BullionBull
New Member
Property Investment is a MUG's GAME from now on:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/story-e6frg8zx-1226036173358
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/story-e6frg8zx-1226036173358
When To Sell Gold/Silver? When To Buy Real Estate (Video Link)
- Thread starter silversurfer2010
- Start date
BullionBull said:
Great article. I agree with it. Australian property is coming down.
However, it is coming down because of economic fundamentals, not because you promoted a strike.
Ps: I'm not an active real estate investor. I am a real estate agent who happens to own investment property.
I am not buying property at the moment but will once the silver
roperty ratio is just right.BullionBull
New Member
jelliott, you should realise gains on your IPs immediately. Long term cyclic downturn ahead in this asset class.
G
Guest
Guest
BullionBull said:
Well this is a lie.
I remember very distinctly someone in an expensive suit and tie telling me (after handing over $499 for a one hour sermon... er... lecture... er... information seminar!) that the price for my shitbox in the middle of nowhere will double in 'value' in the next 7-10 years.
You mean to tell me...
....
.......
............
THEY LIED?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!
OMG Say it isn't so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Okay I jest, but jesus, it's not half obvious. I've said it from day one here and before on other forums the fallacies and lies which this massive ponzi has conned the world.
When you have your entire life savings bet on this scam, you will spruik your arse off whenever you get the podium to ensure you can find a bigger fool!
Take a look through your recent history folks. It's all there.
We're simply repeating history. Nothing new.
G
Guest
Guest
LMBFHAO
Yes the banks will look after you.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...tic-expectations/story-e6frg8zx-1226036173358
Yes the banks will look after you.
Why is the assumption that capital gains is the only way to make money out of real estate?
Why do we assume that there is only 1 real estate market in Australia?
Why do we think that a few people (a buyers' strike by less than 1% of the population of this country never mind the o/s buyers that invest here) who can't get finance and aren't in a position to buy can make an impact on a huge market that effects pretty much every person in Australia? If you have ever been involved in a union strike - you'll understand that getting a few hundred people to actually act in a group way is like herding cats.
I'm not saying real estate is the best investment in the world just as I wouldn't say that any PM investment is going to be a guartanteed winner. Yes - I own property. I also own shares, rental vans, silver, gold, and several other investments. All behave differently at different times. I have bought property at the top of booms and at the bottom. I have bought shares and watched them crash. I have bought PMs and seen the price drop rapidly. Does this make them a bad investment? Only if the main purpose is to make a short term capital gain.
Don't buy real estate if the only way you know how to make a profit is to wait for a capital gain. Don't buy real estate if you are only seeing overpriced houses. Don't buy real estate if you can only get a 3% rental return and have to rely on negative gearing to make it make sense. This advice extends to a property boom or bust. If this is all you can see and all you know about then you are heading for trouble.
I used to train pilots to fly heavy jets for airlines. If a student came to me and said "There is a storm over Perth and I'm flying to Auckland and I only fly in good weather therefore I am not flying" I would stand them down immediately. Before everyone jumps on me and says this is too simplistic - think about it. If prices are booming in your chosen area - it doesn't mean this is the case elsewhere. It also doesn't mean that it is that way even on the whole of your street. If you are willing to learn from people who are doing it (not spruikers or any other term you want to use but everyday people who are actually hands on doing it) and not just read articles put up by anyone on the net or in a newspaper, you will be amazed. I have never yet bought a property (or any other investment) with the only way to make a profit being to "hope" for a capital gain. This is plain stupid. Even with PMs - if your only intention is to hold until prices increase then you are on a fast track to making a loss. If you doubt this - look at a Silver chart from 1965 until 2005. Other than the spike caused by the Hunt brothers in the very late 70s and very early 80s, pretty much no matter when you bought you would not have got much of an increase in your investment. If we are so focused on history - why do we never talk about this period? I know, I know - it's different this time!
malachii
Why do we assume that there is only 1 real estate market in Australia?
Why do we think that a few people (a buyers' strike by less than 1% of the population of this country never mind the o/s buyers that invest here) who can't get finance and aren't in a position to buy can make an impact on a huge market that effects pretty much every person in Australia? If you have ever been involved in a union strike - you'll understand that getting a few hundred people to actually act in a group way is like herding cats.
I'm not saying real estate is the best investment in the world just as I wouldn't say that any PM investment is going to be a guartanteed winner. Yes - I own property. I also own shares, rental vans, silver, gold, and several other investments. All behave differently at different times. I have bought property at the top of booms and at the bottom. I have bought shares and watched them crash. I have bought PMs and seen the price drop rapidly. Does this make them a bad investment? Only if the main purpose is to make a short term capital gain.
