Trump's trade war with China

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by willrocks, Aug 23, 2019.

  1. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  2. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yes, there are many doubts regarding China's rise. It's the most isolated great power (geographically, politically etc.), there are major discrepancies regarding the income from one are to the other.

    But I still think China can become the greatest economic power in the world, especially if they know how to do it:

    - China has imported technology/knowledge, which can propel it much higher in terms of technology (this propagates into science, military technology as well, not just consumer products...), while at the same time the US has almost forgotten how to make shoes!
    - China could rise on the back of the petrodollar's demise (if they find a recipe against it: e.g. Chinese gold standard, stronger Yuan etc.)
    - China's export economy could shrink, but they could stimulate internal consumption more
    - more and more Chinese companies are investing in Europe and the USA: not it's the west that's working for them (producing products for Chinese companies)
    - should China dominate trade routes (also establishing their own infrastructure along these routes: ports, railways, airports), they will gain a lot from international trade (even from merely the transportation aspect)
    - China is teaming up with Russia and Germany has always wanted to have stronger ties with Russia: I see a triangle forming!
    - the EU is opening its arms to more trade with China (seems like the US might as well remain alone while China and the EU are getting closer)
    - China buys a lot of gold and their internal consumption is high enough as well
    - China has set foot in Africa (buying up land, stimulating agriculture)

    So, basically what I see it that China is trying to change itself in order to be able to "climb the ladder" and surpass the US globally. The way the Chinese economy is working is changing.

    Obviously they have to shift from the export economy to something else.

    If you watch carefully, the US is slowly slowly losing ground in global politics. When this happens, others will "fill the gap". China will only have to gain from this.

    It is a gradual process.

    The US did enjoy peace during the two World Wars, the Cold War and everything that came after. But currently the US is gradually getting isolated. They're losing sympathy fast and influence gradually.

    Some people have written the BRIC nations (I intentionally left South Africa out, as it's a far smaller regional power). I wouldn't write BRIC down. I think they're in a "slump", but they might rise again.

    Brazil, Russia, India and China will certainly gain from the redistribution of global influence spheres. They will grow regionally, but only China has the "tentacles" to become a contender to the US.

    I see the possibility. No, I don't think China's going to be able to "step" on the rest of the world. Too many rivals, regional enemies and limitations. They will have to make many compromises.
     
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  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    One detail about the Belt & Road Initiative: the Budapest-Belgrade railway connection. Hungary and Serbia are building a new railway line, but Macedonia is also adding a segment in order to connect with Greece's Piraeus port. I believe this is the actual rail link that China is developing with European partners in Europe.

    More info about the project:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest–Belgrade–Skopje–Athens_railway

    Some maps down below...

    Chinese merchandise to arrive in the Greek port of Piraeus (just outside Athens), 51% of the port was bought by China's COSCO
    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Piraeus)

    [​IMG]

    The complete project will look like this (as I know, China is providing Hungary with a huge credit in order to be able to build the high-speed railway):

    [​IMG]

    Here is another proposed route (should China connect a rail link with Istanbul):

    [​IMG]

    The route from Istanbul to Budapest through Belgrade is similar to the legendary 19th century "Orient Express" train's route.

    [​IMG]

    The most likely link will be the one through the port of Piraeus, which will be connected through Belgrade with Budapest. The Hungarian capital already connects well with Central & Western Europe (as it's situated somewhere in the core of Europe). By the war, the European headquarters of Bank of China is also in Budapest.

    Still, they might as well want to build a railway link with Istanbul as well (which will probably pass through Iran: China might also want to import petrol and liquid gas from Iran). And, if this happens, then why wouldn't Turkey want to connect with the rest of Europe? Through the already existing rail link that runs down to Greece?

    Just my thought after reading about the projects and listening to the news.
     
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  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The rise of the new Chinese empire will be inevitable, but it will be over more than a hundred years and possibly hundreds of years into the future. If you're interested, I will recommend watching the drama "Han Wu Da Di", a China epic drama series on Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty (157 BC) produced in 2005.

    It's important to understand how China was formed and how the empire survives till today while all others (roman, egyptian, ottoman, persian and many european empires) have all collapsed.

    Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty created modern China today when he conquered barbarian states in Southern and Western China (modern Guangzhou, Guangxi, Fujian, Sichuan provinces), Inner mongolia, Xinjiang and established the silk road. He is considered a great Chinese military leader.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2019
  5. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’ve been doing some reading on the Han period and came across an interesting article on the Belt and Road and Xi’s possible agenda.

    The author cites the voyages of Zheng He during the Ming dynasty, the function of which was basically to prove the strength of the Emperor to the Chinese people.

