ag, a lot of people value things from the highest price. Silver was $35 3 months ago and under $31 at the start of the year. The run up to $49 and subsequent retracement is what is causing a lot of the silver will drop statements. In USD, I believe we have seen the lows for the year. Bernanke appears to be slowly backing away from his ending of QE. If Bernanke stops support for the US stock market and ends QE, then we will go lower. If not, then we will go higher. I don't believe there is much in between in this situation.
Not enough people seem to want to invest in silver, although I have heard that India and China are backing the trucks up few other people I know are interested in the stuff. Even other members of the coin club aren't interested in stacking over much and you would think they would be enthusiastic. I know some people are having a hard time at the moment but the Global Financial Crisis kind of passed us by. I get the feeling that we are like the grasshoper who lazed around all Summer and the Indians and Chinese are the ants who worked all Summer long to prepare for winter. When winter comes we are going to be in for a shock as it will hit us completely unexpected. Without the fear of hyperinflation or mass unemployment we have a pretty laid back attitude to investing with most people feeling that by having a super they don't need to do anything else, she'll be right! I think we will have a bit more of a correction because of all the manic buying when silver was on the up, now peope realise they aren't going to make money without doing any work and they could actually lose money so they have lost all interest. Less demand = lower prices? I think in the long run they will go up again so I am holding at the moment.
This is probably a bit off topic but was talking to a few people at work who are retiring in a couple of years and they told me their super funds were all set on "high growth" with a 35%+ stake in RE and another 35%+ in stocks... You're right the sheeple have no idea! This is why the Silver market is scary...even with so few players the prices are this volatile, imagine if we had the entire chinese and indian population buying up silver...we'd be in 4 digit values lol.
Damn I hate the word sheeple... If you invest in pms and have an inkling about what's 'really' going on in the world, that just makes you one of the smarter sheep...
My last purchase was a panic buy , i had`nt finished taking my position and the price was rising , i bought 1000 oz at 41 spot (physical ) ...so suffice to say that my next buy " i hope " is a much better one . So i have been hanging on everything i hear , read all the editorials , and absorbed as much information as i can . I think long term , the outlook is positive , silver has basically flat lined for years , other than 1980 , but you would have to say that it does`nt add up , for a relatively scarce metal and an important one , the price should be and in my opinion will be a lot higher. But in the short to medium term , it is very difficult , Yes all the fundamentals are there for a continued bull run , but we are in strange times, and there are so many factors that influence the outcome . I think if you take the speculators out of the equation , and it may well be the case with the enactment of the Dodd-Frank act , you are basically left with the true investor and the people who have large volumes of wealth and are constantly looking for a safe place to store it , and i think the latter has more of an influence over the spot price . I cant help feeling that when the printing of US currency stops , the wealth storer`s will regain their faith in the US dollar and the Dow and PM`s will take a downward hit . How long will it stay there is the question ? ... influencing factors are still unfolding as we speak , i see it as a buying oportunity , even if we do have to bunker in for a while . I dont think the highs will be as high as the financial bulls are saying and i think it will take longer to get there . Some interesting comments above , whos right and whos wrong , time will tell ... I hope i am wrong and i wake tomorrow to $200 spot ... !!!
IMHO the price is going to rise for few days then tank just before the GF2 is wrapped up. Like most things there will be a perception of strength in the price before the next mob get burnt so we could test 39USD even. If you hold onto physical you have little to worry about in the medium to long term but i would not want to be in future contracts or any other paper derivative at this time on the long side..
I think it may drop a little just because there is so much uncertainty about QE3 etc but I dont believe it will go below $30, if it does I think it will be very brief as a lot of people are waiting for it to happen so they can buy up big. If the Indians and Chinese bought up big at those levels last time they will again, but there may be a problem with supply so people who are waiting for it to drop may miss out anyway. Once the price starts to climb again what method can they use next time to halt its rise? There does seem to be a bit of paranoi about letting silver go over $50, must be a reason for that. I suppose it is a bit of a psychological barrier, once 50 is breeched nothing can stop it!
