Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/27/12 Forex and metals markets level with Friday's close. Traders watching for any new commentary this week coming out of Jackson Hole. Oil should be supportive as hurricane shuts down Gulf oil production for the week. Maybe range $1,663-$1,678 today. Just a guess. Thin, thin markets. Did what all good traders do when unsure. Flipped a coin.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/28/12 Markets took the whole day to fill the range yesterday. Difficult to be short ahead of Jackson Hole on Thursday. These levels I would be long, looking at bottom of range with anticipation of low $1,670's today.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 08/30/12 There wasn't much to report yesterday.. Markets should hold tight range today with everyone expecting something different from the Fed tomorrow. Germany asks China for help with European situation. When you ask a Country, that is notorious for civil rights abuses (remember this is Germany asking), that blatantly ignores International copy right and patent law and is completely centric in their world view, Europe must be in a bigger mess than disclosed. This will all translate into considerable volatility in the weeks ahead.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/04/12 The markets certainly impressed last week. Silver hit my target of $32 which I suggested about three weeks ago and gold is flrting with $1,700. As a trader I am out and will re-enter on a gold close above $1,720. We should get good two sided action with increased volume.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/05/12 As with any market you can make rational arguments that will satisfy either the bull or bear case. We are no longer in a normal cycle. Ie growth-slowdown-recovery. Growth has normal yields, slowdown lower yields, and recovery as yields begin to rise. The world is in a mess. Heavy central bank and government intervention will continue for possibly another 2-3 years. Europe needs lower rates, the Fed wants growth to continue, all equals more stimulus, without the normal outcome of inflation ( albeit, that will come). In this environment, I can make a much stronger case for $2,000 gold than I can for $1,200. A massive aka 2008 stock market drop would change my paradigm. The retail investor got badly burned last time around, but they'll be back albeit at higher prices.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/06/12 Markets pop on Draghi's bond purchase program. Hmmm sell the fact? If the Fed doesn't do anything next week, this market has a lot of short term air under it. Not that impressed with the moves. As I write in the dark (written early this morning), silver flat and gold up only $7. US economic numbers on unemployment better. Euro actually down, be careful.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/07/12 Momentum continues higher as weaker jobs reinforces the notion the Fed "will" act next week. If the Fed does nothing watch out. Until then, people are riding the wave. Gold if it closes here could see $1,770. Silver could test $34.20. If you already own metals and want to track them accuretely, check out bulliontracking.com, 1-month free trial available.
Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/10/12 Markets treading water ahead of the Fed this week. Everyone expects the Fed to act. Look out below if they don't. No choice but to be flat this market ahead of the announcements (or not).
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/11/12 I don't mind at all! All are welcome here.. A moment this morning to remember the victims of 9/11 Markets are in very tight range ahead of the Fed later this week. The dollar is straddling 1.28 Euro, equities firmer. Can't say much more. Take profits as you get them. The fuse is lit for a big move.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/13/12 Appologies for yesterday.. here were my thoughts: Markets really, really nervous ( almost added another really). Euro keeps running as if everything is back to the good old days. I want to be short more than I like apple fritters and that's saying a lot, but I have seen this mania before and prefer not to stand in front of the train. My guts says lower but my wallet says stay away. And this morning... First guess yesterday was right and then they covered ahead of today. Play it tight. Markets could be $50 either side of current gold and $2 either side of current silver by the close. Bernanke your up.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/14/12 My gut wanted me to short the market ahead of the Fed announcements yesterday. My brain said stand aside. The hammer that caused the market to fly wasn't the Fed suggesting that monetary easing would continue but that it would continue even if the economy began to show signs of strength .and at a minimum out to mid 2015. Looking at the dollar weakness and oil strength this morning, I am not impressed with the metals and suggest some profit taking may be in the cards. Lots of news still to develop in the markets: US election, EU plan, fiscal cliff, THE MIDDLE EAST, and free money. Difficult to make a short term bearish case. Need to buy on pull-backs. It was slow in the summer but not anymore (no grumbling now that we are busy). Maybe next summer you will appreciate the break.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/17/12 - from Hong Kong Although I was up this morning at 4:30 it was in HK. So I write to you as of my normal time of 6 am back home, but sipping a diet coke at 6 pm in HK. I must still be jet lagged, not usually this easily amused. Anyway, watched the markets most of the day in HK and as you can tell from the charts, not much happened. Traders are talking the market up on the basis of the extended free ride we received from the Fed last week, but not too many are putting their money on the line with fresh buying. Until we hear more news mid-week, the metals will trade in tandem with equities and counter the US$ moves. Got to believe some profit taking is imminent but I've seen this movie before. A guess would be softer but I cant make a strong call here. That's what you get for putting me on a 14.5 hour flight.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/18/12 - Day #2 in HK I guess there was a small part of my gut not jet lagged yesterday. Markets will continue to trade off US$ range and equity movements. If Euro breaks down below 1.30 to the US$ expect continued weakness, which may accelerate into a mini panic as profit taking takes over. I am still constructive this market over the medium term but do see price risk in the short term, subject to headline news of which there is a lot. Arab unrest, China/Japan (not to concerned here), Iran (a little further down the road), Euro news, economic numbers at week end. The boys here, ie Deutsche Bank, see some short term corrections but are in the camp of $1,820-$1,850 as next target. As a trader, I continue to want to lock and go.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/19/12 - Day #3 in HK Bank of Japan weighs in with more quantitative easing and the metals soar , gold up $4 and silver up .15. equities up and the Euro still holding above 1.30 which gives me enough pause not to aggressively hit this market, but I sense a toppish feel at $1,778 . Lock and go has worked well for us but a sell order could do some damage. Suspect if the market drops, it will happen today. Do not see aggressive downside action as the weekend nears. Remember I am one half day closer to the weekend from here.
At what point do you stop being a trader metalsmtl and become a stacker in order to protect your position?
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/20/12 This market is feeling heavier by the day. do not like the price action and suspect a significant move is close. My guts been right to be on the shortish side. The news is all out there, unless we get some geopolitical event. We know everybody will print money for as long as it takes, which makes me constructive medium term. Something is making the little hairs stand up. Could be the air conditioning but I don't think so.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/21/12 Not much to say on the markets. Very narrow range, it's a Friday and I think Asians and Europeans took profits on the Euro, oil and covered their metals positions. May see gold trade into the 1,760s but suspect it will close above $1,770. Weekend and nobody wants major risk. Next week should set the tone for the next directional move. Have a great weekend! If you already own metals and are looking for a tool to help track the performance of your metals visit www.bulliontracking.com. A 1 month free trial is available. Designed by industry profressionals, including yours truly.
Most recently, I have been cost averaging into my personal stack since $27 silver. Added to the stack this morning in fact.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 09/26/12 Back from HK.. sorry, Monday was a travel day, Tuesday I slept. The civil awakening has begun in earnest in Spain and Greece. The dawn of no more free rides is sinking in and as with "children", its easy to always say yes, but the consequences of a "no" will always create a significant reaction. The US will also taste this time-out in the not too distant future. Spanish regions speaking cessation, alla Quebec circa 1976 and the financial consequences are still evident. This market could explode either way. I am still in camp of down. Will watch equities closely. Flight to cash will be negative for the metals and these markets are very scared. Also quarter end, two days away and I would lock my profits in, if I were a fund manager.
