2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    A very interesting interview by Alessio Rastani. It seems like the "experts" believe it can go down to 30 k or lower and might even bounce back in a few months and surpass previous highs just that fast.




    My personal opinion is that if it goes down to 10 k, then we might not see 100 k this year. Even 50-60 k would be a major event after such a correction.

    Checking the fiat currencies, it seems like the best performing one is the Swiss Franc (still, fiat), but the Euro and USD are threatened by devaluation due to the currently unveiling inflation crisis in the USA and the EU.
    So, Europeans (especially) run to buy Swiss Francs. I also include the investors, the "every day Joe"...

    If Bitcoin and Ethereum correct powerfully, then they will be pushed up by all the inflation-fearing people. Adoption will increase, the price will also climb.

    Just a naive thing that occurred to me: couldn't China, Russia and Iran spend their remaining "piles" of USD on the crypto markets? :D
     
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  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    China probably needs those USD as assets on its CB balance sheet.
     
  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Swiss franc looks good. I don't think I'll be buying any crypto in any big quantity even if there's a big correction. Maybe proxy stocks like coinbase.
     
  4. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    How will crypto react when Putin has enough of NATOs games and marches on Kiev? I expect Xi will reclaim Taiwan around the same time.
     
  5. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Russia is stupid enough to invade Ukraine:
    - both sides would have massive losses and the conflict would drag on for years
    - Ukraine doesn't have important resources, but it has a huge poor population with tremendous social, economic problems: anyone who swallows the Ukraine will end up in a mess
    (and, grabbing this huge country that's in a social-economic mess, Russia will have headaches, it would drag Russia down)
    - this would confirm the "fear of the West" and it would confirm the fact that "Russia is a mad dog bully", meaning that it will put an end to their credibility for 100+ years
    - the Russian economy would be crippled by a major war for decades, possibly it could lead to Russia's collapse on the longer term if other conflicts arise (vs Central Asian, Caucasian countries or China, USA)
    - if Russian has huge losses, then this will lead to internal turmoil within Russia and the government's days would be numbered, the population might even side with the West

    I don't think it would happen.

    As for China to swallow Taiwan:
    - yes, it can do it in 24 hours
    - Taiwan is peanuts for China, yes, they can do it
    - yep!
    - sure, 100% - just see what happened to Tibet

    In fact, I think it is just a question of time WHEN China swallows Taiwan.

    Next on the list: Mongolia, Siberia... maybe later a few -Istan's as well.
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's stupid for Russia to invade Ukraine, but is Putin smart enough not to do that? That's the question. Biden has been insulting and taunting him and if Putin doesn't follow through, he will lose a lot of "credibility" among his supporters. It's like the US deployed a large army in Saudi arabia in 1991, but in the end, pulls out without doing anything.

     
  7. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I am sure they are not stupid enough to invade Ukraine. Biden is more stupid than Putin and overall the US is more stupid (think of all the wars it started from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Iraq... lately even the Afghanistan war was a total failure).

    But, the US might keep pressuring and provoking Russia and they will push them into a conflict. Russia will feel forced to "punch back". And that's when WW 3 starts. Or, even if not WW 3, then a massive war, total disaster in which everybody loses.

    We can only hope that they are not so stupid and that we have peace and nothing happens.

    It is amazing how much was sacrificed and how many people died (in vain) in Afghanistan. And now the US has left a hornet's nest in the back of China, the -Istan's and Iran.

    Anything the US has touched in the last century has turned into sh*t. Inverse-Midas. Show me just one place that has thrived and became super-happy and peaceful after having gone through the "demonocracy export".

    Sometimes it's best if nothing happens.
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't know if Biden is more stupid than Putin, but he is certainly much more ruthless. Look at how he treats his own children and you know he couldn't care less about anyone else. The abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan just shows how ruthless he is, but being ruthless is necessary today. Afghanistan has no more purpose for the Americans, and staying on for even one more day only consumes attention and energy. My feeling is there's a good chance Putin will fall into the trap Biden has laid.
     
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  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Biden wouldn't even qualify for a grocery seller job position. I can't comprehend how such low-IQ people become presidents. EUrocrats are even worse, even dumber. Just look around in the EU parliament. Soviet commies were the same breed.
     
  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Its not Brandon or his controllers, its just a bunch of accidents at the same time happening all at once.
    Unprecedented they say and there is no conspiracy or anything else going on under the surface. Totally natural. Just accidents.
    Oops!
     
  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Massive crisis unraveling in Turkey: Turkish Lira value cut by half, shortage of goods, tremendous price increases daily, sellers limiting the number of goods that they are selling...



    And there's more:



    ...Turkeyzuela? Turkabwe?

    The government's revenue has gone down and so is the purchasing power.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2022
  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Virtual funny (mental) worlds with a mentally-ill concept: in the metaverse you wash your virtual hair with virtual shampoo, which you bought with a virtual currency...

    This is another way to dumb-down people and make them live in a lie. In an entire world of lies. Worse than Facebook.

    And it's all paid for with crypto.

     
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ not sure how these virtual world’s are any different to reading a book, or watching a movie.

    Edit to add: maybe the “virtual” bit means they’re more real?
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Emptier shelves. There are many videos like this. But I also think the demand is lower for certain products, e.g. car parts, accessories. And, because the demand is lower, the scale economies don't really apply - meaning, that less cars are bought, thus less are being made and the cost per unit are higher.

    But somehow no-one seems to think about this: lower demand for flights, cars, apartments means HIGHER cost per unit. This is not because of the economic/currency crisis. But it combines with the currency/economic crises.

    So it is getting worse.

     
  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Intelligent people read books. Mentally ill people live in virtual world without real relationships.
    Unfortunately these virtual worlds are pretty much like social media or p*rn, video games. People will get totally disconnected from reality.

    I think a book is an object, you can put it down. Social media and computer games can become toxic worlds. Many people get addicted.

    But a metaverse is a controlled collective mental illness. People will ruin their lives by disconnecting from reality.

    It just doesn't feel right...
     
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  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    So all of us on this forum conducting virtual conversations with others identified simply by an avatar are mentally ill? Explains a lot I guess.:D

    Maybe those who have been to a stacker’s meet or had a beer F2F with another member are less mentally ill. Or maybe they’re even more so. ;)
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    CB3B2780-345F-4E16-8102-E9E292734799.jpeg
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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  19. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    It is true, but the metaverse would be completely different. It could potentially mean that your entire life becomes a FALSE REALITY.

    And I love living in the hard physical truth. Virtual worlds should be limited to a handful of very low level interactions (e.g. games, messaging, this and other forums...)...

    Otherwise we'll live in a Ray Bradbury-style horror future with an Orwellian control group behind the curtains.
     

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