WILL SILVER HIT $100 BY END OF YEAR?

[Wout]

I think $50 is realistic but am having doubts it will even get to there with a solid base, if we see another speculative run up of the price then theres a good chance it could go higher but then have another correction etc

I think when investor demand starts having an impact on supply we will see higher prices but atm i think there is plenty of silver out there still

 

[Dwayne]

No matter what the tax payers think or do - the debt will always be collected. Have you seen the debt of some of the 3rd world countries? The government changes hands (usually violently) like most change their undies but the debt burdened against the "citizens" remains and has to be paid. Even if th US had a civil uprising - do you really expect China to say "Ah - you've changed governments - you don't need to pay off the debt". If a country thinks it can refuse to pay it's debts - it will be in for a rude awakening.

In case you hadn't noticed - we are all "slaves" of our Governments. Try not paying your taxes and you'll soon see how much of a "free" person you are.

malachii

Countries often refuse to pay their debts, and generally nothing particularly bad happens to them at all. They might be unable to borrow money on international debt markets for a few years but that's about all the consequences that eventuate.

The countries that have lent them money will still pursue them. They maybe able to dodge it for a while but eventually they have to pay. This was the whole thing behind the "cancel the 3rd world debt" rally a year or two ago. The debts they had racked up over the years were burying them and they were being forced to pay. I noticed that not a lot (in the grand scheme of things) was cancelled.

malachii

Compare that to the situation with argentina when they defaulted in 2002. Basically what happened was they eventually swapped their outstanding bonds for new ones at about 30% of their original value with much longer expiry - so the vast majority of their debt just disappeared and the owners of that debt were forced to take the loss.

 

[capt.sparrow]

That is of course assuming that the citizens of said country will accept being strung up by their supposed elected officials for all the debt owed by the government, which in the case of the US is tantamount to its citizens being reduced to becoming slaves of the "government".
Once they realise they've been fleeced i dont think the paper money "backing" will be as strong as you believe.
It definately wont in the US, where 300 million gun wielding citizens will definately need to be listened to by government. Here in Australia it may be different though since its citizens have already been disarmed by the government. It's going to get interesting thats for sure

No matter what the tax payers think or do - the debt will always be collected. Have you seen the debt of some of the 3rd world countries? The government changes hands (usually violently) like most change their undies but the debt burdened against the "citizens" remains and has too be paid. Even if the US had a civil uprising - do you really expect China to say "Ah - you've changed governments - you don't need to pay off the debt". If a country thinks it can refuse to pay it's debts - it will be in for a rude awakening.

In case you hadn't noticed - we are all "slaves" of our Governments. Try not paying your taxes and you'll soon see how much of a "free" person you are.

malachii

third world countries - especially those in Africa - have their debt written off all the time. in fact i think for any African country to actually pay its debt is a rare exception at best.

Regarding the US debt - well as long as the US has bigger guns than China it doesn't really matter what China thinks... in fact I'll bet the Chinese have already written off most of the US debt they hold, apart from the part they can exchange for farms and other real estate in Australia...

In general, i dont agree with your statements at all. Citizens in a country can accomplish just about anything that they put their minds to, and shedding themselves of parasitic governments is certainly one of the very top contenders for civil war!

Of course those without a backbone or who are mindless drones (or both) wont mind being subservient and having their freedoms eroded, but i reckon there are many more who just wont accept it.

 

[jnkmbx]

Whether banks fail or not has little to do with the "backing" of the paper money. This is the difference I was trying to point out before. Banks may fail (Bank of Vic anyone? - I know, it didn't fail but would have if the CBA hadn't "come to it's rescue". Pyramid is an example of a failure but was a building society) but that does not mean our currency will be worthless. We will still have commodites to sell, people to pay taxes, carbon taxes to pay and GST to relieve people of their hard earned.

If they all fall due to a domino effect, physical cash will become sparse.
The banks hold most of the currency (whether backed by them or the goverment), so while the currency may not be worthless, it will not be in sufficient quantities to support the economy.
(By holding it I mean peoples bank balances - not many people keep stacks of cash at home)

The banks will have an interesting time if/when our property bubble "pops" but a lot of the more toxic debts will have pushed on to others (check where your superannuation fund is investing - makes for interesting/worrying reading if you really believe there will be a major fall out from a property bubble!).

Depending on the timing that may seal their fate.
If super gets wiped out by GFC2 there won't be much for the taking @_@

Personally, I don't have super. It may get plundered eventually

If banks do close their doors (still as possible as back in the 1890s) I'm not sure how much good PMs will really be. I know I would be reluctant to swap my food/equipment etc for PMs. Maybe gold - but not silver - it's value relies too much on industrial uses and if there is a SHTF scenario - the main demand of silver will plummet causing an excess of silver on the market. Just look at GFC1 for an introduction to that.

