As requested, I'm going to post my morning thoughts in one continuous thread. Here is the outlook for 04/25/12 or 25/04/12: Markets flat ahead of the FOMC meeting this afternoon. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged but the market will watch for any tone change in language. Maybe the Fed will say it is worried about European contagion and put QE3 back on the table, or they may say the US economy although not great is moving along and no further stimulus is needed. The market is desperately waiting for a solid signal to give it direction. Probably wont come today, but safer to be flat ahead of the meeting, than second guess the outcome.
Morning Outlook for 04/26/12 or 26/04/12 Access to desk top was not available this morning. IT still giving me the worst personal service. Might have to let them beat me at golf. Bernanke happy to do nothing. Initially killed the metals before the shorts covered. This morning continues with an upward bias. Although no QE3 zero rates are pretty accomodative. England in recession and Europe not likely to raise rates, makes me skeptical on the rally. Dollar should benefit. But there are a lot of shorts in the market. Prefer to stay away here. Missed the buy yesterday. Had intentions to enter a silver trade but ran into my contrarian indicator IT Director and had a brief meeting. By the time I sat at my desk the opportunity was gone. Maybe I won't let him win at golf afterall.
I quite like this. I'll be the first to admit i wasn't keen on seeing posts from a trade desk atfirst, but now I've got over the 'investment racism', and read your posts on your own personal strategies, howeverbrief they may be, I'm very much looking forward to reading more! Do you have a blog or diary, or is this your only output? Cheers, RD
For the time being this is it, but I am in discussion with another precioud metals site to post a daily blog. I'll keep you all posted. My morning blurbs are intended to catter to all levels of investors and other (my average staff age is about 29 or so...
Morning Outlook for 04/27/12 or 27/04/12 S&P downgrades Spain two notches, but the equity markets and surprisingly the Euro are relatively strong. Metals unchanged after yesterdays pop, but very susceptible to a headline story. Short term trend will be focused on the US$/Euro pricing.
Morning Outlook for 04/30/12 or 30/04/12 Metals settled into a slightly higher paradigm. Euro didn't sell off on Spains downgrade and the shorts covered last week. Market needs more juice to break through $1,670 and must hold $1,650. Ho hum, sounds like a range.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/01/12 or 01/05/12 Gold attempted a break of $1,650 but was thwarted and the market settled comfortably in the middle of the range by the close. Markets tired and path of least resistance appears lowers. Equity markets are flat. Focus today will be on dollar. Range is still in play.
Morning Outlook for 05/02/12 or 02/05/12 Gold hit the top end of the range yesterday and then reversed on better than expected economic numbers. Remember, good numbers would lead to a tighter Fed bias, aka good for the dollar and bad for metals. This morning flirting at support around $1,650. US dollar up this morning accounts for metal weakness. Would still like to see a wash out to levels mentioned last week but my medium term 6 months and further out remains bullish. The more depressed the dealers become the more bullish becomes my sentiment. They are actually amazed that they have to work for profits. Whats this all about.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/03/12 or 03/05/12 Gold just hung on to support yesterday but overnight the lack of interest has it trading below the line. levels when discussed are on a close basis, so theoretically the support has not been violated, but unless we have a significant headline, the metals "should" trend lower. Still awaiting my hoped for washout, but its like watching paint dry. Dollar the key again.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/04/12 or 04/05/12 Market tried once to test $1,650 and the law of least resistance took hold and hit the metals. Silver this morning has broken $30 and gold trades in the high $1,620's as I write. Gold should have some small support at $1,622 and then again at $1,607. Unemployment report due out at 8:30 and numbers are expected to be in the low range of estimates There may be a knee-jerk reaction to the numbers and we are going into the weekend but I am still seeing the possibility of $22-$24 silver and $1,420-$1,450 gold. However if the Fed needs to act again, because the politicians are hog tied with the election, the scenario will change in a hurry.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/07/12 or 07/05/12 Socialists win in France and Greece cannot not even manage a coalition party with the top two parties. As expected equity markets in Europe are under pressure as austerity talks may now need to resume. Hard not to see this benefiting the dollar in the short term. First reaction from the metals was down and now they are almost unchanged from Fridays close. The metals again should trend lower as money moves to the dollar. The Euro is again approaching 1.30 to the dollar, where there has been significant short term support. This level will need to be breached to give the dollar momentum.