When the mania has run its course?

leo25 said:
i would suggest waiting until after the hard fork happens before putting any decent amount of money in. In the mean time see if you can buy like $50 worth from one of the guys here.

You will need more then a few satoshi, as the smallest fees these days is around $1.5 - $2 USD (depending on network load) Fees are based on byte size not amount. So sending $1 or $1000 will still cost you around $1.50+ in fees.
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Okie dokie. Anyone here wish to trade his bitcoin for some oz of silver?
 
Nabullion Dynamite said:
Hope you figured out your strategy fast haha. We are going down!!
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Still working on it. Pulled AUD out to cover my original investment. The last of it came out Thursday night which ended up being just hours before the first big sell-off.

Was planning to pull more out Friday morning via Tether (USDT) as a short term pause before going away for the weekend, but missed the over-bought opportunity and I don't think it's worth selling any more at the current level. Holding for now and very tempted to buy more for the next run up....
 
BuggedOut said:
Still working on it. Pulled AUD out to cover my original investment. The last of it came out Thursday night which ended up being just hours before the first big sell-off.

Was planning to pull more out Friday morning via Tether (USDT) as a short term pause before going away for the weekend, but missed the over-bought opportunity and I don't think it's worth selling any more at the current level. Holding for now and very tempted to buy more for the next run up....
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Would have been much easier for you to just say, "No idea what is happening, so sitting on the fence". lol
 
Because it would have been a lie.

I made another adjustment yesterday but couldn't be bothered writing about it. You wouldn't be interested anyway since it was based on some fundamentals analysis.
 
I appreciate the interest.

My take on the crypto-sphere is that different cryptos have different appeals or use cases that means they aren't always competing. Bitcoin is the oldest, most recognised and stable so its well placed as the "store of wealth" (like gold). Ethereum with its smart contracts innovation is positioned as a "development platform" for others to build applications on. Others like Litecoin and Dash have faster, cheaper transactions so may end up more useful for point of sale transactions. Then others again like Monero have the superior privacy tech.

I still think crypto mania has not yet reached its peak, but it's cooled a bit and I've come around to leo25s thinking in that the BIP148 User Activated Soft Fork is potentially going to dent the safety of Bitcoins "store of wealth" appeal in the short term. The more I've read about BIP148 the less I like the way its being done. It will create uncertainty and even substantial risk for those who buy Bitcoin while the competing Bitcoin blockchains are in play. My opinion is that those who want to avoid this risk will find a temporary haven to store wealth. The closest, safest option is Ethereum. If you have a look at the chart ETH is going from strength to strength and is now making new highs. Even by SilverSales playbook this is a strong technical signal.

So I shifted half my BTC holding into ETH at 0.9349 as a risk aversion diversification. Currently it's at 0.1020 after 24 hours so looking like a good move so far. I'm still cautiously bullish on BTC long term but I think it has a slight headwind until BIP148 is resolved or buried.
 
BuggedOut said:
I appreciate the interest.

My take on the crypto-sphere is that different cryptos have different appeals or use cases that means they aren't always competing. Bitcoin is the oldest, most recognised and stable so its well placed as the "store of wealth" (like gold).
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How on earth can a currency that can rise or fall by 25% or more on a given day or two (relative to 99.9999% of the currency used in the world for everyday things), and that being seen as just normal volatility , be a "store of wealth"?
 
It's all relative.

Yes, cryptos are volatile, etc, etc. But if you're going to have your money in there, then some cryptos are safer to keep your wealth than others.
 
BuggedOut said:
It's all relative.

Yes, cryptos are volatile, etc, etc. But if you're going to have your money in there, then some cryptos are safer to keep your wealth than others.
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Sure, but you made the deliberate comparison to gold.
Gold is an order of magnitude more stable than any crypto.

If you had to leave and forgot something now as a "store of wealth" for 20-30 years to pass onto your kids, what would you chose?
 
I agree gold is more stable. I didn't mean bitcoin = gold. I meant bitcoin could be a considered a store of wealth in the crypto world, like gold is considered a store of wealth in the traditional financial world.
 