Don't buy real estate if the only way you know how to make a profit is to wait for a capital gain. Don't buy real estate if you are only seeing overpriced houses. Don't buy real estate if you can only get a 3% rental return and have to rely on negative gearing to make it make sense. This advice extends to a property boom or bust. If this is all you can see and all you know about then you are heading for trouble.
I used to train pilots to fly heavy jets for airlines. If a student came to me and said "There is a storm over Perth and I'm flying to Auckland and I only fly in good weather therefore I am not flying" I would stand them down immediately. Before everyone jumps on me and says this is too simplistic - think about it. If prices are booming in your chosen area - it doesn't mean this is the case elsewhere. It also doesn't mean that it is that way even on the whole of your street. If you are willing to learn from people who are doing it (not spruikers or any other term you want to use but everyday people who are actually hands on doing it) and not just read articles put up by anyone on the net or in a newspaper, you will be amazed. I have never yet bought a property (or any other investment) with the only way to make a profit being to "hope" for a capital gain. This is plain stupid. Even with PMs - if your only intention is to hold until prices increase then you are on a fast track to making a loss. If you doubt this - look at a Silver chart from 1965 until 2005. Other than the spike caused by the Hunt brothers in the very late 70s and very early 80s, pretty much no matter when you bought you would not have got much of an increase in your investment. If we are so focused on history - why do we never talk about this period? I know, I know - it's different this time!
malachii
BullionBull
New Member
malachii said:
Check. And Australia is full of 'em.
Say what? Don't buy an investment when the only way to make a profit is an increase in the price of the investment? What are you smoking? Everyone here is buying metals on this basis everyone.
Why else would you buy an investment property ... for the rental return? That's for mugs (see link above).
Maybe you'd listen to a top banker:
From http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/house-investors-to-lose-interest/story-e6frfh4f-1226031595268
BullionBull said:
Like I said - if this is all you can see then don't buy them. Australia is full of overpriced PM deals as well - does this mean I shouldn't buy silver?
BullionBull said:
If you read my previous message you would understand that this is the very reason you should NOT buy real estate - because you think that the "hope" of capital appreciation is the only way to make a profit. Capital appreciation is only one way to make a profit and not a very reliable one - not just in real estate but in all investments including silver.
I do buy property for rental return - but I get a rental return not a rental loss and no - you don't have to go to the back of beyond to get rental returns in excess of 3%. I may be a mug (been called worse and that's just on this forum) but I know the difference between investing in assets and gambling with assets.
I enjoy this forum as it makes me think - but to blindly say "real estate bad, PMs good" is not thinking nor understanding. You may as well throw your money at the casino or whatever floats your boat. Not every silver or bullion transaction is going to make you money - can you tell the difference between a good buy and a bad (and it's not all about price)? Why are you buying/selling? When are you going to buy/sell? What is your exit strategy if it does/does not do what you expect? If you can't answer these basics questions then don't invest because I will guarantee you that it will end in tears. A lot of people on here say "I'll get out just before the top". How will you know? How will you get out? I have watched and heard so many people say the very things I see on here in regard to PMs about real estate, shares, classic cars etc and very few actually do it because they are always waiting for something - a higher price, a previous price, when something does this or that or someone says this or that. To base your future on something that you can have no input or control into is gambling pure and simple.
To answer you first statement - no - some of us don't buy metals on the basis of a hoped for capital appreciation. If silver halved tomorrow I would be no more upset or excited that if it doubled. My investment strategy does not rely on capital appreciation - but it is a nice bonus if it happens.
I honestly hope you can say the same no matter what you are invested in.
malachii
silversurfer2010
New Member
Hahah buyers strike, when I saw that in the paper I guffawed 
How bloody stupid do you have to be to not see through that? Incredible
How bloody stupid do you have to be to not see through that? IncredibleBullionBull
New Member
Silversurfer2010, in fact the buyers' strike is a fait accompli. FHBs have largely deserted the market, as many media articles have attested. As the organisers of the strike state, the purpose of the campaign is simply to make the young people participating realise they are not alone in their decision.
So I'm not sure what you are guffawing about ... perhaps it was a donkey laugh?
So I'm not sure what you are guffawing about ... perhaps it was a donkey laugh?
BullionBull
New Member
@malachii, investing is about timing. Property has had a long bull run, and now is the time to take profits. Sell, sell, sell. Everything turns down eventually.
