This time its different. Silver to $40+
- Thread starter President Trump
- Start date
I feel the same about cryptos but I still put $150 on the table.
I really dont see any value in that stuff but it's just speculative for me and a way to make a few bucks here and there.
Even if I lost it all I've already more than covered my losses in metals so no sweat. It's nothing more than a game for me and just chump change to gamble with.
I really dont see any value in that stuff but it's just speculative for me and a way to make a few bucks here and there.
Even if I lost it all I've already more than covered my losses in metals so no sweat. It's nothing more than a game for me and just chump change to gamble with.
As metals go up almost daily and the value of the dollar is deflating (real world, not paper manipulated world) I'm reminded I should have bought silver with it haha.
Somehow I think you are misinterpreting my post about bitcoin. In respect of Silver, it's going past USD40 this time (in my opinion) like I said in the title when I started this thread. I believe the demand side alone is enough to cause that to happen given the money printing. But even if you believe Silver has lost its status as PM store of wealth (and I don't believe that), the supply side reasons eg given by STKR should eventually get silver there.
Hello $19 Silver is your friend $20 silver home. Bbrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
It will be flawed by one single notion - you believe price is directly underpinned by production costs, and not derived by supply and demand.
Last edited:
It interests me to know what you read and how you have chosen to interpret what I have written. I had outlined above that the ongoing environment of year-on-year deficits between mining SUPPLY vs global DEMAND makes the cost of production relevant.
What I find unfortunate, is that you chose to challenge the most irrelevant portion of my post where I was stating that I intend to create a thread to share my views, analysis and sources in more depth and detail.
Knowing that you are, in many ways, an intelligent and reasonably educated individual, I'm inclined to believe that the true intentions behind your mildly provocative comment was to simply flex your position as a bona fide
Probably this statement:
Global AISC has been falling for a few years, while at the same time global silver supplies have been consistently in supply/demand surplus. There is always some +ve correlation coefficient between AISC and silver price, no matter how small that is.
These current factors wouldn't make a good investment case for any commodity, no matter what it was.
Definitely provocative - I like to delve deeper where I see data that can be disputed... it tends to result in me learning something new.
My point with AISC have been specifically focused on the primary miners. You can have a supply surplus each year and still have a critical bottom in the silver price for the primary miners. They do and will withhold selling a portion of their production when price moves "Too low".
Other factors to consider are the "coproduct" metals. This is something I mentioned when talking about AISC of primary miners.
No one metric should be used to determine when silver is undervalued. You specially narrow your sights in on the AISC. But from what I understand, when silver drops below $15USD, I start to pay attention. I believe the AISC are important but only when you consider the bigger picture.
The primary miners represent <30% of global mine supply, and about 23% of total global supply, so I'd suggest the focus on this factor misrepresents the bigger picture.
I don't believe this to be true, and industry insiders like Bron have also disputed you on this point in the recent past.
Actually, on the contrary - this is your focus. That is what I pointed out above in post #67.
My view is that AISC has nothing to do with price - I am a believer in the supply/demand price balance.
Well industry insiders like Keith Neumeyer has openly stated this on multiple occasions.
No, I'm not missing the bigger picture, it is you who's missing the bigger picture. I have outlined my position in enough detail. You have just chosen to cherry pick the AISC argument and go to town. I have openly stated my 10-40 year stance and reasons for buying. From that perspective, I have also explained why I have personally chosen to use the AISC of the primary miners as an entry point for myself. You say investment, I say savings and retirement plan with opportunity along the way. My intentions were wealth protection, wealth preservation and future potential. PMs tick all these boxes for me and silver was the path I chose.
Additionally, the reason I focus on the primary miners is because they're the ones sitting on the largest reserves. They're the ones who will specifically target silver when the deficit between mine supply and global demand widens, and I believe it will. It only takes a small amount of investor interest and an miniscule amount of financial investment to take silver to new heights.
There are threats to my analysis and we have discussed this previously. A gross reduction in consumption and a gross increase in supply. I think scrap metal refining could be the Achilles heel of a future global supply glut. I just don't foresee this happening until the price climbs significantly and stabilises.
There is much more to my overall analysis of the market. AISC, just like the price ratio between silver and gold, the mining ratio, the amount of known reserves, the amount of new discoveries, the dollar to silver ratio, the lifespan of existing mines, ore grade declines, increasing consumption, cost of production, chart data, financial environment, threats to the global economy, currency strength and even the possibility of entering into a new Monetary paradigm and a total financial collapse. I consider as much as I can to make an informed and calculated decision that meets my needs.
As I said in my previous post, I intend to write an article or create a thread or video outlining all of what I understand in greater detail. I'm not trying to sell you the silver story, Mr Mad. I know your position on Silver. I'm trying to share my views, understanding and reasons for why I buy and when.
SouthCoastSilver
Active Member
I feel like I owe you money after reading your in depth posts, much appreciated, a genuine wealth of knowledge
Honestly, I have some VERY exciting things to share. I don't want to get too ahead of myself, but I can't help but now laugh at the proposed $40 silver price. If people can perceive holding the metal for 10-15 years, I believe we will see such an explosion in price that we will look back on this time in disbelief with how low the silver price is/was. This is without factoring in an increase in demand, whether it be industry, jewellery or investment.
