1ST COIN OF NEW SERIES ( "Lunar Skulls" )

I think people do generally wait for the coin to be delivered before on-selling actually.
Again, more than happy to be wrong, I hope it turns out great for all invested.

 

Sorry, but your logic is not making sense..


According to you, there's a "small hype window."

With proofs currently going for $200-$300+ USD, and BU's going for $80+, per current as well as sold listings, each for just 1 ounce of Ag, with spot close to $16, arguably that could be occurring at the moment. Wouldn't people simply start dumping en masse via eBay right now -- regardless of whether they have the coin in hand? You know, to capture that small hype window? Not having the coin in hand obviously isn't stopping people. It's not like there's some sort of "gentlemen's code of ethics" people abide by in these situations. And you have to admit, that's a pretty nice ROI for the original holders, with some getting the proof at $90 & the BU as low as $65 not that long ago.


Or, do you simply think that other people think this will be going higher, which is why we're not seeing a mass dumping, which means it very well could be heading higher via a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating a real-life supply & demand issue -- and which also means we are *not* currently in a "small hype window" that will only be lasting until orders are shipped?


I know you're just trying to look out for others, which is respectable, and I personally wouldn't buy the proof for $600, for example, as apparently somebody once did. However, you also have to flip it around: You may actually be doing some people a disservice if you end up convincing them to sell (or not to buy) in the near-term for $225 -- only to watch it further climb to and maintain for years at, say, $350.

Stranger things have happened. And people are going to do what they want to do. We're all adults, here.


I personally think this one has legs, so to speak. And not just because it's the first of a series which will be lasting for 12 years, during which a lot of things could potentially occur.

It just happens sometimes with certain items, whether it be coins or stocks/shares or collectibles or real estate or what-have-you, whatever the reasons may be. Accept it for what it is. And just be smart about it whether you're a potential buyer or a potential seller.

 

small window, as in lead up to release and lasting a while after (if the coin is a quality piece). You won't see prices stabilize at the ridiculous numbers we have seen recently, no chance.

preorders are not everyones cup of tea, especially when you haven't got actual photos of the coin, that's generally why you get a resurgence in price once a coin is actually released.

Dies off quickly in almost all cases. I own a set of Mongolian wildlife coins, which i regard as the best coin set in existence - their fate has not been any different long term.
Every coin in that set had a small window to make a killing (roof depreciating with each release admittedly), but once it goes you have lost your chance for good. Suckers don't stay hyped forever.


I'm not looking to piss anyone off, but there needs to be another perspective shared in this thread because from what I can gather prices have been artificially pushed up by BS distributors and they've been slowly heading downwards as that reality sets in. You may get a short lived pump up as they reach people hands but that's the point you'd look to sell if your buying to make money.

These are not semi numismatics from a respectable mint, and they will not hold up to time.
Buy some pandas instead, cheaper, safer investment and cuter.

 

Again, why aren't all the original buyers then simply throwing up listing after listing on the 'Bay? Wouldn't they all be taking advantage of those "artificial" prices?

The fact is, very few are not. Why is that? Are they all stupid? Greedy? Foolish?

Or, maybe they're being smart?


And please do provide a link to these prices which have been slowly heading downwards.

No, the "bonkers" guy doesn't count, despite his overly-optimistic ( :lol: ) initial ask of $1K USD -- now down to $350, with as-expectedly no takers at either price, certainly not at this stage of the game.

Or FCC, with their early ask of $750, which nobody expected to be sold at -- and they were correct.

Finally, SM's listing at $600 *sold* was a fluke. Some say perhaps it wasn't even authentic. We'll probably never know.


Bottom line, though, is that *sold* prices are not, in fact, going down, as you claim. Ask prices are just that: ask. And anybody can ask whatever they wish. Doesn't always mean they're going to "get."

And some could potentially argue that those are a dying breed, played-out, boring, on its way to becoming a has-been. Safer? Perhaps not. And just how many times can one produce the same panda design, year after year, before people grow tired of it -- including the older / lower-mintages -- and moving onto something else for a while, maybe even a long while? Dead money?


Perhaps there's a new generation coming into play, a potential up-and-comer, one with 12 fresh years ahead of it, changing a good bit each & every year to keep things interesting and alive with buzz prior to each upcoming release. Something to actually get excited about.

One, I might add, that the large "Apmex crowd" currently has no idea about, unlike these Pandas. Something that would be right up their alley, too, with a good deal of mass appeal.


