SilverSanchez
Active Member
Also if silver did get to $4 probably the only way you could buy it for that little is on the futures exchange.
Whats your plan if silver goes to $4 oz?
- Thread starter errol43
- Start date
I dont have the answer ..but a lot of the reason given to silver being well supported and possibly in short supply is the fact of industrial demand...if there is any serious downturn many of the industries that go to make up this industrial demand will also have a down turn and not need to buy as much silver....
you need fiat to buy silver and if people / investors lose their fiat either through losing a job or having their portfolio savaged by a large downturn in the markets they lose their ability to buy silver ........especially if it were to increases in value.
in a currency collapses people really lose their ability to buy PM's ..look at India now..gold sales are dropping off markedly as the cost of gold in Rupees is making gold acquisition all but impossible for the vast majority .
these points are vexing issues that have me puzzled.as to how big increases in the price of silver is possible..
your thoughts appreciated.
you need fiat to buy silver and if people / investors lose their fiat either through losing a job or having their portfolio savaged by a large downturn in the markets they lose their ability to buy silver ........especially if it were to increases in value.
in a currency collapses people really lose their ability to buy PM's ..look at India now..gold sales are dropping off markedly as the cost of gold in Rupees is making gold acquisition all but impossible for the vast majority .
these points are vexing issues that have me puzzled.as to how big increases in the price of silver is possible..
your thoughts appreciated.
A few points:
1) US$4 is not A$4 - At US$8 in '08 we only hit A$16. You always have to consider the exchange rate issues.
2) Everything else being equal US$4 would be very short lived and would only be a transient anomoly, so it would be time to back up the truck and load the boats. What happened in the 2008 was the finaical markets capsized, large scale investors had to sell to cover losses in other areas and price rebounded to around US$20 pretty quickly.
1) US$4 is not A$4 - At US$8 in '08 we only hit A$16. You always have to consider the exchange rate issues.
2) Everything else being equal US$4 would be very short lived and would only be a transient anomoly, so it would be time to back up the truck and load the boats. What happened in the 2008 was the finaical markets capsized, large scale investors had to sell to cover losses in other areas and price rebounded to around US$20 pretty quickly.
Barbarian At The Gate
New Member
IF YOU THINK THE PRICE OF SILVER IS GOING TO $4 BUCKS YOU ARE DREAMING.
Silverbullet08
New Member
....I wouldnt be buying 100s of ozs per hit.... id be buying 1000s of 
BrickInTheWall
Member
If silver goes to either $4 or $250 (to da moon !!), the financial and economic landscapes are probably going to be pretty ugly.
Silver to $4 implies the debt overhang has crushed everyone, whereas $250 would indicate that the inflation from money printing has got out of control. Both scenarios are possible, and the truth is no-one really knows how it will play out.
This is a good reason to have a combination of fiat cash as well as silver / gold ... as a hedge for both scenarios.
I certainly agree with some of the other comments ... I'd be buying up as much silver as I could at $4 ... as I would expect that either insane money printing, or a hard currency would be just around the corner.
Silver to $4 implies the debt overhang has crushed everyone, whereas $250 would indicate that the inflation from money printing has got out of control. Both scenarios are possible, and the truth is no-one really knows how it will play out.
This is a good reason to have a combination of fiat cash as well as silver / gold ... as a hedge for both scenarios.
I certainly agree with some of the other comments ... I'd be buying up as much silver as I could at $4 ... as I would expect that either insane money printing, or a hard currency would be just around the corner.
To good to be true caveathotel 46 said:SilverSanchez said:If anyone can extract, refine and mint a bar for $4 they diserve to go out of business
i think that would be an awesome company to own, they deserve to be in business for being the best
i would still be a buyer errol.
Seriously though if silver went to $4 we would be in big trouble and I would be investing in Brass and lead... and popcorn
hilaire9 said:
Well, with that much weight, at least you'll sink straight to the bottom of the bay and stay there.
Every bridge jumper should have an opportunity to be shown photos of floater corpses. Few things fouler than wet 2-week old dead human.
Barbarian At The Gate
New Member
What is this forum turning into?
First we have this (silver at $250) : http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-28619-will-there-be-any-ss-stackers-if-price-goes-to-250.html,
And then he speculates about $4 silver.