That "Watch this space" comment was just me using this thread to test what I can and can't upload to the forum, and how the screenshots I've taken look when uploaded. I'm have about 8 pages of information and data so far and I am only 30% finished. I'll also have a bunch of videos and will provide links to all sources. I'm really excited to be able to share this with everyone.
I might post the majority of my analysis in the coming weeks and just add on to it. I have a lot of work ahead of me writing everything up, but the majority of the research has been done and it's JUICY. I always knew there was a very strong case for holding silver, I just never knew it was this good.
Juicy is good. Creamy is questionable
Yes we will all laugh at the fact we thought silver at 19 was exciting haha.
Yes we will all laugh at the fact we thought silver at 19 was exciting haha.
Put some extra cream in that mfkr!
I missed my Tuesday post yesterday but the progress so far is:
June 23 approx 11am 1786
June 30 approx 9am 1786
July 7 approx 9am 1830
July 14 approx 9am 1911
Looking at the price only once a week like this smooths out the noise. Right now we are at 1929
The 2019 high is around 1970 and the July 2016 high is around 2120.
Both are within reach, although I would not expect the July 2016 number to be reached without a pullback first.
June 23 approx 11am 1786
June 30 approx 9am 1786
July 7 approx 9am 1830
July 14 approx 9am 1911
Looking at the price only once a week like this smooths out the noise. Right now we are at 1929
The 2019 high is around 1970 and the July 2016 high is around 2120.
Both are within reach, although I would not expect the July 2016 number to be reached without a pullback first.
crewy
Active Member
Thanks STKR for the insight. Do you put much weight into price manipulation and/or price discovery interference claims long term? IE differences in paper vs physical prices, concentrated long/short ETF positions, money printing being funnelled into certain asset classes etc.
Or would you expect the fundamentals are strong enough to overcome these over your 10+ year investment timeframe mentioned?
Or would you expect the fundamentals are strong enough to overcome these over your 10+ year investment timeframe mentioned?
I've collected a whole range of information relating to manipulation, however, it is irrelevant when observing the long-term supply and demand fundamentals. The physical metal is what is in demand from industry and investment grade physical Bullion demand cannot be fulfilled by empty paper promises...at least not for the majority.
So yes, I believe the fundamentals are absolutely strong enough to overcome any influence of price discovery and controls via the COMEX.
What's fascinating to me is that China and Russia appear to be the very few countries who understand the strategic element to silver. Tech companies like Samsung (Keith Neumeyer speaks about this aspect often) have been making enquiries to obtain silver directly from mining companies. It would appear certain tech companies are aware of how reliant they are on silver and their dependency on a consistent and sustained supply. We may even see tech companies buying silver mines in the not too distant future. More on this later.
As for excessive currency creation, I think most people understand the inflationary aspect of currency creation. I will briefly touch this area in my article, but it's certainly not my primary focus. What is worth mentioning, is in the current situation with price setting on the comex, there is only so low they can influence the price for any length of time. As I've mentioned in the previous posts, the AISC of the primary miners have appeared to be a decisive factor in setting a bottom in the silver price. Inflation directly impacts the cost of (everything) production for obvious reasons - higher costs of materials, machinery and labour = higher mining costs (typically). There's more to this, such as, energy costs (price of oil), advancements in mining technologies resulting in reduced cost of production, mine location (regulation, proximity to refineries, environmental red tape), mine life and upcoming rehabilitation costs, ore grade declines etc etc etc.
Silver is grossly undervalued. So many people look at the charts and analyse future price levels going into 2030 and beyond without observing the supply and demand fundamentals in depth. Chart analysis is merely a short-term insight into the paper aspect of the metal and has little bearing on price discovery in the environment of dwindling mine supply and increasing demand.
Honestly, a massively sustained reduction in consumption - maybe due to a gross reduction in population? - is the only thing I can see pulling the pin on the moonshot narrative over 10+ years. This shouldn't be ruled out either! The UN has openly emphasised the importance of their "sustainability" or "sustainable development" programs outlined in UN Agenda 21 and 2030. I'm going very far afield here, but population reduction is evidently on the cards. The question is how much and over what timeline? I personally think the UN Agenda 21 and 2030 is quite telling from a conspiratorial view point. However, this is best reserved for individual analysis and speculation.
It just goes to show how far reaching such an analysis can get. I only intended to focus on the main drivers and a strong assessment of the supply and demand situation.
I'm currently working on potential supply from non-conventional mining and scrap metal refining. I've reached the conclusion that scrap metal refining isn't as big of a threat as I initially thought. I will have an entire segment on that.
I'm still in awe from what I have learnt about mine supply looking ahead into 2030 and beyond. I'm so F@#KING EXCITED to be able to share it with you all.
I would like to add onto this:
Because scrap metal refining has been critical in filling the void between annual mine supply and annual consumption, the bottom of the silver price is also greatly influenced by scrap metal refining. As reported by the silver institute in their 2019 silver survey, refining companies were stockpiling their scrap metal in hopes of higher prices in the midst of the 2018 lows in the silver price. There is a direct correlation between higher silver prices and higher scrap metal supply, but the opposite is also true, and sustained lows in the price can and will lead to a broadening of the deficit between global supply and global demand. Conveniently, the AISC metric I use for the primary miners ($15USD) also appears to be an equivalent pinch point in the price for the scrap metal refiners. Of course, USD strength and currency exchange is an important factor to consider in this assessment, and will differ from country to country. This is where chart analysis can become quite useful when trying to understand the forces which create a bottom in the spot price and the $$ value that may represent.