Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 07/31/12 Major expectations baked into these markets, both on the equity and commodity sides. European meetings on Thursday where major initiatives to support the Euro and the banking system are "expected" to be announced and now an "expected" (not hoped for) action by the Fed has been the structural support for these markets. As suggested last week, these expectations have scared "some" of the shorts, with silver up almost $2 from the low and gold adding a healthy $75. The action that will "need" to be announced, "must" be announced and be "credible". Or these markets will go down faster than (fill in your favorite joke).
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/01/12 Just a little talk that the Fed would wait until September took the edge off the metals yesterday. The real story will be the European meetings tomorrow. Play it like a weekend, I am desperately searching for a better analogy than Twiggy. Any help would be welcome.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/02/12 or 02/08/12 One down and one to go. The Fed decides to do nothing BUT says it will if necessary. As mentioned, no action, watch out below. Although the Fed said they would help if necessary. by doing nothing the markets were disappointed and silver fell $1. Today it's the Europeans turn. Stay tuned. Range could be another $1 or so in silver and $25 in gold. Dangerous game. Its not like Badminton, where, by losing you play an easier opponent.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/03/12 or 03/08/12 Missed the range yesterday by .13 on silver and $3 on gold. Yawn . Euro pros said nothing new accept they would accelerate bond purchases. Market disappointed. Weekend here and unemployment numbers due out at 8:30. If the number of jobs created is north of 140,000 expect further weakness early on in the metals. A number under 100,000 will give the market hope of further stimulus and create a short term bounce. Best strategy, flatten out ahead of numbers and then flatten out at noon and call it a day. The inaction of both the Fed and the Euro players suggests that September is going to be an exciting month. Europe is closed for August, Congress has gone on holiday (not as if they ever work) and the market will now accumulate the economic data over the next few weeks. The worse the data the more aggressive action to be expected when our global "leaders" return. If you want to surprise a market, August is the window. Have a pleasant weekend and enjoy the Olympics. Check out www.bulliontracking.com if you're interested in tracking your precious metals holdings accurately.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/06/12 Markets are drifting, susceptible to any news flash. Everyone I know in Europe is on holiday. In thin markets like these ranges become more important. Sell gold at $1,628 buy gold at $1,588. A break either way is good for a quick $30. September is shaping up for an explosive month. If I had to guess today, the I would guess higher. If I am right any August weakness should be accumulated.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/07/12 Very little to add from yesterday. Drifting markets with a slightly higher bias due to a weaker dollar and stronger equity markets. Assuming no surprises from the Middle East and a little profit taking in the Euro bounce, markets may settle slightly lower today. Ranges still the key here.
Morning Outlook from the Tradedesk 08/10/12 A very quiet week for the metals comes to an end. Gold traded within a $20 dollar range and silver $1. Not very exciting. Investors are waiting on the sidelines for the next big move ($30+ gold). The triangle/pennant/congestion/etc. will resolve with possibly brutal force. But, what will be the catalyst? We've seen summer doldrums before but this is ridiculous. Someone will get hurt. Fortunately, very few are swimming in these waters at the moment. My outlook for September bringing increased volatility, most likely towards the upside, remains intact. I attended the World Money Fair in Philadelphia this week. All the major world mints and wholesalers were present. All had the same thing to say; it's slow, but there has been signs of a pick up, especially for silver, since Aug.1. In product related news, the Royal Canadian Mint will release the 5th coin in the Canadian Wildlife Series in mid-September. The Antelope, a speedy land animal which roams central and western Canada's plains, will grace the 1 oz .9999 pure silver coin. Several mints are also working on a new anti-counterfeiting technology for their bars and coins. It seems counterfeiting in the Far East (mostly China) of certain products has become an issue. The technology consists of a hologram embedded in the bar or coin designed by the same company that created the anti-counterfeit technology for modern day passports. My guess is the Chinese will figure it out fairly quickly. My proposed solution; always buy from a reputable dealer. Ebay is not recommended.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/13/12 Metals again remain in tight range with small upward bias. Focus on dollar, equities and oil for direction. Another surge in the equity markets this week may take gold through $1,630 resistance. Just as likely that profit taking sets into these markets and brings the metals down to the lower end of their recent range. If there is no news do I have your permission to say "ditto" or is it still exciting to open this blurb in anticipation of some profound statement?