WHICH ONE IS IT????
AM I SUPPOSED TO TAKE THESE SPECULATIONS SERIOUSLY?
Surely people have better things to do with their time.
Instead of speculating, do some research and you might find how ridiculous a notional value of $4 for silver really is (less so the previous speculation).
And if by some flipping miracle silver did go to $4, what would the price of gold be??????
And what on God's green earth would cause these things to happen? Indebted nations and technically insolvent banks run by corrupt politicians, banksters, and the counterfeiting ways of Reserve Banks, suddenly doing the exact opposite of what it is they've been doing?
NO MORE DEBT???? (yeah, right)
NO MORE CORRUPTION???? (as if, where money and blackmail is involved, the political world is totally and irreversibly corrupted)
NO MORE ILLEGALITIES????? (no one goes to prison, so why would they stop??)
NO MORE IMMORALITIES???? (yeah, these people were "born" lily white)
I think I just saw a pig fly overhead.
Yeah, KEEP DREAMING.
First we have this (silver at $250) : http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-28619-will-there-be-any-ss-stackers-if-price-goes-to-250.html,
And then he speculates about $4 silver.
WHICH ONE IS IT????
AM I SUPPOSED TO TAKE THESE SPECULATIONS SERIOUSLY?
Surely people have better things to do with their time.
Instead of speculating, do some research and you might find how ridiculous a notional value of $4 for silver really is (less so the previous speculation).
And if by some flipping miracle silver did go to $4, what would the price of gold be??????
And what on God's green earth would cause these things to happen? Indebted nations and technically insolvent banks run by corrupt politicians, banksters, and the counterfeiting ways of Reserve Banks, suddenly doing the exact opposite of what it is they've been doing?
NO MORE DEBT???? (yeah, right)
NO MORE CORRUPTION???? (as if, where money and blackmail is involved, the political world is totally and irreversibly corrupted)
NO MORE ILLEGALITIES????? (no one goes to prison, so why would they stop??)
NO MORE IMMORALITIES???? (yeah, these people were "born" lily white)
I think I just saw a pig fly overhead.
Yeah, KEEP DREAMING.
Build a fort ? I have only got enough to build a BBQKMGeneral said:errol43 said:
Build a fort out of silver
Honestly I try to do it now, but my stack not big enough and PM 10oz bars aren't really a stable building material. A mouse could just fit in there, but if it did it would be crushed when the thing fell down
Ghost Story
Active Member
buying as much as i can at current prices
its flat lining and could go on for years like this but then it will brake out up i hope, i am happy to stack at this price for a few years.
its flat lining and could go on for years like this but then it will brake out up i hope, i am happy to stack at this price for a few years.
Photonaware
Active Member
At $4 an ounce you wouldn't be able to buy it.
No-one would be selling and any bullion that reached the market would have sold instantly to institutional big players. Gold price might be $250 and you wouldn't be able to buy that either.
If anyone is interested in selling today at $10 to limit their losses in this armagedon crash then I might be interested in buying 50 kg.
No-one would be selling and any bullion that reached the market would have sold instantly to institutional big players. Gold price might be $250 and you wouldn't be able to buy that either.
If anyone is interested in selling today at $10 to limit their losses in this armagedon crash then I might be interested in buying 50 kg.
Some of the posts seem to think that I have a lot to learn and they may well be right, But, I tell you one thing, I have done some homework on silver prices by talking to a silver trader who has been in the business of trading silver and gold for over 30years..He was trading when the Hunt Brothers were buying up big. Went from $4 to $50 in very short time then back to $4..A few financial gurus also bought heavily into silver in and around 2000 when the price was $4 to $6.
All I'm saying is history can repeat itself and it could happen again or then it could go past $50 and never return.
When I made the threads about $4 and $250, it was like a best and worst case scenario. It was not like I was having 2 bob each way but I saw it as a means of maybe having a discussion to see how other SS members thought on these prices on a cold and wet weekend.
I wasn't smart enough then and it looks like I am not the only one that didn't stack at $4 oz.
Oh. So is it really different this time? I think it might be as this time the world is in a financial mess!
Regards Errol 43
All I'm saying is history can repeat itself and it could happen again or then it could go past $50 and never return.
