WOW! What just happened?

heyimderrick said:
This cracks me up. All the folks on the $50 and up without a correction bandwagon are all worked up.
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I was just a lil worked up because of the 11-12% drop in Asia, like how could that happen over night :O
 
Nub Cannon said:
heyimderrick said:
This cracks me up. All the folks on the $50 and up without a correction bandwagon are all worked up.
Click to expand...


I was just a lil worked up because of the 11-12% drop in Asia, like how could that happen over night :O
Click to expand...

Overbought conditions. CME margin hikes. Profit taking. Geopolitical events.... Lots of reasons.

I'll be a strong buyer after 20% correction.
 
Can someone spare some change for a old silver stacker just enough for some bread.
 
I guess those factors make sense but the drop was so quick, just surprised me, I'm prepared for a 20-30% drop. It seems that all the bears are comin out of the wood work with talk of bubbles bursting, crashes and what not, all that stuff has me second guessing myself lately but as long as the Asians keep buying the Ag I think we should be alright.
 
jezzarayman said:
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
jezzarayman said:
Keep up the good work joseph/hobo jo! PS after my uncle and my grandfather rang me in the last few days mentioning silver, which along with those pics of the line of people at ABC , I now at last agree with you that phase 3 is upon us! and the next 2-3 years should be well interesting to say the least!
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Can anybody please supply me with a reference to where these various "phases" are defined??

Hearing the whole time about how we're in "phase3" is working on my tits because my intuition tells me its bullshit (because i know phase 3 is the final phase of the bull run).
Would just like to see the who and the how about the definitions of these phases...
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It's difficult to be precise on the timing/specific activity that can define the stages of a bull market, but the theory goes and refer to hobo jo's / bullion barons blog for the timeline chart, but I guess the early stages of phase 3 the final phase is sharp and strong price movements to the upside, pieces in mainstream media (as we have seen with silver lately) including AFR and the sunday age in the last week. I recently had relatives who have very little investment knowledge call me as they read articles about silver and the excitement surrounding it. herds of people buying physical as i guess we have seen lately refer to photos of lines at dealers and physical shortages at bullion dealers which yes we have seen before but this time at near record prices. I'll try and copy and paste the timeline chart If i can find it. Some may find it a rather loose theory and this bull market may shock everyone to the upside or disappoint who knows?

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/704_bubblesandmanias.gif
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Thanks for that mate.

Based on the graph i'd have to say we're probably around the "bear trap" point now or maybe even before .... depends on how big this pullback is.
If it stays at 10% then not even. If it drops more - say 15 - 20% - then i'd say definately bear trap.

If it stays around 10% max drop then the bear trap will still be somewhere ahead!
 
hobo-jo said:
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
Can anybody please supply me with a reference to where these various "phases" are defined??
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Stealth Phase

Those who understand the new fundamentals realize an emerging opportunity for substantial future appreciation, but at a substantial risk since their assumptions are so far unproven. So the "smart money" gets in, often quietly and cautiously. This category of investor tends to have better access to information and a higher capacity to understand it. Prices gradually increase, but often completely unnoticed by the general population. Larger and larger positions are established as the smart money start to better understand that the fundamentals are well grounded and that this asset is likely to experience significant future valuations.

Awareness Phase

Many investors start to realize the momentum, bringing additional money in and pushing prices higher. There can be a short-lived sell off phase taking place as a few investors cash in their first profits (there could also be several sell off phases, each beginning at an higher level than the previous one). The smart money takes this opportunity to reinforce its existing positions. In the later stages of this phase the media starts to notice and those getting in are increasingly "unsophisticated".

Mania Phase

Everyone is noticing that prices are going up and the public jumps in for this "investment opportunity of a lifetime". The expectation of future appreciation becomes a "no brainer" and a linear inference mentality sets in; future prices are a "guaranteed" extrapolation of past price appreciation, which of course goes against any conventional wisdom. This phase is however not about logic. Floods of money come in creating even greater expectations and pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The higher the price, the more investments pour in. Fairly unnoticed from the general public caught in this new frenzy, the smart money as well as many institutional investors are quietly pulling out and selling their assets to eager future bag holders. Unbiased opinion about the fundamentals becomes increasingly difficult to find as many players are heavily invested and have every interest to keep the appreciation "the game" going. The market gradually becomes more exuberant as "paper fortunes" are made and greed sets in. Everyone tries to jump in and new investors have absolutely no understanding of the market, its dynamic and fundamentals. Prices are simply bid up with all financial means possible, particularly leverage and debt. If the bubble is linked with lax sources of credit, then it will endure far longer than many observers would expect. At some point statements are made about entirely new fundamentals implying that a "permanent high plateau" has been reached to justify future price increases; the bubble is about to collapse.

