Hi Stackers, Sorry to pull you away from the Buy,Sell,Swap section but have a question you might be able to help me with... I've noticed a certain sentiment over the last two months (both here and external) where there is an expected correction (drop) coming in the precious metals...seems there's some 'liquidation' from members off loading PM's for very reasonable prices...perhaps for various reasons but unusually high percentage to be the standard gouging bills...so I'm somewhat puzzled... I hoping you can explain why you feel there's a coming correction in precious metals to me? Perhaps an article you read? or a UT video you saw? could you post the link? Was there a Stacker memo I got left out on? or a thread I didn't see? Maybe your short term Bearish but still long term Bullish? Selling to gain a bigger position down the track? QE2? Maybe there's little reason to hold now US will instill strict monetary policies? I'm not trying to lure the 'Bears' out to ambush,skirmish and attack there view points - I really am interested to hear your view points For other readers - Lets keep this thread friendly - if there's something you heavy disagree with,PLEASE BE TACTFUL WITH YOUR RESPONSE! If you prefer to stay anonymous, either PM me or the Admin to post on your behalf Look forward to your comments... regards Ag
I don't think anyone knows what will happen to the price around July.... QE2 is occurring and the OTC laws are changing in America (which I have yet to find an explanation of what may happen to the POS amd POG). At the moment I am waiting to buy some more PM's and to bring my cost average down I want it less than $30 - $33 so I am waiting for that price to buy more. It seems a gamble but buying Silver, Gold or Shares is a gamble at the moment. If Silver does drop below $30 I do not see it staying there for very long....but do not take my word for it.
Bulawan pilak - thanks for the post... ...so can I confirm your waiting to buy some more PM's to bring the cost average down? Can I ask why you will think the spot will drop? or just two fingers crossed - hey nothing wrong with that - I'll cross my toes for cheap PM...
Yea it's very quite on the buying at the moment, think every ones in a holding pattern with the possibility of a drop with the end of QE2 and some saving up for Dragons. I've only sold what I needed to pay for pre- ordered Dragons, don't think I'll sell much of anything else at the moment.
Yep am guilt of the mythical creature robbing me also...but still ultimately, holding your position... cheers NQ
This is only my opinion and at the end of the day I am hoping that I am right. I did sell all my unallocated Silver in May, I brought PM's at the low and more recently I brought them and the price dropped a couple dollars. I do not like stressing out over a couple of dollars but I do want to bring my cost average down before I settle in. Going off what I have read, I am not going to quote anyone as i read lots of stuff. In relation to the 200 day moving average, a range of bulls including economists on Seeking alpha and Kitco are all saying that the price could drop to $28, $25 and so on. If the POS is manipulated and these Bulls are saying that the POS will drop this IMO adds fire to the manipulation. I think having all these experts talking the POS down, will stall more and more people from buying until they get this price or close to it. Having said that, once that price is reached ???? it could be only momentarily, it could keep dropping a little more. I would love for the price to drop below AUD$30. But I will settle for AUD$31 - $32 depending on the USD/AUD comparison. As I said, this is only my opinion and If anyone has inside information on events that will take place, please discuss with me as I am willing to listen.
Bulawan exactly my thoughts re 200 DMA. The only sense I can make of the technical charts is to do with the moving averages. Being an investor in silver I try to educate myself to make informed decisions (which is difficult when you've had as yippe describes - a lobotomy). Now my education is far from complete, but I would rather make a somewhat low-educated investment decision rather than one of the heart, so I'm not buying silver.
Actually never read any of Seeking Alpha's stuff...not to bad... One article on 'Picking where the Silver spot will go' dated 11 May 2011 closed by saying: For those with a multi-year outlook who are capable and willing to tolerate wild fluctuations, I do still favor accumulating physical silver, believe it will go over $100/oz, and that the gold/silver ratio will continue to decline. Eric Sprott's commentary from March 2011 (pdf) on silver is one of my favorite pieces that summarizes the great opportunity that silver offers. Pretty fair comment as something I would expect many of us would agree... So still confused why the sentiment is bearish? especially NOW ? ...no other brave souls going to share with the group?