I think the industries using silver will be very resilient to a crash. Just look at the renewable energy market, people are so addicted to electricity that they think the carbon tax will ruin their lives and life on earth as we know it. Heaven forbid that the try to use 10% less electricity to negate the 10% rise in price due to the tax. Nope, people in this country would rather go without a holiday than to cut down their energy use. Same with all the electronics that everyone carries around today, continuously head down texting or whatever. People will give up a lot of things in the next GFC, but energy and consumer electronics will carry on as normal. Add to that the growing number of antibiotic resistant bugs getting around, the medical uses are growing as well and people will pay anything for their health.
I dont think silver will reach it's optimum price for us for another three to four years at least, The $US dollar is a dead man walking but it wont happen overnight, Those in control will not let it just flame out , they need a sort of smooth transaction from one global currency to another. It will be in that transition that gold and silver will peak, once in place tho it will be back to the normal control that we have seen , and gold and silver will be back to relative current value. Getting in now and holding till the peak will be the trick tho. (when and then what?)
I think if we go into another GFC with Greece defaulting on its debt and having a knock on effect throughout europe and all the other countries truly realise the consequences of their huge public deficits silver prices will get hit hard and gold prices will drop but not as much as silver thats just my opinion though, mainly based on what happened last GFC.
End game is when our current financial system ends. Like all previous systems since Ancient Greece it will and it will end badly. It's not if Greece defaults it's when. Ditto all the PIIGS. Like the fiscal resets in the past there will be a reset in the near future. We are all betting on a new place for PM in that future setting- that is the risk we in this forum take. I don't think it is much of a risk as I don't see any viable alternative bar alien arrivals.
^^^ all posts above cheers... There's some great points but nothing quite explains what I was chasing...actually most of the above show's opposite to the opening post - seems the shine has not gone out of PM's after all? What I do read or hear from these posts is the expectation of a repeat GFC where 'everything' takes the drive...well everything did 2008 except US dollars (as it was seen the safe haven asset class). Would investors fall for this a second time? would they not have researched the 'causes' for the GFC and learn better direction? is the US dollar still considered safe to the world wide investor? The media has even given up saying US/Greece/etc are fine - instead just pretty quiet...so for the coming correction, what are investors going to flood to? I can only see PM's as a choice IMHO Again,many thanks for the time spent posting your thoughts above... regards Ag
PMs aren't the only choice though. Lots of "real" or "hard" assets will hold their value or increase compared to a crashing currency/economy. If you look back in recent history you will see that PMs were valued but so where many other things - diamonds, serious art works, long life shelf basic foods, some businesses, yes - even some real estate. Read up on what the Jews tried to bury (or the Nazis confiscated), what things were valuable on the black market in Vietnam during the war, or in Argentina during it's economic meltdown and things like that and you will very quickly gain an understanding of what sorts of things you can "invest" in to cover your ar$e and maintain the purchasing power of your "wealth" during an economic meltdown. malachii
Another great one I had recently was talking to a South African. They are experts at maintaining the international "value" of their "personal wealth" while making it extremely mobile. malachii
I'm into gold,not silver , though I have both. Precious Metals. Gold is $1450,Silver is $34.Gold is precious,Silver is 30 times less precious, its not even in the same league. Silver is speculative and risky,Gold is stable and safe. They are nothing like each other. Why does the market value gold 30 time more than silver if they are similar. Just because they are both called PM's , doesn't mean they act the same way. It annoys me when people put them in the same basket. In a SHTF situation people will eventually go for the safety of gold and flee the speculative nature of silver. There would be little money for speculation,and a lot of worried money for safety. In 2008 silver fell alot more than gold in percentage terms. And investors have just seen a lot of people be badly burned by Silver. Also Industry will use alot less Silver in an economic downturn. So this is why I invest as I do. In good times Silver. In bad times gold. Silver runs on greed,gold runs on fear. If you want to gamble then Silver , if you want the preserve your money then Gold.
Malachii, What do you think about the prospects of investing in diamonds? Do you think it is something we should consider diversifying into? I have heard that they lose a lot of value in hard economic times. Any thoughts?
