Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
mmm....shiney! said:
That's probably the most contrarian opinion I've heard all year lol.

Oil to fall under 60 in 2025. Gold down to 2300 by August 2025 ;)
Click to expand...
Speaking in sureties can spell diaster if one embraces expert opinion as experts are many and opinions varied probable predictions hard to make in a world of changing elements. Gold has stagnated at times but in longer term always risen, principles for this are ongoing and strong thats my 100% guarantee And "expert" opinion :D also...BTC will rise and fall this ensured ;) only a limited supply but also able to be fractionalised in miniscule amounts, so is it possible to be diluted to much? Rambling aside stocks are insured and able to be instantly bought and sold with high liquidity theyre future is set in digital stone BTC is still being decided but like anything can also have rug pulled...like people in power insider trading, if,when and how whales decide to op out will they tell retail investors or just sell for maximum profit?
 
mmm....shiney! said:
That's probably the most contrarian opinion I've heard all year lol.

Oil to fall under 60 in 2025. Gold down to 2300 by August 2025 ;)
Click to expand...

Man I had something typed up but I fell asleep lol.. I'm 22 and napping like I'm 70 good LORD.

Yeah I like oil a lot, and I know that is super contrarian. Reality is, being the opinion that opposes the most widely thought belief generally ends up profitable. Like anything, markets rerate back to equilibrium or to inefficiencies - oil has one large one I can think of... Also, when you see this prolonged contractions in ranges it is a certainty that sooner or later (i.e., definitely within this year coming) some major shift will occur that leads to large expansion in the oil price, it's not just going to trade sideways forever. Where it has been contracting and accumulated is what is interesting to me, and how long it has been...

If oil closes a monthly candle below 67.45 then it would negate my trade idea. So far so good though.
 
IPDA said:
Also, when you see this prolonged contractions in ranges it is a certainty that sooner or later (i.e., definitely within this year coming) some major shift will occur that leads to large expansion in the oil price
Click to expand...

I'll just leave this chart here:

USOIL_2024-12-30_16-40-14.png
 
Last edited:
Real $ Return said:
BTC is still being decided but like anything can also have rug pulled...like people in power insider trading, if,when and how whales decide to op out will they tell retail investors or just sell for maximum profit?
Click to expand...

BTC can't be rug-pulled because it is decentralised, but it can suffer major downturns just like every other asset class.
 
5564r2.jpg
 
mmm....shiney! said:
That's probably the most contrarian opinion I've heard all year lol.

Oil to fall under 60 in 2025. Gold down to 2300 by August 2025 ;)
Click to expand...

And let me guess, Bitcoin to one quadrillion dollars... :D:D jk jk

Definitely could be wrong myself, but I've put my money where my mouth is, I have a long @ 72.25 on oil. Using it as a position trade with energy stocks. It is a guarantee we will see a large expansion this year coming, up or down.

If I'm right, that would probably mean the economy is going to tank. High inflation, slow economic performance, with LOW interest rates (i.e., stagflation). Not a good mix. Honestly a lot of the stock valuations remind me a lot of the 2000 dot-com bubble, I wasn't even born yet but from what I've read about it it sounds pretty similar to now. I'm playing it careful, but I am really excited for 2025 too.
 
IPDA said:
And let me guess, Bitcoin to one quadrillion dollars... :D:D jk jk
Click to expand...

At this stage, at least 182K. Based on guesswork.

IPDA said:
If I'm right, that would probably mean the economy is going to tank. High inflation, slow economic performance, with LOW interest rates (i.e., stagflation).
Click to expand...

Mmmmm? A stagflationary scenario would have high inflation, low growth and low liquidity due to tight credit conditions. But rates would also be high in order to combat inflationary pressure. A recessionary scenario is more along the lines you are describing where low rates together with low liquidity and growth are the order of the day. Recent recessions have been bearish for crude. :eek:

IPDA said:
Honestly a lot of the stock valuations remind me a lot of the 2000 dot-com bubble, I wasn't even born yet but from what I've read about it it sounds pretty similar to now.
Click to expand...

Interesting you should say that. I was listening to a podcast this morning and the two guys who were guests on it think that now looks a lot like the 1990's. Pundits have been been saying that the market reminds them of the dot-com bubble ever since the dot-com bubble. Lol.

I wonder what the bears were reminded of before the dot-com bubble? Tulips? :p
 
mmm....shiney! said:
At this stage, at least 182K. Based on guesswork.



Mmmmm? A stagflationary scenario would have high inflation, low growth and low liquidity due to tight credit conditions. But rates would also be high in order to combat inflationary pressure. A recessionary scenario is more along the lines you are describing where low rates together with low liquidity and growth are the order of the day. Recent recessions have been bearish for crude. :eek:



Interesting you should say that. I was listening to a podcast this morning and the two guys who were guests on it think that now looks a lot like the 1990's. Pundits have been been saying that the market reminds them of the dot-com bubble ever since the dot-com bubble. Lol.

I wonder what the bears were reminded of before the dot-com bubble? Tulips? :p
Click to expand...


Oh and I should mention my position in the oil futures is on Brent, not WTI. So it IS in the money not at a loss right now lol.

All I know is that the financial ratios of some of the largest companies in the world right now is unsustainable. Valuations must come down sooner or later to revert to their mean. Apple shares at 40.1 P/E ratio is unheard of, the economy isn't doing that great to be forward looking and saying "Yeah, for every $1 of profit earned in Apple, I'm willing to pay $40.1". A lot of the AI arms of the businesses aren't actually earning a profit yet, very similar to the dot-com bubble with many businesses. If the economy was doing so great, you wouldn't have people resorting to using record amounts of credit and having nearly no savings. This is factual data, if the economy was good it would be the other way around.

They can't raise rates too much, I don't think it was a coincidence that during the peak of the rate hikes you saw numerous banks collapse lol. The way I look at it, is that they're trapped between being neutral or cutting. They can't raise rates too much otherwise interest on their debt would be the number 1 expenditure.

Rates don't necessarily need to be high in stagflation, that's not what happened in the 1970s.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Is 67.45 your stop-loss?

@IPDA, have a listen to this guy's videos and see how much of what he says gels with your thinking or not.

Click to expand...

Yeah some interesting takes apart from the Mexican ramble LOL, seems like a lovely place from what he describes. Seasonality is definitely something I look at as well, which supports oil in the first quarter fosure.
 
IPDA said:
All I know is that the financial ratios of some of the largest companies in the world right now is unsustainable. Valuations must come down sooner or later to revert to their mean. Apple shares at 40.1 P/E ratio is unheard of, the economy isn't doing that great to be forward looking and saying "Yeah, for every $1 of profit earned in Apple, I'm willing to pay $40.1". A lot of the AI arms of the businesses aren't actually earning a profit yet, very similar to the dot-com bubble with many businesses.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure PE ratios are valid any more.

At best you can only compare ratios within a sector and you certainly can't make a comparison with historical ratios as there are too many variables that change over time.

IPDA said:
If the economy was doing so great, you wouldn't have people resorting to using record amounts of credit and having nearly no savings. This is factual data, if the economy was good it would be the other way around.
Click to expand...

Nah. All money in the private sector is a form of credit.

1. Credit drives economic growth. It's not a measure of how poorly an economy is doing. Where it originates is the key metric.

2. Savings rates (accumulated government issued credit) jumped during Covid, it's a measure of future economic uncertainty.

3. During periods of high inflation it makes sense not to accumulate credit (save) as purchasing power declines going forward.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top