I'm bullish so can't offer an opinion as to why people think it will tank :| I can offer a guess though, the paper traders holding Gold and Silver ETFs will ditch them and head for the US T-Bills because in the short term they will give better returns and are 'safer' (in their eyes). A mass influx of sales of paper will cause the price to tank. The new OTC ban forcing a lot of players to liquidate their paper positions may also have an effect but it depends on their positions, such as the size and whether its long or short.
If this happens and is actually translated into the physical market, I will spend on a few hundred ounces and won't think silver for at least another 6 months
It leapt on speculation,and then crashed. People got burned. Its is not going back up now,so if it's not going up,its likely to go down to where it started from. The - To the Moon crowd - have lost favour. Also we seem to be headed into another economic downturn that will strip silver of its Industrial backup. Just my opinion. The fact that silver buffs are not buying is a major indicator in itself. This lack of confidence shows future possibilities in itself. Its what causes the future. Interesting to find out what different overseas forums might be experiencing in terms of buying and selling interforum.
hmmm...with Fishballs comments above on the EFT's and Seeking alpha/Kitco might be getting somewhere...will the physical keep track with the paper market? or will the decouple start? will premiums above spot just expand to higher percentages then currently? It sounds great buying silver at $25/oz but if the premium is 45%, than $37/oz is the end value - plus 'mint markups' etc... Thanks again for the above.... regards Ag
Thanks Peter, Although I disagree with some of your points, shouldn't Gold be following the same trend as Silver? Perhaps I've waffled to much on Ag, but the tread was aimed at all precious metals - seems they 'all have lost favor' Yes oversea's investing patterns would show some interesting directions... So due to a possible economic downturn,Silver being industrial would drop (accept) but what about the others? Is silver pruely industrial metal with no PM status or monetary value?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag0365nyb.html The 1-year chart still looks incredibly good. Lots gained and the only people burned are those that bought at the recent huge gains. It's basically returned to where it was on the 14th of March-ish despite the heavy attempts to push it down (and the premiums on physical are fatter than they were earlier in the year). I'm still incredibly enthusiastic on silver.
I suppose that's the point in the end Ag, we live in very interesting times, we might actually be witnesses to the collapse of an empire. The major empire of the past century. That doesn't happen too often in the history of western civilisation, so technical analysis charts could just be chucked out the window for all they're worth. But, you still need to base your decisions on something, whether that be conspiratorial theories or market analysis I don't know. I'm bullish on silver, it's just that I'm not in season yet. Gold though - well I've been busy. And it goes against everything I've said about silver. Work that out?
I agree with BBQ buying and selling in an unstable bull market is risky and giving up your silver positions you face the risk of being left behind when the bull suddenly charges ahead. I have been investing in PM since 1998 and my philosophy is keep a low profile and steady as she goes. If you accept PM as the future of world currency simply keep accumulating slowly each month as you can afford and don't worry about short term changes. It is the end game that counts.In 5 years time when most of us believe the price will be north of $100 will it matter if you bought Ag (5yrs ago) at $32 or $34. It wouldn't worry me.
I wouldn't say I feel there's a correction coming in precious metals. But I can say I feel GFC2 is coming, and everything will drop. Tin foil hat: "Look at the charts and what do you see?" Me: "It's a re-run of the 2008 GFC" Tin foil hat: "Don't say I didn't warn you, though there's no guarantee" @_@ I'd like to bag out the share market and say how useless it seems, but then I'd have to write pages explaining why I think over 70% of companies don't have any fundamentals for "organic growth". All I'll say is that the market ain't gonna get better until productivity plus innovation returns and debt usage gets thrown out the window. That's not happening. People haven't learnt their lesson, and vested interests are cut that they didn't make enough gains on the last GFC, so this one will let them clean up. If it's gonna happen anyway, may as well make lemonade :| I wouldn't call myself a drop bear either, because I'm very keen on buying and it's taken lots of dicipline to hold out, especially on those Dragon pre-orders O_O
