btw. I wonder if all the analysts are working with flawed models since the machines are now doing the trading in a manipulated paper market and all previous price comparisons were based upon actual humans assessing buy and sell.
Certainly possible we have an ordinary year. If we don't see it start to move up mid june onwards the likelyhood will start to increase.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/15/12 Markets resting today. Better economic numbers from Germany should provide a respite from the selling. Gold needs to hold $1,550 or the $1,520's are the next level. Equity markets may bounce today after seven day of losses. JP Morgan Chase's loss although damaging to the retail investor's psyche , is a minor blip on their bottom line. Metals may move higher today. Like long side intra day.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/16/12 or 16/15/12 It took silver about an hour of rest before $28.00 was violated. Gold took the better part of the day but eventually $1,550 gave up the fight. Silver now ready to attack double support at $26.50which if lost should set stage for $22-$24 level. Gold in the low $1,400's very real target. Something a little different this time. no place to hide. Equities under pressure as markets look forward to the financial mess facing the US after the election. Rates at zero and global growth slowing dramatically. Are we looking at a global Japan model aka 1990's for the world. I hear the shovels in Utah as the neighbours begin digging the foundations for their bunkers. If you want a hedge buy Smith and Wesson.
Morning Outlook form the Trade Desk 05/17/12 or 17/05/12 Morning Outlook fromt he Trade Desk 05/17/12 Merkel says we stand together, we'll see. Fed says it may add more liquidity, we'll see. Everyone bearish the metals, pause. I am still hopeful to see my lower levels but yesterdays news caused the shorts to get nervous and the markets bounced from their lows. All eyes on Facebook IPO, which if NOT successful will not bode well for the equity markets in the short term. The market is very skittish. Prices between $1,535-$1,550 with risk to an upside break on continued short covering, but trend should continue lower. When we have 8 sellers to every two buyers on the retail side, we will have arrived at the lows. Ratio is moving in that direction, but not there yet. You can check out some thought provoking PM articles here - bulliontracking.com/en/blogs/
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/18/12 or 18/05/12 Short covering continued in Asia overnight as many got caught. The bad numbers from a regional Fed report yesterday gave many the hope of further Fed easing. There seems to be a consensus building that the US will have to print more dollars to meet the demand coming from Europe. The metals have decoupled recently from the safe haven trade but the dollar is up and so are metals. Will need to be watched closely. Until further evidence this still appears to be a short cover rally. But profit taking on the short Euro trade, US$ has been up for the last eight trading days, may scare more shorts. Saw something of interest this week that you don't see everyday; Baird & Co. launched a 1 oz rhodium bar. Here in North America, Kitco is selling them in their online store https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html#rhodium Have a good weekend everybody.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/22/12 I appologize for the late post. Quebec's wonderful summer construction tactics never miss a beat. 1.5 hours to drive 15 miles today... ouch. Markets again weaker overnight but only moderately. Traders awaiting tomorrows EU Summit and hoping with all their might that Germany may relent on issuing Eurobonds which should create some short term support for the Euro and an expected increase in metals values. If Germany holds firm, would expect Euro to continue to weaken which may bring the second test of $1,527, which if it occurs will give way, in my humble opinion.
Morning Outlook From the Trade Desk 05/23/12 Will Merkel blink? The bulls sure hope so. Every appendage on their bodies is crossed. Gold just hanging around $1,550 support, which will evaporate if Merkel stands firm. Should be an active market. Call out your one armed, blind monkeys and start having them throw their darts. Retail sales up 50% in May over April. Volatile prices the #1 reason.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/24/12 or 24/05/12 The meltdown should have carried through yesterday, but I assume ahead of any potential announcements from the EU Summit, people covered their shorts. Ok so what was the good news. There wasn't any hmmm. Metals should have tanked overnight, but as you will note they are up strongly, even after the Fed re-affirmed NO short term easing plans hmmmm Suspect, two things: The price for gold in Europe is actually rising in Euro terms and I suspect there is large physical off take in that market. Also Iran has not gone away and I don't see the Israelis waiting until after the election. From an economics point of view, the commodity complex should and probably will continue lower. One element that trumps fundamental logic all the time is FEAR and there is plenty of that around. Please note I'm on vacation as of tomorrow returning to the desk 06/11/12. Posts will resume then.
