why is silver falling

I pulled out some old records for everyone's info

On Saturday the 22/12/2012 -I bought a 5oz snake at a dealer for $169.35 Spot was $28.86
That is a premium of $25.05 for 5oz or $5.01/ oz

Yesterday the same dealer was selling a 5oz snake for $148.30 -spot is $23.31
Premium is $31.75 or $6.35 /oz

By the way this is the cheapest I can find right now....

Several dealers are selling at over $155 and I found a few at $160+

So premiums are rising - lol who would have guessed ???

Rising premiums is rising disconnect ?
 
Ronnie 666 said:
I pulled out some old records for everyone's info

On Saturday the 22/12/2012 -I bought a 5oz snake at a dealer for $169.35 Spot was $28.86
That is a premium of $25.05 for 5oz or $5.01/ oz

Yesterday the same dealer was selling a 5oz snake for $148.30 -spot is $23.31
Premium is $31.75 or $6.35 /oz

By the way this is the cheapest I can find right now....

Several dealers are selling at over $155 and I found a few at $160+

So premiums are rising - lol who would have guessed ???

Rising premiums is rising disconnect ?
Click to expand...


Personally I'd rather pay $148.30 :cool:
 
I know GP occasionally discuses premiums and has recently mentioned increased premiums especially on US and Canadian silver. Most dealers on SS say nothing or the bigger ones say -plenty of supply nothing to see here. It would be nice if Bullion dealers participated in this discussion as they would be far more knowledgeable as regards true supply and premiums from wholesalers.
 
Is it usual for Perth Mint to have the cheapest prices of any dealer on Silver bars?

I noticed currently at Perth Mint 1kg is in the $790s and a 10oz is $250ish whilst nearly all the other mainstreet dealers have 1kg bars in the mid $820's and $270ish for a 10oz'er and that is a mix of different brands.

BMark lists 1kg Pamps for just under $870!
 
Give it a rest - you are all right

Yes there will obviously be supply problems at the moment - there always is after a sudden fall or rise
Obviously dealers are not happy to lose money so may increase premiums for a while

If the price stays stable for a few months then everything will return to normal at the new prices

As wrcmad states there is no disconnect at present as the physical market still prices off the futures market
But even he would have admit the futures market size dwarfs the physical market so the paper market dominates

At some point that will force a disconnect - or some laws get changed to curb the futures excess
 
Numismatist said:
Is it usual for Perth Mint to have the cheapest prices of any dealer on Silver bars?

I noticed currently at Perth Mint 1kg is in the $790s and a 10oz is $250ish whilst nearly all the other mainstreet dealers have 1kg bars in the mid $820's and $270ish for a 10oz'er and that is a mix of different brands.

BMark lists 1kg Pamps for just under $870!
Click to expand...

The problem is is that they have none - so you can have any price until you try to buy and are told - temporarily unavailable !!
The Perth mint I am referring to ...
 
trew said:
Give it a rest - you are all right

Yes there will obviously be supply problems at the moment - there always is after a sudden fall or rise
Obviously dealers are not happy to lose money so may increase premiums for a while

If the price stays stable for a few months then everything will return to normal at the new prices

As wrcmad states there is no disconnect at present as the physical market still prices off the futures market
But even he would have admit the futures market size dwarfs the physical market so the paper market dominates

At some point that will force a disconnect - or some laws get changed to curb the futures excess
Click to expand...


Spoil sport :P
 
trew said:
Give it a rest - you are all right

Yes there will obviously be supply problems at the moment - there always is after a sudden fall or rise
Obviously dealers are not happy to lose money so may increase premiums for a while

If the price stays stable for a few months then everything will return to normal at the new prices

As wrcmad states there is no disconnect at present as the physical market still prices off the futures market
But even he would have admit the futures market size dwarfs the physical market so the paper market dominates

At some point that will force a disconnect - or some laws get changed to curb the futures excess
Click to expand...

Yes, as you said Trew, the futures markets dwarfs phys, and thus dictates price.
Thanks for reinforcing the realist perspective.
 
Phiber said:
Holdfast said:
Phiber said:
Please enlight me - looks like I can't see the premium rising from before the crash on my purchases...
Click to expand...


Who asked you to come into our conversation?

Piss-off! :D
Click to expand...


F-off yourself :D

But yeah, feel free to let us know how the premiums are booming ... cause apparently I am unable to see what you can!
Click to expand...


LOL :D :D :D

Fair enough! but I said P off.....F off is ok though. ROTFL :lol:

Cheers

H
 
wrcmad said:
Yes, as you said Trew, the futures markets dwarfs phys, and thus dictates price.
Thanks for reinforcing the realist perspective.
Click to expand...

