Trump's trade war with China

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by willrocks, Aug 23, 2019.

  1. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Are you inferring that Trump is a socialist?
     
  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Only in the ways he supports the same unsustainable socialist programs as other socialists. Not that he would consider himself one.
    Every politician has a little socialist in them.
     
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  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Pure capitalism don’t work. HK is a good example of what happens when you have pure capitalism. People like to compare HK with Singapore but Singapore is a socialist country where housing and healthcare is partially subsidized so big difference.

    At the same time, Singapore is an extremely rightist society, more so than hk and Taiwan, and surprisingly even China.
     
  4. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You prepare for war': How one US firm tried escaping Trump's China tariffs

    REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun
    21 Aug 2019 07:35AM (Updated: 21 Aug 2019 10:00AM)
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    HONG KONG: When Larry Sloven heard last year that US tariffs threatened his China electronics business, he knew that setting up shop elsewhere would be a slog rather than an adventure.

    The 70-year-old had spent half his life building supply chains in southern China to produce goods for big-box US retailers. But he had never reshuffled one on short notice, with tariffs hanging over his head.


    "It is the hardest thing I've ever had to do in all my 30 years in the business," said Sloven, president of Capstone International HK, a division of Florida-based Capstone Companies.

    "You've got packaging, assembling, auditing, labour, overheads, components, logistics, transportation," he said. "I went from first gear to fourth gear very quickly."

    READ: Trump insists US recession not in the cards
    Sloven, a native of Long Island, New York, cut his teeth in Asia in the 1970s sourcing lighting products from Japan. He then moved to Taiwan and then mainland China, making and sourcing electrical products for AT&T and Duracell, before becoming a buying agent for sporting goods retailer Dick's.


    READ: Huawei founder details 'battle mode' reform plan to beat US crisis
    [/paste:font]
    But his instinct was that US-China ties were taking a turn for the worse.

    "You don't know what's coming next in China," he said.

    He set his sights on Thailand as the site of a possible second production base. Sourcing raw materials locally was difficult, but at least they carried no import duties. Setting up a business entity in Thailand was also cheap and fast, and some of the work could be subcontracted.

    A US trade official in Thailand introduced him to various local companies who could help.

    "I will be able to make products in Thailand," Sloven said at the end of last summer. But, he added, "it's not going to be easy."

    In September, US President Donald Trump gave him an even better reason to move.

    The total value of US tariffs on Chinese goods was expanded from US$50 billion to US$250 billion, putting Capstone's LED products in the crosshairs of 10 per cent levies.

    Smart furniture, if made in China, would take a hit.

    Soon after, a survey by Amcham China, which represents US businesses, showed that a third of its members were planning to shift the sourcing of components or assemble some goods outside of China.

    READ: Trump says China talks 'productive'; Beijing vows tariff retaliation
    Sloven's efforts in Thailand appeared to have paid off. After numerous meetings, he found a furniture factory and an assembler outside Bangkok that could help him.

    Both had international experience and were expanding to meet increasing demand from US firms. And while smart furniture was new to them, they were confident they could pull it off and were ready to invest. The companies cannot be named because of non-disclosure agreements.

    After a site visit in February, Sloven ordered components for his smart mirror to be shipped to Thailand. By mid-March, Capstone engineers were showing the factory how to put them together.

    "I'm not concerned," Sloven said in February. "I'm giving him the information step by step," he said, referring to his Thai partner.

    Even as Sloven grew more optimistic, the urgency to leave China seemed to abate as 2019 began.

    Trump and President Xi Jinping of China had declared a cautious truce at a Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires, and it seemed to be holding. Officials on both sides were suggesting a deal before a March deadline, and the threat of tariffs rising to 25 per cent seemed distant.

    But Sloven was sticking to his plan.

    "I don't think there's going to be a trade war, but that doesn't change things," he said at the time.

    MOVING SLOWLY

    The March deadline passed, but tariffs remained unchanged. That gave Sloven breathing room.

