Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Maybe we will see 9k or even 3k again?
This next leg lower in the markets will probably pull btc down past 17 easily.
Thats a pretty stiff resistance area too!
 
Does BTC respect any rule at all? It's so decentralized it's capable of any movement at any time. It might as well go to zero. That's the strongest possibility and it's highest potential.

But it might also decide to shoot up to 100 k until New Year's Eve.

I think we'll see 10-11 k. If it goes lower than 10 k, then that's not a correction. That's destruction. Good luck believing in BTC if it sinks below 10 k.
 
'If it goes lower than 10 k, then that's not a correction. That's destruction.'
Then all the fancy ASICs will become fishing sinkers. A lot of rich guys will have egg on their faces. Then everyone will, as in the beginning, be able to mine Bitcoin on their laptops.

'It might as well go to zero.'
Most crypto trading is still 'against' Bitcoin. That's utility. Bitcoin has other utility. So although it is on the 'perma-wane,' 'going to zero' and 'destruction' is hyperbole.
 
The major indices have formed head and shoulders so as they eventually sink so to might btc. Who really knows tho. Its all probabilities and all that
 
inmizu said:
'If it goes lower than 10 k, then that's not a correction. That's destruction.'
Then all the fancy ASICs will become fishing sinkers. A lot of rich guys will have egg on their faces. Then everyone will, as in the beginning, be able to mine Bitcoin on their laptops.

'It might as well go to zero.'
Most crypto trading is still 'against' Bitcoin. That's utility. Bitcoin has other utility. So although it is on the 'perma-wane,' 'going to zero' and 'destruction' is hyperbole.
Click to expand...

It is more difficult to mine Bitcoin now than 10 years ago. It will not be easier to mine once its price goes down. In fact, it will be more difficult and more expensive to mine and not worth doing so, if its price will go too low.

If "rich guys will have egg on their faces", then people will fry eggs on their faces, just like one can fry eggs on top of a car in the hot desert. Permabull wishful thinker Michael Saylor will be a major egg-fryer face.

ASICs will become fish sinkers, but it will only accelerate overfishing :D They should rather recycle them and turn them into something more useful: like hardware wallets for all that crypto hovering in the digital space! :D

In my opinion, cryptos will simply "hover" at lower prices for a while. If currencies keep going down the drain and if the crisis will amplify, then cryptos will climb again. Keep your eyes on that log arrhythmic growth graph:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

I think it will land somewhere on the 9-11 k range and then it'll be set on a ride all the way up to 60-100-200 k $. (just check the previous lows vs the previous highs... all those lows were great buying opportunities)
 
Indices bouncing down off the head and shoulders neckline. Probably just an accident.
Will it retest the neck later on?

Btc down 10%
 
Good thread over at crypto craft examining the potential and realised impact of the release of empirical data.

A telling quote:

The higher than expected data was after a stronger than expected NFP number earlier this month. This is all the markets needed. Barring any unforeseen event, the data-dependent Fed will continue to be aggressive with rate hikes. The US dollar rallied across the board and anything priced in dollars (bitcoin, gold, crude, etc) tanked. Absolutely tanked. It's been a while since we've seen a move of this magnitude. As long as the Fed continues to signal their decisions will be based on data, we could see more of these big moves on data in the months to come.
Click to expand...

https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/1171385-high-impact-events-trading-bitcoin?page=2

You could substitute gold for BTC in the analysis if crypto is not your thing. Then again if crypto's not your thing you're probably not reading this thread. Too bad for you. :D

Edit to add: the macro headwinds are still blowing strongly. ;)
 
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'It is more difficult to mine Bitcoin now than 10 years ago. It will not be easier to mine once its price goes down. In fact, it will be more difficult and more expensive to mine . . . '

I've been called out! Anyone wanna take a side on this debate before reading what's below?

'As mining difficulty rose so did the need for better, more dedicated hardware.'
https://thenextweb.com/news/a-brief-history-of-bitcoin-mining-hardware

'The most likely reason for new miners joining the highly competitive space is because of bitcoin’s extreme price potential.'

'On May 22, 2010, computer programmer Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas. The pizzas were worth around $25. According to cryptocurrency data provider Coin Metrics, bitcoin market price then appreciated in July to around 8 cents. By the time the bitcoin price reached 10 cents in October 2010, the first mining device leveraging graphics processing units (GPUs) was developed.'
https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2020/04/26/the-rise-of-asics-a-step-by-step-history-of-bitcoin-mining/

Readers, my background in this technical stuff is shite. But anyone who's been crypto-geekin' 7 days a week since May, 2013 knows what 'hash' is.

So, when Bitcoin was 8 cents per, GPUs and ASICs didn't exist. GPUs and ASICs were invented as hash rates -- mining difficulty -- rose. That is, hash rate = mining difficulty = $$

And it has been explained to muggins that if Bitcoin's price crashed back again to, say, 8 cents, the mining difficulty would likewise crash, and you wouldn't need GPUs and ASICs to successfully mine. You'd be able to mine again on laptops.

So: 'It is more difficult to mine Bitcoin now than 10 years ago.' -- correct.
And: 'It will not be easier to mine once its price goes down.' -- incorrect.

sic probo
 
EventsTrader has updated his "High Impact Events Thread" over at https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/1171385-high-impact-events-trading-bitcoin?page=2 and gives emphasis to the FOMC dot plot. Here's June's:

Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 5.42.16 pm.png
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf

He says that we should scrutinise any changes to the dot plot after tonight's meeting. It will be available here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm

Markets are expecting and have probably priced in a 75 bps rise, he argues that Powell's tone in the press conference and the dot plot will determine what prices are going to do after the meeting. This will likely also happen with the gold price, which I know everyone reading this is also interested in. ;)
 
I lost the count of QE's, QT's and "hikes"... the USD is running wild like a naked country boy across the grain field on a warm August Sunday afternoon... it's standing up! (the Dollar) It's stronger are harder than decades ago.
But of course this happens on the back of the Europe taking a dive...

With higher and higher interest rates, people will buy country bonds, will keep their money at the banks for yields. This is not good for gold or Bitcoin.
I think the gold down, Bitcoin down, Russian helicopters down... trend will continue for a while.
 
As expected Powell's hawkish tones and the SEP weighed on the BTC price, the initial fall following the rate announcement, spike and then post press conference fall was expected by traders. Committee members have increased their expectations of another 75 - 100 bps rise before the year is out - and with only 2 meetings left in the FOMC calendar.

Screen Shot 2022-09-22 at 7.39.49 am.png
 
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