    In another YouTube episode I’ve watched the commentator stated that as long as things are going okay, Xi will have the fragile support of the people. But if he shows weakness, or a lack of vision, then it will so the seeds of change. Xi may well be sending a modern version of Admiral Zheng He on a journey to cement his power.

    https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/zhe...-behind-xi-jinpings-belt-and-road-initiative/
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It’s possible but not in the current system. The current system will end up in medium income trap. But it will change eventually. How long it takes, maybe 50-100 years in the future?

    This is the reason why I think Trump will quickly work out a partial deal with Xi within the next 6 months or so, all this talk about asking China to change is a bluff. The current system that China has is advantageous to the US in the long term.

    India has potential and is actually progressing slowly over the years, even if it’s much slower than China. I don’t know if they will eventually have a stronger economy than the China but they have much stronger demographics and has a consumer market that will continue to grow for decades to come. Of course, there are problems but nothing which cannot be resolved over time even if it takes another 20 years.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2019
  8. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I know it’s basically taboo to ask but which country has the highest average IQ of China and India? It doesn’t much matter when both countries were agrarian peasant nations but it certainly does if the country is being shifted en-masse towards a complex western technological model.

    Just looked it up - China avearage 105. India average 82. That will make a difference going into the future. Australia 98. Interesting.
     
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  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And this data was provided by...? ;)

    Yep, it is bluff and grandstanding on both sides, designed to give the domestic populations of both countries the impression that the leaders are tough, in control and have a vision of a secure future. Any concessions Trump makes will be about how he can best save face. Trump is more Oriental than your average Westerner in that regard. Western societies have tended to move on and scoff at the notion of saving face. It's kind of like an outdated Elizabethan code such as defending your honour, where honour was really just a licence that allowed you to get away with something that would not be tolerated from a less honourable person. It was easier for the son of the honourable Baron to rape the scullery maid and get away with it than for the son of the lowly butcher. And quite hilariously the honour of the scullery maid doesn't even enter the equation, she probably wasn't even afforded the notion of honour. Legal protection probably, honour unlikely.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2019
  10. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    after listening to an Indian from India put it, it is not going to make the difference he said, "NO Toilet" he mentioned many times, he visits China very often
    after a long convincing, I would have to take his word for it, they are not the same..not everyone is a Gandhi

    The green glass in India, I fear that the Pakistani could possibly nuke them.. there is a precedent of such explosion before on their land.. possible of this happening again
     
  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    Too many countries have too many nukes in the world!

    North Korea came as a shock, but now Erdogan is wining for nuclear weapons:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...urkey-cant-have-nuclear-weapons-idUSKCN1VP2QN

    In the (first) Cold War, pretty much everyone knew that the nuke arms race is dumb and it's a dead end street. We all lose in a nuke war. We all die.

    So, how come everyone "wants some"?

    Iran, Turkey... who's next?

    What is this, M&M's?

    What I see is that the multipolar world (in forming) is essentially becoming a fragmented planet with multiple "cold wars" and fragments between which there will be little or no "passage". Imagine a world like in some online PC game: team 1 vs team 2 vs team 3 vs team 4 vs team 5 vs team 6 vs team 7...

    "team 1 has declared war on team 2"
    "team 3 has declared war on team 5"

    "team 4 has allied with team 1 and declared war on team 2"

    "team 7 has declared war on team 4"

    "team 1 takes revenge and bombards team 7"

    "team 5 hasn't allied with anyone, just decided to take 'preemtive strikes' on team 1"

    "team 2 declares 'neutrality' and decides to leave the game"

    "teams 1/3/4/5/6/7 all invade parts of team 2... team 2's territory now becomes a new fighting ground for teams 1/3/4/5/6/7"

    ...no-one can leave the game unless they leave the planet :D

    Prepare your spaceships! (Oh, and bring lots of canned food!)
     
  13. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Because religious imperialism is so much larger now and these crackpots believe they'll win whether they live or die.
     
  14. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Finally you are connecting the dots together. Have you played the game RISK? If you played the game, you will know that the places to avoid is Eurasia because it can be attacked by many places and north and South America is the best place to be.

    Having a large empire with borders with many powerful neighbours stretches your resource thin in a multipolar world.