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/08/12 or 08/05/12 The talking heads actually convinced the markets yesterday that the election outcomes in Greece and France were of no issue. Mmmm , European equities down sharply today. US futures look weak and Euro, pips away from breaking 1.30. Gold again right at significant support in the mid $1,620's. silver now clearly through the $30 level. In silver there are incidental support levels, but nothing major until $26 ish. All the gold bugs cried heresy yesterday when Buffet suggested it was a worthless asset. I don't agree with him. Gold is as good or bad as any investment. Buying stocks in 2002, was a bad idea. Buying them in 2008 was very smart. Real estate today much better than buying in 2006. Gold at $400 great , at $1,900 not so smart. In the short to medium term 0-9 months, it is conceivable that the Euro may test 1.10. strong dollar not good for metals. But I have zero faith in the US government coming through, which will again signal weakness in the dollar and stronger metals. The basis of holding metals on an adjusted cost base as a percentage of a diversified portfolio still and will continue to make sense.
US economy cannot deal with a high USD and to quote the Swiss they are IMHO "is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities."
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/09/12 or 09/05/12 - lots to talk about today gents The Greeks begin to pray, swear austerity is off the table. They will soon need to decide if they should/can pay the army or the police or their pensioners as the monetary flow will be cut off from the ECB. Does the world really need ouzo. Metals blew through support yesterday as monetary flows moved into the dollar, but more importantly investors that were re-scared (my new word) didn't buy insurance but ran to cash, liquidating their most fluid asset, metals. Is this the 1930's heading for a second depression. Don't think so. The boys will continue to print where necessary. Maybe my long forecast washout is underway. Will not be a straight line if I am right but a choppy pattern with lower highs. The give-up stage or capitulation is still a ways off, but I have already booked my truck rental in anticipation. In the interim, take profits where they are found. Check out some interesting precious metals related blogs here: www.bulliontracking.com/en/blogs/
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/10/12 or 10/05/12 Markets experienced a minor bounce yesterday. Focus on jobs data, equities and dollar today. Very nervous markets. would not be aggressive either way. The trend unless the Fed surprises with more easing talk continues to look lower. The Euro has clearly broken 1.30 which now becomes the resistance level. Us equities are due for a bounce which may be price supportive for the industrial metals. Movements will be exaggerated.
Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 05/11/12 or 11/05/12 Broke the Cardinal rule of a trader yesterday and acted on misunderstood info. Had the info been as I understood, the trade would have been right. Even grizzly traders require mea copas now and then. At least it was not a loss, just took profit way too early. The big news however was JP Chases announcement of a $2 billion, I suspect it will be more, loss on a hedge that went wrong. My modest experience would suggest a hedge is to mitigate loss , not cause it. Turns out they can afford it, but it is still uncertain if there will be collateral damage. The " boys" don't seem to have learned their lessons from 2008. Sounds like compliance jobs will be the next growth sector. This announcement created worry and the stock markets reacted accordingly. Add slower China growth and the metals again moved lower.
Morning Outlook from the Trade DEsk 05/14/12 or 14/05/12 Markets are very thin and nervous. Solid moves in either direction are possible. Dollar remains well bid and equities remain well sold. Gold down another $20 and silver testing $28.20 ( minor support). I worry that much of Europe is being priced in. Everyone is betting that the Central banks will be there to add liquidity. I suspect the Europeans will begin to taker softer line on austerity and begin to follow the US model. This should be price supportive to the metals. I realllyyyy would like to see a capitulation in the metals. A feeling that the metals markets are over and quick selling, ideally taking silver below $26 and gold into my target range of $1,420-50. Trucks gassed up.
Here's a perspective. Not sure I agree with it, but it's different to most http://profitimes.com/free-articles/20-years-from-now-gold-12000-silver-1000/ See the link for the charts.