    He scheduled a series of pilot runs to test how well the Thai factory handled assembly. He also needed to prepare for audits of labour rights and environmental standards that US retailers require.

    He estimated that would take at least another six months.

    "I'm going to start moving on a small scale because they're not going to be able to just do it immediately," Sloven said. "As much as they say, 'Oh, I can do this right now' - I'm not taking that chance."

    READ: Apple CEO warns Trump about China tariffs, Samsung competition
    More investment in tooling and moulds was required, too, but the Thai companies agreed to bear the cost.

    Regardless of what happened with the trade war, Sloven felt covered.

    "You prepare for war," he said. "You're ready if you're attacked."

    RE-NEGOTIATING CHINA

    Sloven also had work to do in China.

    His suppliers in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Guangzhou were certain the trade conflict would blow over and were reluctant to negotiate deals that would send components and raw materials abroad for assembly.

    But Sloven kept pressing ahead with the Thailand plan, concerned about the toll the trade war was taking in China.

    In early April, Sloven invited Reuters to meet his trade lawyer, Sally Peng of Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg.

    Peng described how Chinese factory floors were emptying out as workers were laid off. Few owners had the expertise or resources to automate or find new export markets, so most were riding it out, hoping for a trade deal. They were "losing money every day", she said.

    "They believe that eventually it will all come back," Sloven said.

    "I think within five years, it will all be gone," Peng replied.

    INVESTOR CALL

    The same day Sloven met his lawyer, his bosses in Florida announced 2018 results that reflected the effects of the trade war. Net revenues came in at US$12.8 million, down from US$36.8 million in 2017. Net losses were US$1 million, a swing from a US$3.1 million profit.

    "Capstone faced challenges in 2018 unlike any in its history," chief financial officer Gerry McClinton said.

    READ: US President Trump does not want to do business with China's Huawei
    Meanwhile, development of the smart mirror was in full swing. The prototype was deemed a success at a Las Vegas electronics show in January, and a PR agency and a marketing company were hired to advertise the new product.

    Then Trump hiked tariffs to 25 per cent on May 10.

    For Sloven - and many others - the urgency level bounced back up. That month, a survey by AmCham China and AmCham Shanghai showed the number of firms that had moved production or were considering doing so leaped above 40 per cent.

    To speed things up, Sloven introduced the Thai assemblers to his Chinese suppliers.

    He wanted to set the rules of the game and then let them interact independently. Those meetings had to go well, or all could fall apart.

    In a stroke of luck, he discovered the two sides had something in common.

    "The Thai guy, his family was from China originally so he spoke a certain dialect. And the factory in China – my supplier - and him speak the same dialect," Sloven said. "What a home run!"

    After months of digging in its heels, the Chinese company finally relented and agreed to supply Sloven in Thailand.

    AUDITS, LOGISTICS

    With his supply of components and raw materials secured, the next big step was the audits.

    Thirty-five per cent of the product had to be made in Thailand for the product to be considered Thai, and thus exempt from American tariffs.

    READ: Why this US-China trade war is harder to resolve, a commentary
    A certificate from an independent auditor would prove that, but the auditing usually takes four to five weeks.

    "I know what I have to do, but getting the information is mind-boggling. These are supply chain issues that everyone in the world is going to have to face," Sloven said.

    Logistics was another concern for Sloven. Shipping to the United States from Thailand takes eigh to 10 days longer than it does from China.

    Despite the extra costs and time, Sloven thinks he will be able to make the product for the same price as in China without the tariffs.

    And by the middle of the summer of 2019, Sloven was confident that most of his challenges had been overcome and that the smart mirror would ship on schedule on Oct 1.

    But, he allowed, "there's always going to be hiccups".