    Why did Trump pull out of Syria? Think about it. What happens if the common enemy the US pulls out of Syria? What happens when Turkey faces off Iran and Russia? Who will be the boss? Everyone has their own interests.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2019
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  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps it's because:
    - once the cold war was over and the US started losing strength... the medium regional powers started emerging with the greed of "finally" having the chance to become (at least) a regional "bully"
    - empires that once flipped over or decayed in time are recognizing that they're getting a second chance to regain (some of) their power/influence/fierceness (Russia, Turkey, Germany, Iran, China...)
    - some countries are in an obsessive rivalry/arms race against each other and this will (almost) never end (India vs Pakistan)
    - it's a business: arms race makes big bucks (for the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, Israel, the UK, Sweden, Italy...), so someone needs to stir the waters and... others need to stay quiet and not bring up peace, because they too need to make more money (Sweden, France, Italy)
    - everyone is picking sides again just like after WW I, WW II, Cold War?

    Gosh how safe the biggest warmongers are. They rarely or never get to see "real war" on their territories. At least not in their core territory (USA, UK...).

    It's madness and I'm worried. You should worry too.

    I hope Gerald Celente isn't right:
    "trade wars, currency wars, world war!"
    "when all else fails, they take you to war!"

    It's so dumb. What I'm finding hard to understand is how stupid the political class and journalists have become. They're dumb as dirt.
    Little children.

    At least the Cold War politicians were adults. Perhaps "political adulthood" ended somewhere around 1999-2000. Around when George W. stepped on the throne :p

    Dumbness, iresponsible childish rhetoric, violence, immorality, amorality, thirst for revenge, endless greed and thirst for power.

    The world isn't big enough for their tentacles.
     
  16. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    "What happens if (when) the common enemy the US pulls out of (northern) Syria - Syria invades attacking the Kurds (terrorists?)

    "What happens when Turkey faces off Russia and Iran" they don't - they become (are) allies.

    As we "speak" Russia,Iranian and Syrian Special Forces are training together for the first time in a trilateral exercise using missiles launches,airstrikes and drones on fortified targets :confused:

    You have Turkey to invade northern Syria o_O

    You have Russia,Iran and Syria east of the Euphrates :eek:

    Israel is more than worried as you might imagine already making big plans to defend itself with Nuclear Weapons because as you can see what choice does it really have,surrender no :mad:

    Israel is a tiny nation surrounded by it's enemies.

    99% of people don't realise this but what happens to Israel is the main game :D

    -

    The Book of Psalms Chapter 122 verse 6

    Pray for the peace of Jerusalem - may they prosper who love you :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2019
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  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The night is still young. The last 70 years is an anomaly. Once the Americans pulls out of Eurasia, Eurasia will return to its normal state for thousands of year - everyone fighting everyone.

    I did a look up on Russia, Persian and Turks. They are traditional arch enemies no less. The Ottomans, Russia and Persia are all empires sharing borders. The mission of empires is to expand.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Russo-Turkish_wars
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Persian_Wars
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman–Persian_Wars
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2019
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Has Asia had its reformation yet? Japan and Sth Korea may have, maybe even Taiwan.
     
  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Have you ever seen something like this happen elsewhere?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13598607

    If Asia goes into conflict, Japan can easily create a 3 million strong disciplined volunteer army while all other regional armies will be made up of mostly conscripts that will use all methods to avoid conscription, fleeing to Australia/USA, maiming themselves, etc. We have seen how conscript army fight in Yemen. They can have air superiority, the best arnaments in the world, and numerical supremacy and still lose.

    What if you have a disciplined, intelligent, highly educated, volunteer army with hi-tech equipments? Not an army of conscripts or school dropouts that have no where to go.
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2019
  20. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    "Eurasia will return to it's normal state for a thousand year" :confused: there is absolutely Zero chance of that happening with you realizing this sooner than later,much sooner :D

    Iran and Turkey are Muslim very Muslim and hate Israel o_O so that is two from three.

    Russia is after Israel's newly discovered resources surpassing previously found discovered resources :p

    Israel has huge gas supplies of 6.7 billion cubic feet of gas with the piplelines already being built sending Israel's gas to Europe and 1.4 billion barrels of oil in it's Pelagic licenses,The Bible refers to this as the "hook in the jaw" Ezekiel 38 v 4 :D

    As I said before 99.99% of people do not realize that what happens to Israel is the only game in town,unless you know this your pants are going to be pulled down :eek:

    Note - God warns Iran (Persia) with Russia (Magog) and a coalition of allies (including Turkey,Libya,Sudan) will go to war and will invade Israel :(

    In Ezekiel 38-39 The Bible warns this coming war between Iran and Israel will take place sometime after Israel has re-gathered into Her land as a nation which was fulfilled on May 14 1948 :)

    It is a minute to midnight :confused:

    -

    The Book of John Chapter 3 verse 16

    For God so loved the world that whosoever believes in Him will not perish but have everlasting life :)
     

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