This time its different. Silver to $40+

IMO I don't see silver over $40 in the near term. As lock-downs continue and deflationary fears build later this year I think its more likely to see a pullback in price of PMs, with gold pulling further back then silver in % terms. Very good buying opportunity coming up end of 2020! Although stand to be corrected.
 
crewy said:
IMO I don't see silver over $40 in the near term. As lock-downs continue and deflationary fears build later this year I think its more likely to see a pullback in price of PMs, with gold pulling further back then silver in % terms. Very good buying opportunity coming up end of 2020! Although stand to be corrected.
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Edit to add: I don't see silver hitting $40 in the near term either and agree there could be excellent buying opportunity ahead. Although, there are a lot of threats to the global economy and higher inflation is likely to be guaranteed. What is most exciting is the 10+ year Outlook.

However, we could be looking back in the not too distant future at these prices and seeing the potential buying opportunity today.
In the article I'm writing, I have done a deep dive into the global supply and reserves of the primary miners. But what is more exciting, is the supply of the primary, lead, gold, zinc and copper miners where the bulk of the silver mine production comes from. 40% of the silver mine supply comes from lead and zinc mines, and Let me tell you this, the 10 year outlook on silver has never looked better! We don't have a lot of in ground silver reserves and are set to reach peak zinc/lead & copper sooner than I thought. There is mounting evidence to suggest we have already reached peak gold. Less mine production from all of these metals is set to reduce mine production of silver on a byproduct/co-product basis (byproduct mining equates to approx 70% of annual mine supply). 12 of the top 15 primary silver mines are set to deplete within the next 6-8 years. I have links to the only scientific peer reviewed study published on the mine life of the primary miners (2018), along with other analysis suggesting nearly identical outcomes. You can calculate the reserves of each mine and weigh it against annual production to get a rough idea of mine lifespan anyway.

As I've said previously, the only thing I can see preventing the silver price from exploding is a massive reduction in consumption or massive increase in supply. From my analysis, an increase in supply is extremely unlikely and a reduction of consumption is only likely If we have a reduction in population.

I have explored the scrap metal supply potential and unconventional mine supply e.g deep seabed mining and asteroid mining in enough detail to conclude they are unlikely threats to Silvers potential at this stage.
 
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I'll add that acknowledgment of silver being a strategic metal may take hold and we may even see restrictions of investment grade Bullion ownership being adopted globally. I believe China and Russia already view silver as being a strategic metal and have begun stockpiling accordingly. This actually ties in with the lifting of the ban for Chinese citizens to be able to buy and own gold and silver. This happened in 2010. I know the ban was initially placed in 2002 and haven't research further back than that. Is it possible that China is increasing their above ground reserves by allowing their citizens to buy gold and silver? Think about it. They can discretely increase their reserves via citizen ownership while flying under the radar and not exposing their government acquisitions, only to introduce another ban in the future and add it to the stockpiles. Imagine if the tech companies catch wind and decide it's necessary to stockpile.

Another thing I touch on is the military demand for silver and downright dependency on the metal to have an operationally advanced military power. Currently there are no recorded defence reserves of silver that I've uncovered. Silver is a sleeping giant! I believe One of the greatest opportunities lay before us all today when assessing Silver's long-term potential via market fundamentals.

Now add in economics/inflationary threats and investor demand, current and potenial. The upside outweighs the downside by 100:1 IMO.
 
Any thing is possible in this small silver market. I like to see consolidate above This major 21.50-22 Level. to target 26-28 and 34-35next . Just a technical point of view.
 
Tokyo said:
Any thing is possible in this small silver market. I like to see consolidate above This major 21.50-22 Level. to target 26-28 and 34-35next . Just a technical point of view.
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I'm all for technical analysis. The support and resistance levels are important psychological markers and can be quite revealing in that regard. I always appreciate your posts and value the perspective and info you share.
 
It will be interesting also to watch what the current economic crisis does to the gold-silver ratio as it unfolds.
 
new COT report : net position increased from 37k to 43k On Paper contact.
institution is bullish but real game starts above $22 ( I be watching volume )
 
Closing above $35 (61.8%) Would open my ideas for $80 As next reasonable Fibonacci expansion target But we can chat about that when it happens.
Not a specialist but silver sterilization might open up more demand
 
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When I was doing some further investigation into market manipulation, the introduction of COMEX position limits became of interest. Bullion banks like JPM are exempt from position limits via the "bona fide hedge exemption" scheme. What I found most interesting is any entities with exemptions were still limited to their position size by the amount of physical silver they held. This may explain the allegations of JPM acquiring physical silver to increase the quantity of shorts on the COMEX. I believe JPM is also the custodian of SLV holdings and this may allow JPM more leverage when placing such positions.

I really hope we begin to see a downward movement toward 76:1 and below. Silver has been so grossly undervalued compared to gold considering we have an 9:1 mining ratio at current (I think 8.8:1). BRING ON $35 SILVER!!! Let the games begin!
 
