Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.
She has a lovely personality!
Figured this was a good spot to put this Vid.
James would have to be one of the most switched on Youtubers out there.
He has been there done that. Always happy to learn from someone who
has the finger on the pulse.
just take it as impacted /displaced people due to natural disaster, lucky to be a life
it won't change a thing when the white swans are around
He's good, I don't agree with everything he says, particularly his views on the current inflationary cycle, but that's not anything new.
That is fair enough Shiney.
I do agree with his view on the current inflationary cycle.
The numbers speak for themselves.
Not the made up ones from the Fed and CB's.
Have you read Jeff Booth - "The Price of Tomorrow"?
Very interesting little book discussing Deflation and how Technology
plays a pivotal role in destabilizing the current Monetary system, moving exponentially from Inflation to Deflation.
At present, I believe we are in the Inflationary period.
Another concept which I find fascinating stems from a book by Strauss–Howe on generational theory
entitled "The Fourth Turning". It discusses various cycles throughout history, including the 80 year and the
Daddy of them all, the 320 year cycle. Admittedly, the book is focused on the US, it does point a bleak future globally.
You can download it for free.
When you tie these various cycles together, we are heading for a major Global change in history within the next few years.
Not an exact science, just like economics.
However, in my opinion it does carry some weight.
UK planes took a long detour around Germany to deliver weapons to Ukraine in case Russia invades
Swans are for sabotage. Big war over big territory, you need to roll hundreds of tanks.
It's not the numbers I dispute, it's the cause. QE is not inflationary as the money hasn't been getting to the people. The current inflation is pandemic driven, typically a greater than normal imbalance in the demand/supply curve brought about by staff shortages, transportation delays, cross-border quarantining practices etc etc. And you can chuck in a trade war with China just to help make matters worse.
I haven't read any Jeff Booth from memory, but I'd agree that technological change has a deflationary effect on the cost of consumer goods. I wouldn't necessarily draw the conclusion that we are in an inflationary period just because we have seen a couple of quarters of record breaking inflation though for the reasons above. I'd argue it's more of a secular event.
Not familiar with that at all but on face value I wouldn't share that view as our current monetary system only developed about 50 years ago. From my position therefore previous economic cycles in history are therefore largely irrelevant.
So maybe as investors we could be looking at increasing our exposure to bonds as they seem to be out of favour at the moment and prices have dropped significantly, and if my thesis is correct, the inflationary phase has either peaked or it will peak shortly?
Hi Shiney, This is where I disagree with you. You point out that QE money hasn't been getting to the people. Yet, if you look at the S&P over the last 10 years there is direct correlation with the S&P 500 & QE. Banks, Institutions, the high end of town do channel Fiat into the stock market. The big companies have been doing share buybacks consistently for years. That inflates the price, allows Directors to gorge on their freebee options selling back into the market and getting bonuses on top of it at very discounted rates. In turn, they re-invest in property and hard assets. That is one way QE is siphoned through the banking system. Inflation has been with us for a lot longer than a couple of years.
At the 6:12 James made the point just how correlated - 6:12 Relationship between Money Supply Growth and S&P 500 R2 .944 .944 is very significant.
At the 7:20 minute mark James shows another chart showing S&P 500 Vs Debt. .922 significance.
The key takeaway for me is that both the Money Supply and Debt is correlated to the S&P in which QE has fueled this giant bubble whereby the FED and Central Banks are completely out of control and don't have
anything left. They have no choice but to keep on printing. Hence, inflation will continue to increase and filter through to the average person. At some point in time the music will stop.
The Fourth Turning is about revolutionary cycles which occur every 320 years and minor every 80 years, usually when there is a major upheaval including currency debasement, major technological change, major Wars, including inflation
which has been around since the days of the Roman Empire and thinking it was a good idea to clip coinage. That is a debasement in itself. You know the Gold, Silver argument. Anyway always good to have differing viewpoints.
Thousands of stolen parcels litter LA railway - BBC News
Absolutely disgusting and worrying - there must be thousands of thieves doing this. The US should spend more on internal security: police should guard the trains and trucks.
LA already has a strong dystopian feel (at least from the videos). This is a half-way apocalyptic city.
You see this in movies.
In an extreme situation it will be too dangerous to drive a train. And/or trains will become self-driven because of the thieves and other concerns.