It'll take a dive alright, I'm pretty much expecting that.
However the trade would be with physical silver, and "on the field" I think it will be seen as more valuable than the paper value.
The same could be said for gold. Even if the charts say $300, would people believe that the ounce in hand is really worth that much?

*holds an ounce out in palm for a sack of potatoes*

I think during those times it's value, like the value of other commodities, will be based on perception rather than what the collapsed market says.

On that note, I think food will be worth more than gold or silver.

 

[Guest]

I predict $60-$80 this year. I doubt we'll see sub $25 again in this currency.

Gold and silver are a good buy no matter which way you cut it

 

[malachii]

Compare that to the situation with argentina when they defaulted in 2002. Basically what happened was they eventually swapped their outstanding bonds for new ones at about 30% of their original value with much longer expiry - so the vast majority of their debt just disappeared and the owners of that debt were forced to take the loss.

You'll actually find that the Argentinian debt is still being restructured. The last major restructuring took place in 2010 and is now over 90% complete from it's 2001 default. The debt did not disappear - the IMF took a large chunk and has been paid back gradually over the last decade. Argentina is unable to raise new debt until the old defaulted debt has been dealt with completely.

malachii

 

[grinners]

"It'll go up a hundred fold" right at the end of the video.

We can only hope! lol

 

[silvertongue]

Perhaps in NZ, but even then I think unlikely.... 2012 may be a different kettle of fish, though.

 

[Dwayne]

Compare that to the situation with argentina when they defaulted in 2002. Basically what happened was they eventually swapped their outstanding bonds for new ones at about 30% of their original value with much longer expiry - so the vast majority of their debt just disappeared and the owners of that debt were forced to take the loss.

You'll actually find that the Argentinian debt is still being restructured. The last major restructuring took place in 2010 and is now over 90% complete from it's 2001 default. The debt did not disappear - the IMF took a large chunk and has been paid back gradually over the last decade. Argentina is unable to raise new debt until the old defaulted debt has been dealt with completely.

malachii

Yep, but by "restructured" my understanding was that a fair bit of the debt was basically disappearing under the terms of the restructure. Is that not the case?

 

[silver$100]

I think, Silver will hit $100 in the second half of 2012.

As a long-term Silver investor you can only wait and learn more about your asset.

Can You Pass the 2011 Silver Quiz? http://silver-info.com/can-you-pass-the-2011-silver-quiz.htm

 

[MelbBrad]

No.
That's based on what happened recently when it neared $US50. It got smashed. It's a rigged f$&@ing game. The big boys rule the roost. We can't compete. Please don't fill the rest of this thread with 'paper-physical spread' 'crash JPM' or 'COMEX default'
It's all bull5h1t. It's a game. It's rigged. Just like the stock market. Just like rhodium a few years back. Just like property.
It's a joke.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggggghhhhhhhhh. Rant over.

Personally i love it that its rigged! means i can collect more ounces than if silver was not manipulated down.
But the real sweetener is the fact that those big boyz who are doing the rigging wont be able to do it forever.
and once that party stops, well then i guess those who stopped buying at whatever price will begin to have some regrets. but regrets will be too late as it will be impossible to "get back in"

I've been hearing about parties stopping for ages. I've been hearing about COMEX going bust for just as long. I've been listening to guys like you telling me this 'manipulation' gives them time to load up. Load up for what exactly? For the POS to remain under $36 for the rest of your life? Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Nothing had changed since the GFC. No one of importance has been made accountable. Laws haven't changed. Except private debt becoming govt debt. Nothing has changed. It's all a scam. It's a joke. More printing. More debt. More war.

 

[fishball]

Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Find me a bank that pays > 20% interest p/a.

Silver has gone up from $20 June last year to current price of around $35.

 

[malachii]

Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Find me a bank that pays > 20% interest p/a.

Silver has gone up from $20 June last year to current price of around $35.

Find me bank interest that pays NEGATIVE 30% over 2 months. Silver has gone from $50 to $35 in about 8 weeks.

It's easy to prove a point when you can pick a time frame. Silver has been a shocking investment if held from 1980 until about 3 years ago. Any savings account at a bank would have been better.

malachii

 

[fishball]

Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Find me a bank that pays > 20% interest p/a.

Silver has gone up from $20 June last year to current price of around $35.

Find me bank interest that pays NEGATIVE 30% over 2 months. Silver has gone from $50 to $35 in about 8 weeks.