BullionBull said:
Absolutely - but this is only one piece of the puzzle.
This is an opinon only. What is your definition of a long bull run. Which market are you talking about? Even if you look at the fictional "Australian" market there have been downturns in the last 10 years. Just because one area has had a "long bull run" does not mean all areas have.
But why would I sell my IPs? They are returning me very good money and provide diversification. They are still meeting all of my requirements and by selling I will incur a lot of unnecessary expenses and taxes. On top of this there is no way I would be able to replace the quality of assets that I have at a decent price - even if the market corrected massively.
If you look at the USA you will see that some real estate crashed hard and others dropped by very little. If you have good quality assests in good areas you don't sell just because you think the "Australian" market will crash.
There are times to sell. For me this is not one of them. I am in the process of buying more real estate and I am comfortable with it even if the fictional "Australian" market crashed by 90%. I am not "hoping" for profit due to capital appreciation.
I don't really believe this but even still - if I have good quality assets that cannot be replaced easily and I'm not relying on capital appreciation - why would I care? I'll give you an example. I know someone who owns a really nice Holden Torana A9X hatch. He gets a lot of pleasure out of owing the car and it is a good investment A few years ago these could be picked up relatively cheaply. Now they are worth in excess of $150 000. If he sold the car and the market crashed - there is no guarantee that he could buy one back at a cheaper price, in as good condition as what this one is. Only part of his return is the capital growth so he would also forgo all the other returns that he gets (the pleasure of owning it, the fun he has driving, cleaning and maintaining the car, the looks and girls it attracts - although not as much as when we were in our early 20s!
) Even if he thought the market would crash - he would not think it worth selling his car because it ticks all his boxes - not just the capital appreciation box. When you understand what makes a good asset and how hard they are to find - you don't get rid of them for a few $$$ because you "think" they may be cheaper in the future.
malachii
BullionBull
New Member
Because the capital growth is over, and will be negative for many years.
You can get better returns elsewhere, even in a bank deposit. Didn't you read the article I referenced above?
BullionBull said:
And you'll provide a written guarantee of this? You'll also guarantee the other returns I get? Do you understand that the capital growth is NOT why I own these assets? There are many other financial returns they provide that cannot be matched by other investments. Not to be offensive but this statement shows a complete lack of understanding of asset investment, allocation, risk contol and financial returns.
Absolute rubbish! This is a statement with no knowledge of the returns I get or the increased risks associated with other assets.
As stated many times - I am not saying that you should go out and buy any old property and expect a good return. I am saying you need to educate yourself on how to find/create a good asset whether this be property, PMs or anything else. When you find one - you don't sell it just because you read an article from a bank manager that states "houses are going down". Understanding this separates sophisticated investors from sheeple.
malachii
BullionBull
New Member
Malachii, don't come crying to me when you are down 40-60% on your IPs in years to come.
Independent experts (IMF, The Economist, Jeremy Grantham, etc) are saying Oz property is well overpriced and due for a big correction, not me.
You are smarter than them. I say, good luck to you!
Independent experts (IMF, The Economist, Jeremy Grantham, etc) are saying Oz property is well overpriced and due for a big correction, not me.
You are smarter than them. I say, good luck to you!
If good IPs are down 40-60% in years to come I will be crying tears of joy!!
I think we aren't understanding each other. Other than the fact that I don't believe there is such a thing as an "Australian" market - I have no problem with the fact that some areas are massively overpriced and will correct. What I am trying to say is that there are investment techniques where this doesn't matter. Intelligence has nothing to do with it.
malachii
PS It's interesting that your independent experts are also saying PMs are a bad investment. Does this mean that you are staying away from holding PMs or do you consider yourself smarter than them?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/10/silver
http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters10/20-grantham3.php (final paragraph)
I think we aren't understanding each other. Other than the fact that I don't believe there is such a thing as an "Australian" market - I have no problem with the fact that some areas are massively overpriced and will correct. What I am trying to say is that there are investment techniques where this doesn't matter. Intelligence has nothing to do with it.
malachii
PS It's interesting that your independent experts are also saying PMs are a bad investment. Does this mean that you are staying away from holding PMs or do you consider yourself smarter than them?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/10/silver
http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters10/20-grantham3.php (final paragraph)
BullionBull
New Member
malachii said:
The Economist has many opinions on PMs, including bullish ones, eg
http://www.economist.com/node/17151109?story_id=17151109
But they are uniformly down on Oz property.
You can get a full education on this topic here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble