Trump's trade war with China

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by willrocks, Aug 23, 2019.

  1. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Japan properties was too expensive at one time, it cost 3 generations to buy the flat
    that was 1 factor
     
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wow, more news on Thailand. My own experience with Thailand business is it is very easy to import stuff into Thailand, the economy is very open and pro-business. The Japanese are big into Thailand. The Toyota cars in Singapore are made in Thailand and they are as good as the Japan made ones.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/us-...es-looking-to-invest-in-thailand-vietnam.html
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cers-leaving-china-offer-hope-for-its-economy
     
  3. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The elephant in the room isn’t Trump but Xi needing Trump to win 2020.

    Xi can engineer an almighty worldwide recession with the world blaming Trump/USA 2021

    The world is ripe for Xi/China to grow in influence Europe, Asian and the Brics with Trump in the paralysed in chaos over his last term

    As for recession in China...... big whoop, every country have recessions, how many people died or rioted in the street in the last recession?

    Chineses factories aren’t closing they are taking orders from Asian, European and Australian companies negotiating to take up slack.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
  4. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I asked a customer from China about recession. He says China will never have a recession. I told him that we have recessions in Singapore every 8-10 years (1987, 1997, 2003, 2009) and when it comes, you can buy stuff cheap. He is bewildered because prices in China only goes up and never comes down.

    Recessions only happens in a market economy because interest rates and liquidity are raised high enough to cause a credit bubble burst. In a command economy, recession never happens because the tap is never turned off. The banks keep lending out money without any limit.

    They have no clue what a recession is because they never had one.

    If you thought Trump is tough to deal with. Wait till Michael Bloomberg decides to contest. The days of puppets are over.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
  6. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    China is not doing as well as everyone here seems to think. As long as the China gov keeps pumping money into the economy, they can keep going. Just like QE in the US?

    Anyone who believes that China has never had a recession probably believes that Xi only makes the reported less than $30K a year salary.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ow-slowed-by-stimulus-used-in-great-recession

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/chinas-central-bank-injects-record-amount-to-stimulate-economy.html

    https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-economy-not-so-big-after-all-46887

    https://www.scmp.com/comment/insigh...71/how-badly-chinas-economy-doing-look-behind
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The risk is that if the China credit bubble bursts, it will bring down the world economy as correctly pointed out.

    Some believe that China will harm itself to bring down Trump. This is possible in my opinion but will be the most stupid move because the next US president may just continue the trade war which most probably would be the case.

    In any case, does anyone think Trump doesn’t know this. He might in fact have intentionally made himself the bait. In just over a year he can return to his billionaire lifestyle having accomplished his goal.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interview with Steve Bannon from Oct 2018.

    Bannon goes over the key issues facing the US / West v China in depth. Quite interesting and worth and hour of our time to watch.

     
  10. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When you are on the ground asking people about their economy ... They are telling me it sucks big time... USA Just makes enemies to the rest of the world. Your welcomed well travelled Aussie
     
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  11. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Don’t know too much about America but quality of life in decreasing order earning a local non-expat median wage:

    Australia > Singapore/Taiwan > Malaysia > Hong Kong > China > India
     
  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    it say preference shares....often happen
     
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  14. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  15. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    With brexit in Europe and this trade war, companies are learning the value of diversified supply chains. Manufacturing is shifting from China to Thailand and other Asian states. Larger companies in Europe are moving from the UK to Germany and elsewhere. Global markets will be permanently better off once the dust settles to the loss of the West. We are witnessing the end of hegemonic empires and the return of sovereign states in regional alliances. China will not fare as badly as expected, they have already established the ground work in Africa and other emerging economies to survive.

    India will be a big winner from this, although they are embroiling themselves in unnecessary conflict with Pakistan by revoking Kashmiri independence.

    What this means for Australia is yet to be seen, but I don't see us removing ourselves from the Western sphere anytime soon.
     
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  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Omg that is too freaky
     
  18. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    CNBC article states:

    Key Points
    • China will win the Sino-U.S. trade war, said the president of Independent Strategy on Monday.
    • China will never trust the United States again, and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
    • Chinese tech firms have traditionally been reliant on American suppliers for semiconductors, modems and jet engines. But recent developments in the trade war have called this relationship into question.

    Should read:

    Key Points
    • China is a financial house of cards, said the president of Independent Strategy on Monday.
    • "China cannot be trusted to act as they say they will” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
    • Chinese tech firms have traditionally stolen IP frpm American suppliers for semiconductors, modems and jet engines. Thus Trump in the trade war have called the Chinese out on this.
     
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  19. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the solution is as simply remove all sanctions before talks can begin, else nothing change
     
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  20. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not 100% sure on point one but basically the points are valid. Having said that I think the articles point stands. China will move on.
    Trump talks about fairness and at the same time says what we say is the rule of law and if you disagree we will crush you. Doesn’t pass the pub test as we say in AUS.
     
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