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/14/12 Equity and Euro profit taking yesterday put a damper on metals and they worked their way lower yesterday. I would probably buy the open with some expectation of moderately stronger equities today. Retail sales numbers will be the catalyst. Really bad numbers may be price supportive as the markets will again "expect" the Fed to add stimulus in September. Phone volume doubled yesterday. May have been an anomaly, but something to watch.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/15/12 or 15/08/12 Yesterdays retail sales much stronger than expected, taking the pressure off the Fed to add more liquidity (AKA lower metals). Soros again buying gold. I am still range minded and we are closer to the bottom than the top. On Monday, I wrote a piece for another website that stated I put no relevance in the theory that the silver market was manipulated. The lines lit up. I was quite amazed at the language used in our now politically correct world. Gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling from the golden days on a desk. Anyway, hot/cold continues. Retail sales derail, Empire State puts 'things' (Fed 'things') back on track. And, with consumer prices not budging, there's your best excuse to "please give us some mo' Sir!" Starring Bernanke as the doler-out of the monetary porridge and some hungry hedge fund dudes who are dressed in anything BUT tatters...clamoring for the hot stuff.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/16/12 Traders bought the lower end of the range yesterday. Today the markets are flat, but cant help feeling something is afoot. ADP data and building stats due today, which again will provide a catalyst. Bad news, they expect Fed easing, good for metals. Yesterday good news, pundits argue for no need for Fed easing and after a brief sell-off (that's whats expected right) and a stronger dollar (also negative, right?) gold closes up. I have been watching the C$, which has gained some 4% in the last two weeks . forex markets are smarter than metals markets. A resource currency making a major push. Hmmm wouldn't play this market from the short side.
Late afternoon post from the Trade Desk 08/17/12 I appologize for the late posting. Yesterday... C$ up another 30 pts. Positive for metals US$ rates up 40 pts on ten year three month high should be negative Violence in S. Africa s/b positive Euro up 80 pts s/b positive Housing starts negative s/b be bad, but good because Fed will now ease therefore positive 4 positives against 1 negative = $12 bucks higher If I do this everyday I should make a lot of money. Reminds me story from long ago. I received an unexpected visit one day from a chap that had an impressive business card, including an MBA designation. He wanted to show me his new theory on making money in the metals markets. He showed me a three year chart on gold and began to underline the lows and the highs for the market. He said if you bought the lows and sold the highs you would make money on a consistent basis. He then ended his presentation. I waited, but after a minute or two, I realized he was finished. I stated that his theory was interesting but when do you know when the low is put in and when the high is hit. He looked at me and said, " that's the only thing I haven't figured out yet." Today: I'll let you know what to do after the market closes. Lots of cross currents. Buy dips and go flat. We will continue to see increased interest in RH and Platinum with the violence in S. Africa. 34 dead after police open fire on strikers. Terrible news. On a brighter note, it's Friday. If you already own precious metals, check out www.bulliontracking.com. Tracking application designed by industry professional. Free 1-month trial available. Have a nice weekend.
Morning Outlook fom the Trade Desk 08/20/12 Markets virtually unchanged. Jackson Hole coming up next week. Last chance in my opinion for Fed to say or do anything meaningful before the election. Range seems to have tightened to $1,600-$1,622.0. silver $27.85- $28.75. Trading the range has more or less paid off so far in August. Need "fresh" news to change my range theory. But be aware. Labour day beckons. Pt group metals worth watching, strikes & violence in South Africa are having their affects.
Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/21/12 The arm-wrestling match between the profit-seekers and the guardians of the monetary candy appears to be tilting in favor of the former this morning. Rumors, hints, innuendo, putative radio reports, alleged magazine stories, denial, confirmation -what have you. It all adds up to how badly the spec crowd wants (NEEDS) fresh injections to keep the ball rolling. Whether this is 'lift-off" two or so weeks before it was thought to be able to take place, we shall see. For the time being the shorts are also having their arms (and some other extremities) squeezed harder than hard. Targets: $1,710 gold, $30+ silver, and ? platinum (depends on Lonmin stories and how many of said shorts have to eat their own positions and reverse course) and palladium $650. Palladium wins the race as of this moment (2.3% gain). Good day for the Dow? Not just yet, but you never know. Kleenexes currently accepted in the US dollar bull pen.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/22/12 Nice move yesterday as metals have no issue taking out first resistance level. Silver is up some 10% in the past month. Euro zone optimism caused dollar selling. Not logical to me. The Europeans will have to begin to inject massive liquidity which should be dollar positive. As a trader I would play today with expectation of softness, but expect resistance levels, which are now support levels to hold. Is this a real move, or traders taking advantage of a very thin market. Big money will be returning from holidays soon. Conviction will then be confirmed OR NOT.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/23/12 Yesterday gold was able to soften to the previous resistance (now support) of $1,632 before the Fed minutes blew the market higher. The FOMC minutes showed a willingness to do more if the economy continued to slow. Duh, they have been saying that for three months. I guess when the words are actually committed to writing they mean more. Duh. As one of our contributors mentioned yesterday, the Fed only has to say they might and the market will take care of what they want to accomplish, without them ever doing anything. The markets are now in $1,630-$1,670 range and silver $29-$31.20. I would have more conviction if this move occurred after Labour Day. these markets are very thin and exaggerated.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/24/12 Markets taking a pause. I am leaning towards an overbought position, expecting some weakness. Gold should hold $1,650 level and silver may see $29.80, but aggressive selling before the weekend is probably not in the cards. Unemployment numbers and any news from Europe will be catalyst. I want to be bearish but time has taught me not to play in thin markets. Have a pleasant weekend.
