There's a lot of espionage going on so we might not know the reason behind the politics. They tried to blackmail Biden by shooting videos of his son but it turns out Hunter wasn't even bothered, he even put up his own video on pornhub, and the American left are liberal enough not to mind. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9445105/What-Hunter-Biden-left-tell-memoir-revealed.html
Sorry for being rude. The slavic people are very gullible. No match for the Chinese. They are watching and laughing at the stupidity now. He must be thinking, after the show I put up with the Americans, you really make the move? Read the Romance of the three kingdoms, the one that makes the first move has the highest chance to lose the game.
Russia has essentially already "invaded" and annexed Belarus, as Putin has moved his troops into Lukashenka's land in preparation for entry to Ukraine. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blo...encirclement-as-russian-troops-enter-belarus/ I'm fully expecting the grab of Ukraine (or parts thereof) commencing on first days of February. https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1485566793892704261
Don't for a second think these leaders aren't familiar with Carl von Clausewitz's theories of war (though the Americans provide great examples of not following his theories and getting tied up in sloppy endless wars). There is no half-arsing war, anything but total annihilation is a failure of strategy. That's why Putin's strategy is still quite clever, because he knows that nobody West wants mutually assured destruction. He'll go as far as he can without triggering it. His main concern would be accidental acts of war against the allies.
Sunzi art of war, the highest strategy is not to go to war, but still win. This strategy was used by the Wei state in the Romance of the three kingdoms. The Wu was the strongest state among the three kingdoms but held territory only and won in the end. Correction, the state of wei. https://www.thegreatcoursesdaily.com/three-kingdoms-period/
You can read up on the three kingdoms. Russia is behaving exactly like the demised state of Shu. Shu had the strongest military tactician and generals but lost eventually. The Shu military tactician was the one who authored the 36 strategems. Winning wars doesn't mean you can win an empire, even so the empire will not last for long. e.g. Mongol empire, Soviet Union. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems
Russia will just blatantly lie that the Ukranians shot at them first, then they'll have casus belli i.e., "legitimacy" to shoot back. It's the tactics they used to start the Winter War against Finland, and they can just as easily use it again to declare they were not the aggressors but the victims. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila
Is it more likely that the Americans (using Ukrainian proxies) will actually shoot first then claim that the Russians have lied? Who has the most to gain from a conflict?
Europe has the most to lose in terms of energy (two more months of winter to go) and trade with Russia. NATO cannot give the concessions (no eastward expansion of new member states) and security guarantees that Russia wants, yet they don't want to end up in fractured alliance. https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...roblem-a-613608d1-1222-48fa-91ca-25be2b2d664b The UK Secretary of State's article is instructive and recommended reading. https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...roblem-a-613608d1-1222-48fa-91ca-25be2b2d664b
I doubt the ukranians are interested in fighting russia. As for the the americans, russia is already an empire in permanent decline that no one (mortals at least) can reverse, so there's no need to waste precious resources that can be used against China.
Germany wants to have the cake and eat it. You can't have cheap gas and expect to be the leader of Europe and ensure order (prevent wars). If Germany doesn't want to be the leader, another country will rise up and take over, matter of time. By then, Germany will lose the cake and can't eat it as well. If Russia invades (there's still a chance it won't happen), Germany will be the next biggest loser after Russia as the world will put the blame on the German people for sacrificing Ukranians for cheap gas and profits.
I believe this is just a show of force. It would be madness if it would degenerate into a conflict. Russia is not that stupid, it could backfire tremendously, their economy would be ruined and the conflict could drag on for decades. Forget the illusion of a blitzkrieg. But if it occurs, then gold will shoot above 2,500 $, maybe 3,000+ $. The EU will become a poor place with massive inflation and high fuel costs. The US would be the big winner such a madness. Which, let's hope and pray that doesn't happen.
The weather is suddenly very warm, it's raining in most of Europe I believe? A bit of salt water and hot water, the fields will become swamp after tanks go over them. Ukraine could divert the Dnieper and the fields will become marshland.
Regardless of what happens, Poland should start landmining the border with Belarus. China built the great wall that is 20,000km long to keep out the barbarians. In comparison, the Poland border with Belarus is only 400km.
That would be madness. I am totally against any form of landmine. They remain there almost forever. Even today, explosives from WW II (left-overs) still cause pose danger on agricultural fields, even in people's back yard. The most disgusting invention is probably the landmine. You will never clear them out. And it's usually the most innocent and most unexpected people that become victims who are also the least suspecting. Plus, I don't think that helps. There are mine-clearing devices. Belarus is no match vs. Poland Russia must be mad to invade Poland like in WW I and WW II. I don't think that would happen. Poland is also a NATO country. Ukraine is not. I don't think Russia will dare anything against any NATO country. The EU is a hard nut (don't forget that it includes: Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Spain... major powers). Plus, if Russia attacks the EU, Turkey would also make a move. The entire context is against Russia, they would have a hard time defending themselves. The Ukraine thing is a US provocation rather, they push Russia to act. The west has armed Ukraine and some Russians even fear, that the Ukraine might actually become a threat to them directly. The Ukraine is being used as a pawn, just that for some reason they are too dumb to see. I think Russia is doing its best to "terrify" Ukraine and the west, but I don't think they even dare to attack the Ukraine. China would swallow Taiwan. No doubt. But for Russia, the Ukraine would be too difficult. It's nuts, I don't think they will attack (and I also hope they don't). That part of Europe (Belarus, for example) is quite cold this time of the year. If the weather is cold, the mud is harder, tanks can pass through easier. Rain in Europe doesn't last long, it's never like in Asia. It appears rarely and isn't abundant. Then it dries up. Sometimes cold weather comes after the rain, then everything freezes. And rainy mud then can turn into icy hard chocolate. Regardless, the Russians have rocket launchers, drones, fighter jets...
The US wants to destroy Europe AND Russia AND China and become an even bigger master of the world. Anything harming Europe or Russia harms the other one and vice-versa. Only the US is winning out of any major geopolitical-economical turmoil in Eurasia. Reason why the US will always be FOR war and will NEVER for peace in this region. If the conflict escalates between Russia-Ukraine, the US will feed it from far away, but just standing by and watching from the distance, as the two big rivals of the US (Russia and the EU) sink lower and lower economically. Adversely, China will be impacted negatively if the EU and Russia weaken economically.
Or do what the Kimi’s do well and bring back the traditional theatre of war, e.g executing a select few publicly with anti aircraft artillery. Or maybe test-detonating a mine with Lukashenko‘s head in a pike (even a fake one). Spice things up a bit.. send a clear message! Imagine the toilet paper shelves after that!!!
True, but from the look of it, Belarus is unofficially part of Russia so Belarus-Poland border is in fact the Russian-Polish/NATO border. There are mine clearing devices, and the same can be said of the Great Wall of China, you could climb the wall or demolish part of it. The key is impediment and to prevent free movement to the detriment of the invaders.
