When investors see the capital gains in silver outpacing the gains in AUD carry trade , this will definitely happen. The cash rate cut today helped for sure.
haha.. The 2nd thought process of someone holding an investment depreciating in value. "If it goes lower.. i'll just buy more" Next, comes fear.
Great prediction. You post this thread as silver drops a dollar in a matter of minutes, but overnight it rebounds anyway....
Well the s&p 500 finished off worse then it started this morning, finished down, i had a short on it so im happy, almost at strike price and im sure given the contract expiration it will reach that value But in terms of silver i dont think that this week will be its day of judgement like i may have said before, i think the day of judgement will be feb - march. Im trading on the fact that this whole shamozzle will get sorted now but the amount of leverage and bad decisions will come back to bite everyone in the ass abit later, when things are supposed to look good again. Seems like gold and silver just created one nice looking parabola haha.
and will continue to trade up ....then down .... then up again..... 12 months from now it will be up. How it gets there is not predictable. If you say its going down you have a 50% chance of being right. Silver = Volatility = "A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a particular security or market index. Volatility can be measured by using the standard deviation or the variance between returns from the same security or market index; normally, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security."
Indeed. Silver drops a dollar in minutes. Look to the graphs. Try to make sence of the drop in terms of "past event trading patterns". But where does something like the Greek decision (COMPLETELY illogical and unexpected), fit into the past history of trading patterns? http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/us-greece-referendum-germany-idUSTRE7A010220111101 Charts are absolutely fantastic.......for most "normal" trading. But they surely aren't the end all be all when in unchartered territory. How many "chartists" (for want of a better term) predicted the great depression? I had this conversation with a friend recently who's made "squillions" commodity trading. He looks at gold as though its a commodity like all others. And he's convinced that gold has had its day. The problem is, gold is not just a commodity. Its "currency" (though difficult to measure) value can't be discounted. And we are currently in a global monetary shitfight (or GFC as some would like to elloquently label) that may result in something far bigger than the great depression of the early thirties. How does charting, based on past events, predict an event that may never have occurred in the past? Hence why we stack silver and gold despite news otherwise saying that "the US is out of trouble and will lead us all to prosperity if it wasn't for the Europeans dragging us all down" (or so the B/S theme coming out of the US media tries to have us believe). p.s however, I could be making a gross mistake of logic by equating silver to gold in terms of its potential "currency" value and throwing the two together as "precious metals". :|
You said it would continue to drop in your last prediction too, after we dropped from high 30's to high 20's. And you got that wrong too.
I think we can't keep deluding ourselves into thinking that the majority of people think america will save us all. There are 1000's of youtube videos of the average joe since the 2009 period that now know about it, you just have to see the number of views some of those videos have to know that it isnt just a small majority of the population that know the economy is completly jacked right now. I think we can even remeber that trader that went on BBC and literally said to everyone that the economy is stuffed and we are all heading for a depression .. his words "i dream of a recession" ON mainstream BBC ! Im sure millions saw that, i think the pioneers are the ones that started this talk in 09, The sovereign debt crisis is a new thing but the cause of it is VERY clear, not the outcome (sovereign debt) but the cause (over leverage). It happend in 08, it happens to mums and dads that spend to much on credit cards it happens when your daughter makes $20,000 worth of bills on your phone cause she didnt understand the data plan on it. It ends up in the debtor paying back the creditor with interest over a period of time, after a payment plan is made (if they cant afford the payment in one hit). In All examples of this case, no matter how small the example is (even the daughter example) it results in shortage of money to pay back debt, so in daughter case she might be grounded and get no pocket money for 5 years. This means her days of going out with friends using that pocket money is over for atleast 5 years, unless she gets a job or starts some internet company from her bed room and starts selling makeup or something. Drawing similarities from this and what is happening on a global scale , if you look at the crux of it its the same and its more then one country. So yeh, the event is new but the cause isnt and you can draw on that from previous experience to see what to do. I guess if your a super super long termer then it doesnt matter BUT more then likely chance there will be a drop first like 08 where all assets drop. its usually at this time that people make the BIG money, not on the way up, as they say elevator up, lift down....
Here we go... Did you actually read my predictions? When it was approx US$40 I said it would drop to low - mid 20's very shortly. Happened precisely as predicted - mid 20's within a week. Then I said it was half time and due for a minor 4th wave up. Now I believe that 4th wave up is complete. Now we are due for major drops again. I don't think I can make it any clearer for you.
@Silversale: I was trying to look at the chart from the Elliot Wave perspective. Yes we have retraced 38.2% from the minor 3rd wave down, but isn't it one of the rules of Elliot Wave analysis that "Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1"? I think in this situation I see Wave 4 overlapping the price territory of wave 1... do you see the same ?