For the time being anyway

I am a realist but also think it is possible that one day the paper traders will go too far and the physical world will tell them to go jump and pass laws to curb them

When paper traders took oil to $150 there were riots all over the world over the price of food going up
That might be a taste of how things might end up going
 
trew said:
wrcmad said:
Yes, as you said Trew, the futures markets dwarfs phys, and thus dictates price.
Thanks for reinforcing the realist perspective.
Click to expand...

For the time being anyway

I am a realist but also think it is possible that one day the paper traders will go too far and the physical world will tell them to go jump and pass laws to curb them

When paper traders took oil to $150 there were riots all over the world over the price of food going up
That might be a taste of how things might end up going
Click to expand...

I agree as the paper market is already dying. There was a major sale of paper metals 2 weeks ago and in the real world metal is bought at record levels. The disconnect has begun. The final stake through the heart is when they default on the Comex or LBMA. Defaults have already started in the European banks. It is only a matter of time. Default will occur and massive sale of paper will follow as the weak hands flood out that will drive the paper price to $0. Phyz Metal prices will soar. The question is will this happen this year or next or the year after. I dont think it matters do you ?
 
trew said:
I am a realist but also think it is possible that one day the paper traders will go too far and the physical world will tell them to go jump and pass laws to curb them
Click to expand...

No arguments there. That is why I stack. :)

Ronnie 666 said:
The final stake through the heart is when they default on the Comex or LBMA. Defaults have already started in the European banks.
Click to expand...
What do you define as default.
If it means settling in cash because phys is unable to be delivered, then it has already happened, and it hardly made a ripple.
 
^^^

The Perth Mint have already defaulted!

Perth do not have the metal to meet demand and have had to reduce the mintage of their 2013 Kookaburra coins from 1,000,000 down to 500,000.

Perth have to save what metal they have just to meet their contracts in China, Germany and the USA for the 2014 Lunar horse...hence their suspension of 2, 5, 10oz coins plus the 1 kilo lunar snake.

Perth would have you believe their BS but................

Perth are starving for precious metal and I pitty those who have Perth Mint Certificates! If I were you; I'd get your metal now before Perth instigate their BS Government Guarantee!
http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/About-The-Perth-Mint/Government-Guarantee.aspx
 
wrcmad said:
trew said:
I am a realist but also think it is possible that one day the paper traders will go too far and the physical world will tell them to go jump and pass laws to curb them
Click to expand...

No arguments there. That is why I stack. :)

Ronnie 666 said:
The final stake through the heart is when they default on the Comex or LBMA. Defaults have already started in the European banks.
Click to expand...
What do you define as default.
If it means settling in cash because phys is unable to be delivered, then it has already happened, and it hardly made a ripple.
Click to expand...

Please read what I said as I hate repeating myself :
" Defaults have already started in the European banks".

As I said defaults have already started (ABM AMRO) on April 2nd this year. I am not aware of the Comex or LBMA defaulting to cash - that will come. When it does it will not be a ripple more like a tidal wave.
 
Not sure if I can call that article good, it's nothing but the Nth bunch of same stories that was written in the $forties.
It's simple: no big inflation as was suspected a few years ago.
So what is happening as of today? Those that bought silver at the driven up price levels, are heading to the exit. Read: sell strong. So they sell, wait till others buy the price again abit up, then they sell again, and so on, so that they shifted the loss to those others.
Even a next stock market crash / crisis phase, will be just the same temporary story as the one we saw.
And this will last until the monetary bases grow WITHOUT excess reserves growing too.
So I decided to not buy silver anymore above bottoms we saw, and maybe even target a lower price.
Instead, I might buy other stuff if it appears as having a better lookout than silver. Because a bank account is a designed for thus sure loss.
That's what I think, based on todays data, as complete or incomplete as it might be.
Those silver ETF's around still hang as a pricehammer above the silver market. And their gold equivalents just proved to have become big dumpers, so why wouldnt the silver ones be different? Next story on the silver market, IShares Silver Trust holders that wait some months till $26 to then dump 100 Moz in a couple days, bringing us $20? I won't be the buyer before then.
 
wrcmad said:
Holdfast said:
^^^

The Perth Mint have already defaulted!
Click to expand...

On what contract have Perth Mint defaulted? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

The contract to mint 1Million 2013 Kooks !
The contract to mint unlimited 1/2,2.5.10 oz and 1kg snakes, 1/2,10oz and 1kg koalas and kooks in 2013

Those promises have been broken (technically a default) Default = Failure to fulfill an obligation or promise
(Webster)

I hope your eyes have not got stuck back to front ?
 
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