Anyway, appreciate your opposing perspective. But just as some of us here have already kept in mind from the start that this may be a bubble about to pop, or simply fizzle, if this coin were to be a big bust, those who share your view also need to keep in mind that they could easily be grossly under-estimating this thing's long-term potential, as well.

Obviously you're welcome to continue sharing your insights at anytime. Just don't expect a whole lot of agreement, however.

 

As someone who has been around these types of things in the past I would say Aureus is offering some good advice. The pattern repeats itself on many coins. I remember when the 2010 ATB coins were released there was hype like you cannot believe. Price soared on speculation. It feeds on itself until it just ends and dries up. Trees don't grow to the sky.

 

Along similar lines, does anyone know the sales history of the 2010 Palau Memento Mori Skull Coin Silver Coin, or know how to determine that via eBay? Seems that it has a mintage of only 2500, and there are only two current sellers of the coin on eBay (one of which is son-montuno) . So I am wondering what the original price was, and what range it reached for most of the coins bought/sold.

Cheers,
Luker

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/PALAU-2010-M...World_Coins&hash=item2c75a98341#ht_628wt_1153

 

It's not necessarily true that once a coins' (medals') average price drops that it will remain there. There are many factors to consider when speculating if a coin will increase in value X months/years in time. The following factors are hardly an all inclusive list...many other factors may play into that eventual value:

The design (including type of finish)

Who is promoting / hyping it?

Which mint is producing it and what is their customer service like if quality issues arise with the coin / medal and the series it may be a part of?

How much negativity there is being expressed about the coin / medal?

The quality of a typical strike

The innovative features (if any)

Max proposed mintage vs actual final mintage

The spot price of the precious metal the coin / medal may be comprised of

How much competition that coin / medal has over time in terms of general design?

Is it the first issue of a popular series?

What presentation is that coin / medal being offered (ie., cross over from lower rated TPG to a tier 1 TPG)

What year is the current evaluation being made and does the specific year tie into a design feature or anniversary of the subject of the coin / medal

Has the base of potential buyers increased or decreased since first evaluating the value?

Etc, etc, etc

As others in this forum have pointed out, prices can increase over time even if the spot price of the metal goes south


When I first got into stacking, ATB's had a terrible reputation but this year some or many higher grade ATB's are frequently fetching as much or sometimes even more now than when the spot price of silver was like 60% greater.


That all said, hype and just the right timing can cause an over valuation to occur. Certainly this could be the case for the Lunar Skulls series years down the road but that's yet to be seen because that's a long ways down the road and the first coin of the series has not even been minted yet (as of last reporting).




.

 

we're clearly not going to agree on anything here so there's no point debating.
I genuinely wish you well on these, I just don't see it like you do.

EDIT: just to add, the Chinese will always love pandas - try selling them a lunar skull

 

^ The guy who bought my Lunar Skull on eBay is Chinese in fact!



.

 

The Chinese as a market, you know, the ones who buy real numismatics.

 

Maybe you guys should have a look to the mongolian hedgehogh here on board.
Could give you an idea of pump and dump
Additionally there are a lot of fakes now.
Hopefully skulls will have a graved number matching the coa

 

is this still going on? yawnnn...

 

Its the anticipation.... like a build up to the money shot. Then everyone will either feel let down or will be strutting around like the king of the world.

 

My build ups don't generally last this long. :lol:

 

I believe that is the plan. They should have the serial number on the coin matching the COA

 

yes in the face...

 

I guess you just don't get it. Oh well.




.

 

Who does not get it? As a Chinese myself, I can guarantee you that 99.9% of Chinese numismatic collectors HATE this UGLY design! There is a good reason for why those artistic Chinese coin designers do NOT design this kind of UGLY coins

 

Don't worry.. only another 12 years or so left..

 

The fact that you may or may not be Chinese has no bearing whatsoever on the merits of my comment. Why would it?

If you understood what Aureus' poor arguments are about, then you'd clearly see why it's true that Aureus just doesn't get it.

In post #646, Gatito Bandito explains why Aureus is wrong and not getting it and it's exactly why my comment that Aureus doesn't get it is right on the mark.

I don't have to be Mexican to know that Mexicans by-and-large are not Hungarian coin enthusiasts just like I don't have to be Chinese to know that Aureus has made some terrible arguments in this thread which Gatito Bandito has already proven my point.



.