When I made the threads about $4 and $250, it was like a best and worst case scenario. It was not like I was having 2 bob each way but I saw it as a means of maybe having a discussion to see how other SS members thought on these prices on a cold and wet weekend.
I wasn't smart enough then and it looks like I am not the only one that didn't stack at $4 oz.
Oh. So is it really different this time? I think it might be as this time the world is in a financial mess!
Regards Errol 43
Barbarian At The Gate
New Member
It's got absolutely nothing to do with throwing a HISSSSSSY FITTTT!!!!!
Show me a sliver of sound, logical literature anywhere which points to $4 silver???
It's like me saying what would you do, and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, BHP going to 3 cents? Ain't going to happen.
It's like me saying what would you do, and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, after a life-time of outrageous lies, the great Communist dictator, Obamalini, speaking the truth? Ain't going to happen.
It's like me saying what would you do. and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, organized banking syndicates voluntarily waiving yearly bonuses at the same time as lending customer deposits/free Federal Reserve money, to small businesses, as opposed to betting on black at the derivatives casino. Ain't going to happen.
If you want to engage in constructive conversation, in my opinion, and do so without hedging one's bets, best to KEEP IT REAL =)
Show me a sliver of sound, logical literature anywhere which points to $4 silver???
It's like me saying what would you do, and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, BHP going to 3 cents? Ain't going to happen.
It's like me saying what would you do, and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, after a life-time of outrageous lies, the great Communist dictator, Obamalini, speaking the truth? Ain't going to happen.
It's like me saying what would you do. and what would be the catalyst for, in the next 12-24 months, organized banking syndicates voluntarily waiving yearly bonuses at the same time as lending customer deposits/free Federal Reserve money, to small businesses, as opposed to betting on black at the derivatives casino. Ain't going to happen.
If you want to engage in constructive conversation, in my opinion, and do so without hedging one's bets, best to KEEP IT REAL =)
At $4 an ounce paper Silver I figure the premium would be about $20 so you would be paying $24 an ounce for the stuff but probably wont be able to buy it.
Many miners are locking in deals with European banks that are willing to buy over spot at the current spot price just to secure delivery of the metal in the coming moths, who knows what they would do at $4 an ounce. We would be talking about the mother of all Backwardations on the futures market, mean while mines would be shutting down left right and center, some might try raising capital by issuing more shares or selling company private bonds to see through the storm but at that level of Deflation you are talking a severe liquidity crisis. $4 is just not a price you could mathematically return too without staring down the barrel of a global deflationary collapse. The only scenario I could see that would trigger REAL $4 an ounce Silver, so not just paper but physical as well would be for Central Banks globally to lift interest rates in unison, perhaps to above 20% p.a. to protect all fiat. It would trigger a modern day fire sale in the private sector and bankruptcy of the governments. Majority of all peoples possessions would be for sale but little to no buyers around meaning defaults on loans and will lead to massive unemployment, leading to crime and later to anarchy.
You ask what is my plan at $4 per ounce. It would be to crawl into a bunker with stock piles of food and arms and spark up the ham radio and listen to the devastation unfold above ground.
Many miners are locking in deals with European banks that are willing to buy over spot at the current spot price just to secure delivery of the metal in the coming moths, who knows what they would do at $4 an ounce. We would be talking about the mother of all Backwardations on the futures market, mean while mines would be shutting down left right and center, some might try raising capital by issuing more shares or selling company private bonds to see through the storm but at that level of Deflation you are talking a severe liquidity crisis. $4 is just not a price you could mathematically return too without staring down the barrel of a global deflationary collapse. The only scenario I could see that would trigger REAL $4 an ounce Silver, so not just paper but physical as well would be for Central Banks globally to lift interest rates in unison, perhaps to above 20% p.a. to protect all fiat. It would trigger a modern day fire sale in the private sector and bankruptcy of the governments. Majority of all peoples possessions would be for sale but little to no buyers around meaning defaults on loans and will lead to massive unemployment, leading to crime and later to anarchy.
You ask what is my plan at $4 per ounce. It would be to crawl into a bunker with stock piles of food and arms and spark up the ham radio and listen to the devastation unfold above ground.