    Source: Reuters
     
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  7. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Fascinating read thanks sgbuyer.
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This article reflects reality vs MSM spins. The Chinese (and many others also) believe that the trade war is only temporary because Trump will be replaced by a Democrat next year. But the fact is that businesses won’t be waiting to see whether trade war will be over. No CEO will want to bet on this, and neither can they answer to the board by doing nothing for one year so they will be busy looking for alternatives. Once they found an alternative, they will realise that it is not only cheaper but even better to make their stuff in Thailand and Vietnam. One of the rules of business is to never to allow your customer a chance to try out your competitor’s product because they will probably never return.
     
  9. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How long until China has a major foreign currency crisis? Between companies leaving and the CNY devaluation, it's not looking good for China.
     
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  10. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You guess is as good as mine. Early this year I thought that gold will go todamoon because the rmb will devalue and the rich will flee into gold. But I didn't expect it to happen so quickly because I thought that Xi will play along with Trump, pretend to give in, and go hardline only just before the 2020 Nov election so as to have maximum impact on Trump's re-election chances.

    It appears that the HK unrest which appeared suddenly changed the whole game. Or maybe the situation in China is worst than we think it is so Xi is changing strategy - he may want revert China back to communism? Reverse all of Deng's reforms so to speak.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2019
  11. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Markets already reacting.



    Trump tweeted:
    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164914960046133249
     
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  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  13. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    He does realise he's not a dictator doesn't he?

    are hereby ordered to immediately

    including bringing your companies HOME

    Also, I am ordering all carriers, including Fed Ex, Amazon, UPS and the Post Office, to SEARCH FOR & REFUSE all deliveries of Fentanyl from China (or anywhere else!).

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Still early, when the real shots are fired, be ready to BUY stocks.

    This will be the greatest buying opprotunity and to build some serious wealth until the next hegemony... China vs India later in the century
     
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  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yep that's the plan.
     
  16. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Remember JulieW, the US is a Republic not a democracy like Aust or the UK, thus the power structure is different. The President has a lot of power they can wield without Congressional approval, including forcing US companies out of China. Jimmy Carter first had such power to do this.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-has-power-to-force-u-s-companies-from-china


    Can't blame DJT for directing courier companies / US Post to search for fentanyl. 23t of the stuff coming out of China into Mexico and one can assume the US.

    https://www.breitbart.com/border/2019/08/25/25-tons-of-fentanyl-from-china-seized-in-mexico/
     
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  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  18. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    He cant do much really. The businesses arent owned by the us govt and they are in foreign lands. They arent and never were US businesses. He can make empty threats but that's about it. Or place sanctions and tariffs that hurt his own people.
    These are the reasons they all left to begin with. They are treated like an enemy by our job killing govt.
    Alinksys plan at work.
     
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  19. bubblebobble2

    bubblebobble2 Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Of course China isn’t the enemy. The enemy are corporations and the deep state, so China has become the boogeyman.

    Years of outsourcing and money printing has created a serious imbalance in the world economy that is threatening to blow up the Chinese economy and society.

    Just look at HK, the same problems affecting HK is affecting all major Chinese cities. HK is only the tip of the iceberg. Ridiculous real estate prices, x30-x50 annual wage. Do you know that in China a man can't have a family and a kid unless he can buy an apartment? So what happens is that his parents, his grandparents will take out their retirement funds, medical fund and pension. The entire 3 generation of family savings and pension is used - practically everything is thrown into the single apartment.

    So what happens if the real estate market collapses? I estimate that real estate prices in China are overvalued at least 300%-400%, so prices can drop 70-80%.

    There's a lot of propaganda on China, but not much on the predicament of the man in the street. Why do you think all the rich Chinese are trying to get out of China. Everyone knows how it will end, even if they don't talk about it. Even the daughter of Huawei's boss lives in Canada. Ironically, she is still safer in Vancouver under house arrest than in Beijing.

    The message I'm trying to convey is that tariff or no tariff, even if there's a time machine you can go back and let Clinton win, the party will be over within the next couple of years, there's no way to avoid this meltdown. The days of cheap imports will be over soon no matter what happens.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019

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