It's easy to prove a point when you can pick a time frame. Silver has been a shocking investment if held from 1980 until about 3 years ago. Any savings account at a bank would have been better.

malachii

So you manage to pick the most volatile period when you're trying to lecture me about time periods. What a joke.

If you're an idiot who buys at peaks and sells when it crashes then yeah keep your money in the bank because you're never going to get positive capital gains using that method of investing.

If you look at the past 10 years, Silver has outperformed many other commodities and asset classes and especially cash in the bank.

Blanket statements like "Cash is a better investment than Silver/RE/Gold" are stupid and don't make any sense without specifying a time period.

In theory cash is the worst possible investment you can make since it is risk free meaning the returns will be minimal. Anything else that has risk will have a chance net a higher return. Of course how risk averse you are will affect your investment decisions.

 

[Dwayne]

So you manage to pick the most volatile period when you're trying to lecture me about time periods. What a joke.

I suspect that was his point! malachii was trying to show that you could make the returns look good or bad simply by cherry picking a time period. That doesn't mean it's a good or bad investment.

 

[renovator]

Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Find me a bank that pays > 20% interest p/a.

Silver has gone up from $20 June last year to current price of around $35.

Find me bank interest that pays NEGATIVE 30% over 2 months. Silver has gone from $50 to $35 in about 8 weeks.

It's easy to prove a point when you can pick a time frame. Silver has been a shocking investment if held from 1980 until about 3 years ago. Any savings account at a bank would have been better.

malachii

I agree malachi .This is why you should never put all your eggs in the silver basket diversity in your portfolio is crucial to hedge against the others

 

[fishball]

So you manage to pick the most volatile period when you're trying to lecture me about time periods. What a joke.

I suspect that was his point! malachii was trying to show that you could make the returns look good or bad simply by cherry picking a time period. That doesn't mean it's a good or bad investment.

Pretty much what I was trying to say but it came across wrong.

I've been hearing about parties stopping for ages. I've been hearing about COMEX going bust for just as long. I've been listening to guys like you telling me this 'manipulation' gives them time to load up. Load up for what exactly? For the POS to remain under $36 for the rest of your life? Bank interest will hive you better returns. It's a f$&@ing joke.

Was trying to answer the original quote. If you look at Silver or make assumptions about Silver then most certainly there will be cases when cash out performs Silver but if that's your justification for investing 'in cash', it's a big joke. You shouldn't invest in Silver because you think it's going to go to the moon or you expect 1000% returns in 2 years, if you think there's potential, invest otherwise don't. Out of all asset classes cash is the worst performing sitting in the bank gaining interest. How do you think the banks are able to profit and give you interest? Of course they're making more off your money.

 

[Jislizard]

From what I was reading, silver and gold are considered bad investments.

The example usually given is of the story of the Roman Legionnaire getting paid a gold denarus and being able to spend it on a meal, a new pair of sandals and a belt and how that same coin today would get you a new pair of shoes , a meal out and a belt as well. Not sure if it is accurate but it is used to show that the value of gold has remained steady over the last 2000 years.

Silver was always sold to me as a hedge against inflation. It was meant to match inflation rates and allow you to convert it in and out of fiat without any significant loss.

The only investment to be made was from numismatic pieces.

This was before massive speculation over the past year when you could in fact use it as an investment and make money providing you know when to get out.

 

[Ag]

From what I was reading, silver and gold are considered bad investments.

The example usually given is of the story of the Roman Legionnaire getting paid a gold denarus and being able to spend it on a meal, a new pair of sandals and a belt and how that same coin today would get you a new pair of shoes , a meal out and a belt as well. Not sure if it is accurate but it is used to show that the value of gold has remained steady over the last 2000 years.

Silver was always sold to me as a hedge against inflation. It was meant to match inflation rates and allow you to convert it in and out of fiat without any significant loss.

The only investment to be made was from numismatic pieces.

This was before massive speculation over the past year when you could in fact use it as an investment and make money providing you know when to get out.

Yep thats true...but for a Roman Legionnaire, one Gold denarus equaled approx 16 Silver ones...last check was around 40 today...second there both a hedge against inflation and SHOULD keep with it...IMHO it hasn't...so has upswing...lastly with a financial currency crisis,there would be a flood to PM's or other assets of intrinsic value - likely driving or overshooting the price on basic supply/demand...more to this but just posting a few to make the point...

 

[Sargeant Argent]

No I don't think it will go anywhere near 100 this year but I'm fine with that I'm hoping that iit stays in the 30's for a couple more months and as soon as it breaks 45 USD again I'm hoping to trade up for some gold. I'm into metals for the long haul so I'm hoping it stays affordable at least for the next few years so I can stack as much as possible.