Or, there will be no more trains, trucks moving anything around, because it will be impossible. Things like this happened (and are still happening) in Venezuela.
If you wonder why your bullion package hasn't arrived, then you might find the answer here:
Look at this man, he is definitely Chinese, not white.
Same as this woman. If both of them walk on the street of HK and don't talk, 95 out of 100 persons will think they are Han Chinese from central and northern china. Han Chinese originate from Mongolia and beyond, that's why they look the same.
Compare with this and you might even mistake them for brothers or cousins which isn't surprising since maybe 1000-2000 years ago, they might have had the same steppe ancestor.
stolen or not, matter not. wasted none the less, INTENTIONALLY
there were 4 womans in Noah's ark, 3 tainted with experimental genes...the world generations are from these people
they are the ancestors of human race, so people resemblance are stunning, geographical locations and diets will have influence of the physical characteristics etc
some are giants with the poluted genes, after generations passed, those genes got diluted to extinction
Austria makes Covid vaccines mandatory
"The country’s parliament has made vaccination compulsory for all citizens, with those who resist facing fines of up to 3,600 euros ($4,000)"
Now they can even mass-euthanize their population if they wanted. People are not allowed to say "no".
This is where Orwellian-fascism starts.
Hitler was Austrian, remember. Mozart was German.
(but for some reason, people think it's the other way around)
I was referring to the effect that QE has on consumer price inflation not asset price inflation. We have been discussing the effect of QE and monetary policy on asset prices for some time now and many have been advising others to accumulate assets. Here's a post from 2019, fortunately for stackers hoping to use their profits in precious metals to buy RE, the value of houses has not risen as fast as metals. https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?threads/rba-governor’s-speech-26-11-19.93974/.
As far as CPI goes, the only way for newly created money to reach the people is either via direct government spending eg stymie cheques, welfare payments or direct government investment in the real economy by way of infrastructure projects etc or most typically, via the creation of new deposits in the banking system.
Now The Australian government has been extremely reluctant to spend or stimulate the economy with cash, despite the media rhetoric, whereas the US government has been more generous and this would have compounded the supply constraint issues around the pandemic causing higher inflation in the US than we see in Oz. So the money hasn't largely been reaching the people via that channel. Which leaves the only other method ie banks creating deposits in consumer's accounts when a loan is created. Unfortunately for the RBA's plans, this has fallen flat as credit is still trending down even with the unconventional monetary policy.
The following charts clearly show the 3 criteria and the failure of QE to create debt-fuelled growth in the economy:
1. Credit growth has been on a general decline the past decade, though there has been a surge in the recent 12 months or so:
2. Business lending has been chiefly to the big end of town as James and yourself point out, growth in lending to SMEs has flatlined:
3. Personal credit growth has seen an uptick in the 12 months to 2021 but it is still short of the levels a decade ago and well below the boom times of the China driven decade prior to the GFC:
The inflation we are witnessing in consumer prices is pandemic driven, not QE driven. Decades of QE has shown that it does not create inflation. That won't stop the pressure on our central banks, it will be a measure of their resilience and their commitment if they stick to their current plan. I expect The Fed to fold before the RBA though, but I'm taking a contrarian view and increasing my small exposure to the bond market as they are selling at a significant discount to previous prices, not for the sake of being contrarian, but based upon the fundamentals I outlined above because at some point in the very near future I see the message "clicking" and the talk of inflation and tapering will just go away.
Biggest surprise of 2022. Does this herald the birth of a European army?
We have a local joke for N-A-T-O.
A new crusade against the Pagans?
"Smash 'n' grab" robberies in California are the new trend.
This is worse than we feared. They simply organize themselves in gangs and openly enter shops, hitting and smashing windows, glass walls and threatening the sales people and customers.
Imagine a hoard of 8 people crashing through your shop windows with hammers, attacking employees and running away with the products.
Forced-Black Friday. Terrible. I hope this doesn't spread.
California legalized stealing less than 1k. Theres no charges or jail time anymore.
So many people are moving out that soon it might only be the poorest of the poor and rhe criminals left there.
The tax payers that can leave are moving in droves.
People are leaving their cars unlocked now so windows dont get broken haha. Sounds like a liberal utopia! Good job Cali!
facial recognation cameras becomes a necessaty
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