Will there be another Ag slap down?

S

SULLA

Active Member
Silver Stacker
Ladies and Gentlemen, i have a thought to express re the current silver surge.

Historically whenever we saw surges with silver the rise ended in a substantial fall back to Base Camp.

Circumstances are somewhat different today with demand for silver from numerous industrial sectors which have only recently developed.

We are in a very unique environment with the various demands on silver.

Considering how historically silver gets belted down after reaching new highs, I am predicting that the "SWAMP" is at this very moment working on sending the Ag price back to early 2025 levels.

I have no evidence to support this view except to highlight silver's rises and falls over the past nearly 50 years.

I predict a major correction in the Ag price, perhaps back to 50% of current value
before it goes to the moon.

Any thoughts?
 
China has firewalled its exports.
The Chinese price is much higher than the price outside.
Therefore > arbitrage opportunities.

Unlikely that this is "managed high" for the purpose of setting up a "secret long squeeze", since they are the longs...

At present (short term at least), Bloomberg commodities re-indexing has encourage funds that track it to sell.
The price initially dropped, but then rose and made new ATH.
This isnt a new thing, known well in advance, just like options expiration dates.

Dealers who hold physical in volume hedge in shorts to avoid exposure:
ycharts.com

COMEX Silver Combined Swap Dealers Short Positions (Weekly)…

View weekly updates and historical trends for COMEX Silver Combined Swap Dealers Short Positions. Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Track e…
ycharts.com ycharts.com
But managed money shorts invest in a fall in the price (generally unbacked):
ycharts.com

COMEX Silver Futures Managed Money Short Positions (Weekly)…

View weekly updates and historical trends for COMEX Silver Futures Managed Money Short Positions. Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Track e…
ycharts.com ycharts.com

Also: Copper, Lead and Zinc prices are UP...
So the silver price is not so high that the base metal miners are overproducing to deliver the "critical demand"... yet.

Left over lichorish jelly beans no more... but the normies are still trading like its the hot shit?
Production is up, but news of its demand?

Still doesnt answer the question, but it blew through 42 a long time ago.
Trump media buys fusion company, but hates hydrogen tech...
What are you going to store all of the "free energy" in batteries? Or are you going to convert water to storable fuel at 80%+ efficency and save the solar silver for more tocamaks?

I dont see free energy coming for at least a decade...
Platinum is still less than gold.
 
I have always thought that the price of silver was being manipulated to keep it low, so that people would have confidence in fiat currency and give up hard currency. That's why I was buying it, I figured one day they would get caught and silver would find its true price. Plus I enjoy a good conspiracy theory.

The way I thought they did this was to sell precious metals from the stockpile, flood the market to bring the price down and everyone would lose confidence and invest somewhere else. That's why the bank of England sold all their gold at the same time instead of drip feeding the market: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999–2002_sale_of_British_gold_reserves

I turns out I was sort of right but they didn't even have to sell silver from the stockpile, they just pretended to and at the last minute cancelled all the orders: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8260-20

But now they have run out of their stockpiles and they have been caught spoofing so that is going to be harder to pull off again.

Margin hikes have caused a lot of traders to sell silver as they are over leveraged (according to the Asian Guy) and that has hapenned 3-4 times over Christmas and it only kept the price down for a day. The supposed crash after the Bloomberg re-indexing didn't seem to happen so I guess the usual ways of manipulating the price down are done.

So now if the big companies want to make money by manipulating the market they are going to have to do it by manipulating the market upwards, and although I don't approve of that, it would make up for the last 8 years of sideways suppression.
 

“Will there be another Ag slap down?”​


No doubt. The question I ask myself is do I buy, hold or sell? I wear very small pants in this market and have no control over the price. ATM holding. Expect continued volatility over the next week or so. I believe Chinese New year celebrations with reduced trading around this time. The biggest bullion Banks have had the opportunity to “balance their books”. Large PM consumers would have to be considering if and when to lock in future supply costs. Companies that produce still operating with very healthy margins! Also noted on another forum some local Bullion Dealers halting/restricting trading for the moment. We live in interesting times!!!
 
So anybody have thoughts on increasing stocks small-time while the 'correction' is on? Seems weird to me adding at AUD$130ish when the majority of my stack all came from the sub $30 era and briefly hit ~7 times that last week. Is the consensus now that it will stabilise at I dunno, AUD$100-$120 and then continue a more logical upward trend or all bets are off still?
 
Considering bullion dealers are delisting stock and clearly want to wait for things to calm down would suggest that further turbulence is ahead.

Perthmint live prices - well not sure where this data is from. Clearly different to other global live prices.

It is a lesson for us all that when things go crazy our ability to trade these metals can be severely restricted.

Having SilverStackers available is a saving grace for which i am very happy about. A lot more sanity prevailing here even despite some enthusiastic moonshot estimations. Well done @SilverSerf in your purchases. Yes it would seem a tough choice to purchase in such a market.
 
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