PEOPLE *may* be forced to sell. You have 50K - 100K worth of silver, you dont wanna sell but you have a mortgage and cause of deflation the rates hit 10% maybe 12% when under your normal calculations you have left a buffer of a rise up to 9%, in this case your jacked, might not apply to you but there will be people in this situation. In addition you may have just got layed of (comes with deflation - jobs gone) what do you do. Sell your stack or go on a massive diet until (C) plays out ?! Its not a question of wanting to, its a question of having to sell. Maybe there are alot of small players out there who can afford to keep hold of their silver (if i can ill keep hold of my core stack) but we are minority , if the bigger players sell and force the price down and you need to eat your going to sell for the price the market is asking for ...
     

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