Blow off Phase

A moment of epiphany (a trigger) arrives and everyone roughly at the same time realize that the situation has changed (like the Road Runner Coyote realizing he is about to fall after walking on thin air for a few seconds). Confidence and expectations encounter a paradigm shift, call it a reality check, not without a phase of denial where many try to reassure the public that this is just a temporary setback and that anyone saying otherwise does not know what he is talking about. Some are fooled, but not for long. Like a directionless herd many try to unload their assets to a greater fool, but takers are few; everyone is expecting further price declines. The house of cards collapses under its own weight and late comers (commonly the general public) are left to hold the bag while the smart money has pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet at a rate much faster than the one that inflated the bubble. Many over-leveraged bag holders go bankrupt, triggering additional waves of sales. There is even the possibility that the valuation undershoots the long term mean, implying a significant buying opportunity. However, the general public at this point considers this sector as "the worst possible investment one can make in his life". This is the time when the smart money starts acquiring assets at bargain bottom prices.
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http://canadianfinanceblog.com/is-the-current-market-a-return-to-normal/
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Thanks Hobo

Based on this i'd have to say that we've only reached the awareness phase now ...

While there is some MSM attention now it hardly qualifies for the mania phase. The mania phase media attention is more like what property had over the last decade - THAT's mania phase for you!

Nope, we're pretty damn far from silver being in a mania phase....
 
Yet another margin hike in silver. Getting rid of the volatility/speculators is causing a bit of volatility.
 
Contrarian said:
Yippe,

You'll be pleased to see that your "permanent high plateau" gets a mention.

It's called the imaginary phase.

Don't read too much into these phases, you might find out that you are one of the sheeple!


C
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Oh i wont dont you worry. i find it all quite amusing actually.
I believe we are now in the awareness phase ...

I believe you've sold prematurely, but perhaps you can still turn it into a good thing. Let us know how it goes.
 
heyimderrick said:
Nub Cannon said:
heyimderrick said:
This cracks me up. All the folks on the $50 and up without a correction bandwagon are all worked up.
Click to expand...


I was just a lil worked up because of the 11-12% drop in Asia, like how could that happen over night :O
Click to expand...

Overbought conditions. CME margin hikes. Profit taking. Geopolitical events.... Lots of reasons.

I'll be a strong buyer after 20% correction.
Click to expand...

Make sure to set your alarm clock mate
 
what makes you think he sold prematurely?
maybe he had bills to pay? other investments to go into? profit taking to buy an m3 :D , profit taking to take a holiday
profit is profit... you must be new to this investing thing
 
The money I sink into silver I am not going to need for at least 3-5 years so I think it's stupid to constantly watch the price. There's no doubt in my mind that it will be higher than it is now in that time.

I kind of get pissed watching it go higher because I want more.
 
damien192x said:
The money I sink into silver I am not going to need for at least 3-5 years so I think it's stupid to constantly watch the price. There's no doubt in my mind that it will be higher than it is now in that time.

I kind of get pissed watching it go higher because I want more.
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My train of thought exactly :)

Hope it dips to 30 and I can pull up a truck ;)
 
unfunkable said:
what makes you think he sold prematurely?
maybe he had bills to pay? other investments to go into? profit taking to buy an m3 :D , profit taking to take a holiday
profit is profit... you must be new to this investing thing
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I am, but i learn quickly
 
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
unfunkable said:
what makes you think he sold prematurely?
maybe he had bills to pay? other investments to go into? profit taking to buy an m3 :D , profit taking to take a holiday
profit is profit... you must be new to this investing thing
Click to expand...

I am, but i learn quickly
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Be careful not to confuse exuberance with experience. ;)


C
 
I was flabbergasted to read the conformist bleatings in the Australian and then watch the shill gloating on the ABC about how the silver "bubble" had now "burst"~ what a load of bull$hit. How could it be a bubble when it is still relatively uncommon for people to own silver? All I saw was sore-losers who were bitter that they weren't able to pick the spectacular rise of silver like we SS'ers were able to having a great big song and dance on what they presumed was the grave of silver. A bit premature if you ask me, all bull markets correct by 10-20%, its a healthy shakeout. I'll be buying the dips, and I'll be laughing all the way to the vault in the long run.
 
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