Good morning, I've returned from an excellent vacation to the southern Unites States - you must visit Goergia one day, beautiful parks and small towns. Anyway, onto the business at hand; This morning I offer you a high-level, mid-term overview. Currently attending the IPMI conference in Las Vegas. The conference is well attended and consensus appears to continue to be volatile short term markets, focused on dollar value, European consensus and US growth. Majority see higher prices in 4th quarter. These are the pros in the market and I would tend to agree. 2013 outlook is very positive for the metals. Regular daily posts to resume upon my return to the desk.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/19/12 Markets slightly firmer on nothing more than nervousness against the Fed meeting tomorrow and the G-20 meeting Thursday. As I suggested yesterday, I am not backing up the truck to buy, but I also do not want to sweat it out being short. The next two days can break or make a traders month. Even my monkey is sitting quietly eating bananas and awaiting Germany's expected win over Greece.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/20/12 Very tight ranges as markets await the Fed speak due out around 2 pm. If the Fed disappoints a significant sell-off may occur. If the Fed extends operation twist, there should be an initial updraft, but much of this scenario is already in the market. It will take an outright pledge for QE3 to blow the market higher ( I am not in this camp, but you never can say never with the Fed). I suspect the Fed will extend operation twist for a short period and jawbone that they stand ready to step in if things get worse with the economy. Ie status quo.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/21/12 The Fed did the minimum they could to placate the markets. As Tim pointed out, they extended Twist until the end of the year to bounce over the election time-table and jawboned that they would be prepared to do more if necessary. Fundamentally, as Jon points out the supply/demand picture is firmly bearish. All will now watch what comes out of G-20, which probably also will be more jawboning. Remember the Europeans tend to take the month of August off, major action is unlikely until after Labour Day. The one point to be careful of, prior to shorting the boat, is that the market will be very sensitive to any worsening economic news in fear of the Fed surprising them. This will create frantic gyrations, with the underlying tone being soft. Still in the camp, to take the money when you have it. markets will get thinner as the Summer takes hold. Why sweat the day to day emotions. A bird in the hand pays the rent.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/22/12 or 22/06/12 Markets finally understood that the Fed did virtually nothing on Wednesday. Yesterdays news of Moody downgrading 15 International Banks, that was pre-announced before the close, added to the continuing selling of the metals. Gold still some $50 away from serious support, however silver is dangerously close to the double bottom of $26.60 ish. A close below this level may set-up move to the $22-$24 range. Would still take the money off the table as we go. Staying short over weekend is not worth the risk, with European news possible while markets are closed. I am watching oil closely. In the last two down cycles, oil was able to maintain the $76 level. A bounce, albeit it may be a dead cat bounce, in oil will be metals price supportive. Scarry world out there, with the "D" word starting to be whispered. Have a great weekend.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/26/12 or 26/06/12 Thin and nervous markets yesterday. They tried to break silver below the $26.65 mark but when they couldn't they tried the other side and scared the shorts. Silver rallied almost a $1. Silver must break down to close below $26.60 for downtrend to accelerate. I am not a chartist but I think the charts would show a triple bottom for silver, which should be at least technically inspiring. G-20 meeting and headline news will keep these markets nervous. Going flat to long at support and letting the market take you short on bounces has proven a good trading strategy.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/27/12 or 27/06/12 Everything remains quiet ahead of the G-20. Markets should stay in their recent range today but a major news today tomorrow. Supreme Court ruling on Obama Care, unemployment preview, start of G-20 . Buy the dips today. Cant imagine anyone aggressively short ahead to tomorrow.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 06/28/12 or 28/06/12 No sense in guessing on the headlines today. Enough said that any news or no news could cause a significant move. I really would do nothing. Too many crosswinds. If silver approached $26.60 I would buy. If it approached $27.30 I would sell. At these levels I would watch.Stay flat and enjoy watching the German/Italian match at 2:45 ET. Sauerkraut and sausages for one and all.