Check out the pennant forming in ETH over the last 24 hours :-

ETHPennant20170601.png

Expect another sharp move later today when it breaks out of that pattern. I think the line of support is much stronger than the resistance (more touch points)
 
Yep. And they've recently added Ethereum to the exchanges and will be adding a handfull of various other alts over time.

Probaby a great opportunity to make big gains (or losses) with the further volatilty to come.

Edit. This was in response to wills post.

Agreed, super bullish on Ethereum near, mid and probably long term. Far more upside than BC. For now at least.
 
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SilverDJ said:
How on earth can a currency that can rise or fall by 25% or more on a given day or two (relative to 99.9999% of the currency used in the world for everyday things), and that being seen as just normal volatility , be a "store of wealth"?
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The caveat to this is that it will just keep rising with diminishing volatility until it is like any other currency. Long term trajectory is straight up until then, or failure. With speculative funds I see it as foolish not to punt on it. I wouldn't see crypto as any kind of long term store of wealth, yet. That would also be a foolish belief.
 
the last three days in btc/eth was the "buy the roumours sell the fact thing" with eth on china exchanges.
only bad thing is we will never be the ones to profit from because we are in only by the facts. always only insider thing. strong decision to go in eth @ 0.093xx. i felt uncomfortable @ 0.05
 
ETH going on a good run today. Up about 33% since I shifted some of my BTC holding over less than 2 weeks ago.

Seeing a few more references to BIP148 and August 1st so I think the market is slowly becoming aware of the risks. I am actually hoping to see a permanent split of BTC so the SegWit guys can have their own thing (and p1ss off!) and maybe the rest of the mainstream BTC players can then implement BU. To my eye BU is the solution that will really cement BTC in the role of "reserve currency" and "store of wealth" for the years to come. There are plenty of other cryptos that are better placed to perform the transactional function.

So I see a hiccup for BTC on either side of August 1, but wouldn't be surprised to see a big run up in the weeks before (mania) or after (euphoria) the BIP148 is resolved. Maybe even both with a crash in between :p

Still need to work on my final exit strategy but I'm not expecting to need it for a little while yet.
 
Until we get closer to what I think might be a final top I am looking more and more favorably upon Tether (USDT) as the safe haven option. It seems that since the back end of May it has traded back to parity and looks to be the preferred option of many professional traders - particularly on Poloniex.

One of the things I noticed prior to the big sell-off in late may was that (despite the volume and volatility increases) the price of Tether was spiking higher than $1 USD and also the price of Bitcoin on Poloniex was trading at a significant discount to the fiat exchanges (yes, these things are related bit it was overdone). What I believe was happenning was pro traders on Poloniex were cashing into USDT out prior to the top.

Have a look at this chart of the Tether price :-

Tether20170613.png

Now compare it to the Bitcoin price :-

Bitcoin20170613.png

You can see that the Tether price (green) started spiking up hours before the top in the Bitcoin price. You can also see that the high Tether reached at 1.17 also coincided with the subsequent low of Bitcoin. We have a similar run up in Tether prior to the more recent (smaller) sell-off in both BTC and ETH, with the big spike coinciding with the low.

So, among other things, I think it is worth keeping an eye on the price of Tether as a potential leading indicator to a sell-off occurring. I do believe that it is the "cash out" option preferred by the crypto pros. While I do think it has some inherent risks with redemption and holding on an exchange, it looks to be a good option for a short term stint on the sidelines when things get a bit crazy.

Does anyone have any experience with Tether that they can share? (wallets? fiat redemption?)
 
ETH has been on a great run but I think it's time to cash some out. An 81% return after just over 2 weeks is just too good to pass up.

Reckon BTC might struggling a bit with the BIP148 headwind and I've diversified a bit more of my BTC holding into DASH and Monero. Two other cryptos that might be popular alternatives if BTC gets in trouble ahead of August 1 now that ETH already seems to have been over-bought.

I'm also having a dabble with holding some funds in Tether while I wait to see if ETH will correct. Wanted to get off the Poloniex exchange so am trying out the web wallet at :-

https://wallet.tether.to

I'm not entirely comfortable with it, but at least I don't have all my eggs in the basket ;)
 
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