Tokyo said:
Closing above $35 (61.8%) Would open my ideas for $80 As next reasonable Fibonacci expansion target But we can chat about that when it happens.
Not a specialist but silver sterilization might open up more demand
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Unfortunately the quantities of Nano-silver and Ionic silver are so small that it wouldn't have a large impact on annual consumption. To give you an idea, I make my own nano silver with a generator at home. I have two silver rods that weigh approx 15 grams together. I have made 100's of litres of nano silver and I cannot see a reduction in the rod size yet.

The silver particle size is between 5-12Nm. To put this into scale, the width of a DNA strand is about 2nm. Silver is quite often used as plating for surgical equipment and wound bandages/dressing. I don't think there is an official recording of the demand from the medical industry on the silver institutes yearly surveys. That might change in the future though.
 
It's Tuesday so its time to post the running weekly price change.
June 23 approx 11am $17.86
June 30 approx 9am $17.86
July 7 approx 9am $18.30
July 14 approx 9am $19.11
July 21 approx 9am $19.91

And I would add that the first price target identified $19.70 which was the 2019 high is now resistance. It took just 1 month to get there without any significant retracement. The next target is the 2016 high at $21.16
 
So the Eurozone announces what amounts to a trillion or so of printing and Silver hits new highs. If there was any doubt that silver is still acting as a store of value that was put to rest today. Silver @20.38 up 2.4% in a few hours.
 
It comes down so sharply though and catches most by surprise. $21 is a major resistance level. We'll see what happens..

There's still possibility to meet market demand both with the physical metal and ETFs. If Silver's kept under $21 it could easily be managed by a few rapid swings down. Believe me, I want it to go UP. I'm primed and READY TO GO GO GO!! But until transparent silver holdings reduce significantly and the deficits between supply and demand widen, I'm not holding my breath. Anything can happen though and silver has a lot of catching up to do to Gold. Buying around these levels has greater risk than waiting for it to break through $21 and retest. That's my 2 cents on the situation anyway.
 
^^ The volatility of silver is what makes it so good to make money on.
Buying it at the right time and selling it at the right time makes good money. It is so predicable
It always go up and it always goes back down again. Its great.
People think its an easy beginners investment, it isnt, as you can get burnt very hard on it and allot of people get caught up on fomo.
Almost 20 years of stacking it and trading it, i see people make that same mistake over and over again and are constantly chasing their tail, never are they in profit as they buy high when they should be selling.
 
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Jason1 said:
^^ The volatility of silver is what makes it so good to make money on.
Buying it at the right time and selling it at the right time makes good money. It is so predicable
It always go up and it always goes back down again. Its great.
People think its an easy beginners investment, it isnt, as you can get burnt very hard on it and allot of people get caught up on fomo.
Almost 20 years of stacking it and trading it, i see people make that same mistake over and over again and are constantly chasing their tail, never are they in profit as they buy high when they should be selling.
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I see where you're coming from completely, but "this time is different" lol.
But seriously, it is. All the way up until 2014 the silver institute had "government sales" listed on their supply chart. Almost every year from 2014 back to 1970 the silver survey has recorded additional supply, some years in excess of 70Mozs. The sales were used to meet physical demand when the markets were in deficit.
I do agree that silver is volatile and the rapid market swings can and have created great opportunities for some, but I think the historical price action and market behaviours have less bearing on silver today than they did previously. I'm still a sceptic when it comes to where the price may go in the short term and have personally only been buying collector pieces for my own satisfaction to keep up with my obsession with PM's.

So on one side I agree with you but on another I think the potential is there to push silver into triple digits in this environment. Where she stops? Nobody knows.

Long-term I am SO F@#KING BULLISH it's not funny. $500 silver is beyond possible, it's even likely in my view. That's at today's $$ purchasing power too, without excessive inflation or safe haven status.

I believe Supply is going to hit a wall relative to demand. Even if demand remains stagnant, the supply side of the market is going to put a lot of pressure on Silver. I foresee a time where the collective need to acquire silver from industrial players leads to a massive inflation of Silver's value. Who knows? This could be the beginning of something most wish for but never really believed it would happen. TO DA MOON! :D:D:D
 
@Jason1 (I thought you was only ere for da bitches) you would remember the ride from 2009 to mid 2011. Huge volatility but a very clear direction. Long periods without retracement. Then as now you would be very brave to hold a short position. Then as now it was central bank liquidity and currency debasement that kicked off the rally. I love what STKR writes about this can be the narrative as the Silver story goes main stream but bigger players look to stores of value when the printing presses start. I said in the title of this thread “this time it’s different” to be provocative, but actually this time it’s the same as 2010. It’s always the same. Tonight Bloomberg has picked up the silver story but you won’t be reading about silver in your local newspaper for a while yet. Unfortunately the opportunity to buy under $18 is now gone.
 
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