CBA is on the cusp of breaking below $70 on Monday. If it closes below this level, it will be the first close below $70 since about July 2013. Good times 
Will CBA break major support level?
- Thread starter Caput Lupinum
- Start date
I'd have to agree a break looks more likely - the long negative monthly candles to the right of the $95 peak, the weak looking rally post Feb 2016, the strong volume bearish engulfing candle last month (Aug). It all looks like a malformed H&S top. Agree confirmed $70 break is 'key'.
CBA can throw up surprises for a chart guesser though. Looking back at the second half of 2011 - I would never have picked that to immediately recover and go on for a 3 year uptrend.
CBA 10 year Monthly
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CBA can throw up surprises for a chart guesser though. Looking back at the second half of 2011 - I would never have picked that to immediately recover and go on for a 3 year uptrend.
CBA 10 year Monthly
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From macro today
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/09/monster-top-chart-breaks-beneath-cba-share-price/
It broke its March low very briefly at the open and looks likely to smash it before long (though remember charts are meaningless until broken). The set up is very bearish with a huge head and shoulder top and text book descending triangle pattern.
Mum's and Dad's pain ahead.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/09/monster-top-chart-breaks-beneath-cba-share-price/
It broke its March low very briefly at the open and looks likely to smash it before long (though remember charts are meaningless until broken). The set up is very bearish with a huge head and shoulder top and text book descending triangle pattern.
Mum's and Dad's pain ahead.
A proper break hasnt happened yet, and the price yesterday met the level just below $70 on its low and recovered well. Made an indecisive candlestick. Similar thing happened in April and a short term rally ensued.
However as noted, the trend is down now and the price has been contained in a descending triangle shape, which chart watchers view as a bearish pattern. Added to which, the claim that the bigger pricing pattern could be a multi-year 'head and shoulders' topping pattern which is assigned a very bearish probability if it 'confirms a break' of support which again is $70.
Last night was a strong close for the American market, our futures would be up, and given the indecisive looking close yesterday for CBA at its support level it'd be surprising to see it break down today. If it crashes support against an up day for the index that would be extra bearish look for CBA
Its quite interesting as you would think the market sentiment towards our premium bank would suggest something about the whole market?
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However as noted, the trend is down now and the price has been contained in a descending triangle shape, which chart watchers view as a bearish pattern. Added to which, the claim that the bigger pricing pattern could be a multi-year 'head and shoulders' topping pattern which is assigned a very bearish probability if it 'confirms a break' of support which again is $70.
Last night was a strong close for the American market, our futures would be up, and given the indecisive looking close yesterday for CBA at its support level it'd be surprising to see it break down today. If it crashes support against an up day for the index that would be extra bearish look for CBA
Its quite interesting as you would think the market sentiment towards our premium bank would suggest something about the whole market?
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All this analytical stuff looks impressive and baffles the crap out of me, but is there solid evidence that doing all of this provides better returns than a simple, diversified share portfolio that's just left alone?
By this I don't mean show me a few winners - that could equally be used to show some big gambler's system works - but if you compared a bunch of traders who do it this way with a few examples of 'static and unmanaged' share portfolios, how much better do the 'technical experts' perform?
By this I don't mean show me a few winners - that could equally be used to show some big gambler's system works - but if you compared a bunch of traders who do it this way with a few examples of 'static and unmanaged' share portfolios, how much better do the 'technical experts' perform?
So called technical analysis, which for me is 'chart hunches', is hit and miss. Nobody has to take any notice of it, its partly subjective, and for me i do it as a hobby and because i suck at fundamental analysis. I think investors who take no notice of charts are almost as mad as pure chartists. Buying and selling at the right price is important to most, but fundamentalists tend to dismiss charts and market sentiment.
There are facts recorded on a price chart: highs and lows, opens and closes, volume. I would also class peaks and troughs, trendlines, support levels as facts, but maybe not. Why shouldnt these facts imply something about buyer/seller sentiment, and therefore about probable (not certain) future buying/selling?
There are facts recorded on a price chart: highs and lows, opens and closes, volume. I would also class peaks and troughs, trendlines, support levels as facts, but maybe not. Why shouldnt these facts imply something about buyer/seller sentiment, and therefore about probable (not certain) future buying/selling?
Of course mate, FATCATs need their bonuses you know!
Yesterday could have easily been interpreted as bouncing off the support at $70 but I'd say today - most definitely - is a clear break below support.
I'm a bit surprised CBA didn't sell off more savagely, though I guess a 1% drop in the context of a broader market bounce is probably significant.
Are you going short now Caput? Personally, I am tempted but still hurting from the last time I took a speculative position on an Aussie bank and got burnt. Too much risk from insiders for me, but if I was previously holding CBA I would be out by now for sure.
I'm a bit surprised CBA didn't sell off more savagely, though I guess a 1% drop in the context of a broader market bounce is probably significant.
Are you going short now Caput? Personally, I am tempted but still hurting from the last time I took a speculative position on an Aussie bank and got burnt. Too much risk from insiders for me, but if I was previously holding CBA I would be out by now for sure.
Would like to see strong follow-through tomorrow on good volume. What happens overnight on the US session could determine that. I have a pending order in place on a short position. Hopefully it gets triggered tomorrow.
So how's this embarrasing discussion going?
Nice high volume bullish engulfing weekly candlestick completed the week of discussion, followed by a positive one this week.
Friday's close was $73.40, but the 'descending triangle' downtrend line is roughly at $76-77 and this target will get a little lower each week.
CBA Weekly
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Nice high volume bullish engulfing weekly candlestick completed the week of discussion, followed by a positive one this week.
Friday's close was $73.40, but the 'descending triangle' downtrend line is roughly at $76-77 and this target will get a little lower each week.
CBA Weekly
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No-one bet against it. It was brought up and discussed as a possible short if it met a condition, which it didn't. I thought it would more likely than not confirm a break of $70, but it didn't. I would still be uncomfortable as a holder - a few strong closes above 76 should ease the danger, then a higher low (significantly above 70) would look better. Even then it will look like a vulnerable price chart for some time imo.
Could be a good day to short CBA.
Yesterday's close was 73.50, comfortably off the support at 70.00 but with potential contagion across the sector from Deutsche Bank (already affecting US financials) the risks may be underestimated by the markets here in Aust.
Yesterday's close was 73.50, comfortably off the support at 70.00 but with potential contagion across the sector from Deutsche Bank (already affecting US financials) the risks may be underestimated by the markets here in Aust.
CBA 5YR WKLY
CBA arguably back in the vulnerable zone. Is in a downtrend on the weekly chart.
The descending triangle pattern, previously mentioned over a year ago, was broken to the upside. A strong rally followed which sputtered out and gave way to the current downtrend. The previous head and shoulders pattern was never activated by a break of the neckline. Are these bearish patterns now irrelevant? Maybe they are like the malaises people recover from but lead into the real sickness. Cheers.
CBA arguably back in the vulnerable zone. Is in a downtrend on the weekly chart.
The descending triangle pattern, previously mentioned over a year ago, was broken to the upside. A strong rally followed which sputtered out and gave way to the current downtrend. The previous head and shoulders pattern was never activated by a break of the neckline. Are these bearish patterns now irrelevant? Maybe they are like the malaises people recover from but lead into the real sickness. Cheers.