You sold all your silver, what now?

S

spets1

New Member
Hey guys, I'm just thinking about the exit strategies or even signs when to do it as well.

I think that major price factor will be the current development of silver mines over the world and in Australia.
How does one go about finding information about silver mines opening/closing and how much reserve they have under ground?
We now know that there is silver shortage of physical(fact?). So the reason silver price will crash is when we have silver supply restored and silver is not so scarce, right?


Another big question for me if silver does fail, what do you buy instead.

Lets say you are lucky one and sold your silver right at the moment where the market started to fall.

You now have bunch of fiat in your hands.
What do you buy? I cant see anything right now.

Hold the cash? suicide?
Chinese Yuan, maybe?
Gold? Gold = money.
Some other PM's or stocks of silver/gold mining companies?

I think Gold would probably be best bet. Another alternative is Chinese Yuan? It's not going down is it?
So many factors to consider.
 
Yuan/Renminbi is estimated to be as much as 35% undervalued according to some (more believeable) reports I've read. But it's been that way for a long time, and I suspect if ever it corrects it won't stay that way for very long (a high yuan, makes Chinese exports unfavourable and probably would see their currency/country in serious trouble).

But cash has never made a worthwhile return on investment... the 3 main investment vehicles that trade in cycles are;

Stocks, real estate and commodities (incl PM's).

Stocks have been on a downward slope for ages
We're coming off a real estate bubble
Commodities are beginning to soar

Trading out your silver for gold (or any other commodity) won't make sense when commodities as a whole are going out of fashion, It'll be time to move into another asset class all together. Which one is anyone's guess, but I suspect the flogging real estate investors are getting in the US and Europe won't be forgotten in a hurry, leaving the final asset class, stocks. It's cyclical through history.

Take a look at vehicle trends. One generation will go through a 4WD phase. Their kids will want to distance themselves from their parents and buy coupe's and sports cars, but the kids of that 2nd generation will be tired of sportscars and yearn for something different...like 4wd's. The market (people) is that predictable.
 
spets, it is good to plan ahead, but until several events occur, we will just be making guesses as to what would be the next investment. My expectation is that I would trade my pms for a homestead and energy investments. I would not concern my self with the amount of silver mines, as I believe silver mines (those where the majority of the revenue is silver) only account for about 30% of silver production. Silver production is increasing and probably will for the next few years. But we do not know how much silver is being consumed each year. If you read the annual reports, you will not see anything that would lead you to believe that more silver is being consumed than is being mined. And yet, billions of ounces of silver have left government stockpiles. Is it coincidence that after the government stockpiles of silver disappeared, the price of silver began to rise?

Will the US/World suffer hyperinflation? Will nations grabbing for valuable minerals go to war? Many, many events could occur and they could change which investments will be the best ones after pms top. For example, when the dow-gold ratio goes to around 1-1 or my prediction of .65-1, large multinational corporations like Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, etc., will probably be paying 6-8% dividends and the US stock market will probably be at a bottom area. But what if the US breaks apart?

Right now, I am content that I have taken the investment actions that I believe will best protect myself for the future. I expect to hold the pm investments (80-85% of my portfolio) for several years. And I expect that I will be greatly surprised at what investment opportunities are available when I decide to reallocating my investment portfolio. So, in other words, I have no clue what is going to happen. :)
 
You can invest in just about anything stocks, property, commodities, bonds, cash (term deposit type), CFD's, 2 flies up a wall and just about anything else. I would say:
1. Aust property wayyyyy over bought;
2. Stocks - opportunity in the right ones of course, still hurting from the sell-off;
3. Commodities - could you really go wrong with oil ? Unless along comes an electric car.....
4. Bonds (rated AAA to junk), usually not that great an investment and with term deposits at 7-8% why would you go near a bond?
 
Guys, I've been looking at the graphs for the last few days. Trying to see pattenrs and all that. But the graphs that are available are limited. And there are so many factors.

What I'm looking for is data for the graphs. For example I would like to get hands on gold price data since say 2000 or earlier if possible suitable for matlab, excel or other software graphing and analysis. This way I could manipulate the graphs as I wanted.

Are there ways to get such data? Not only for gold but for other things too, commodities, currencies, stocks etc.
 
Spets1, below is a link to a Gold chart created using StockCharts.com. You can create charts for a number of US stocks/currencies/commodities and you can change the parameters and timeframe to suit your own requirements. If you click on the Annotate (Java) link below the chart you get access to a range of different charting tools.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83114454988

While it's not perfect and definitely not as good as a many of the available charting software applications, and you're limited to only 3 years of data history, it's not bad for a freebie. The other option is to subscribe to the Stock Charts service or to a data package service, but this comes at a price and depending on your needs it may not be worth the cost.
 
One thing that constantly amazes me is that I'm still able to find collectible silver coins at spot or just above. Do the people that hold these coins not see the true appreciation value or do they just need the cash for something else ?
 
You can get historical data on gold and silver prices going back to 1968 from the LBMA:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=48&title=historical_statistics

If you want to convert prices into Aussie dollars you will need to get exchange rate data from the Bank of England or the RBA.


spets1 said:
Guys, I've been looking at the graphs for the last few days. Trying to see pattenrs and all that. But the graphs that are available are limited. And there are so many factors.

What I'm looking for is data for the graphs. For example I would like to get hands on gold price data since say 2000 or earlier if possible suitable for matlab, excel or other software graphing and analysis. This way I could manipulate the graphs as I wanted.

Are there ways to get such data? Not only for gold but for other things too, commodities, currencies, stocks etc.
Click to expand...
 
Well i can hardly see myself hanging on to fiat money once i've sold my silver, considering the fact that the sole reason i've invested in PM's in the first place was to get out of fiat money. I'd probably invest in whatever is considered undervalued but has potential to make great gains. So stocks, other commodities,real estate, guess it depends.
 
spets1 said:
Guys, I've been looking at the graphs for the last few days. Trying to see pattenrs and all that. But the graphs that are available are limited. And there are so many factors.

What I'm looking for is data for the graphs. For example I would like to get hands on gold price data since say 2000 or earlier if possible suitable for matlab, excel or other software graphing and analysis. This way I could manipulate the graphs as I wanted.

Are there ways to get such data? Not only for gold but for other things too, commodities, currencies, stocks etc.
Click to expand...

You can have the data on kitco
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html
 
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