What's the future of silver look like to you?
- Thread starter Coins A-Z
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SlyGuy
Active Member
It sure did go sideways from 1980-2000. And it went sideways for many long periods throughout history before that. There is nothing it "can't" do...
The PM market (and all other ones) can do whatever buying and selling and supply dictates.
JOHNLGALT
Well-Known Member
"The PM market (and all other ones) can do whatever buying and selling and supply dictates."
Yeah, sure, just don't mention the MaNiPuLaTiOn from your part of the world.
Anyway, Sterling has enough popcorn to last that out.
p.s. Sterling has been residing in America recently so he has picked up the popcorn habit.
Yeah, sure, just don't mention the MaNiPuLaTiOn from your part of the world.
Anyway, Sterling has enough popcorn to last that out.
p.s. Sterling has been residing in America recently so he has picked up the popcorn habit.
Had been dumping my long held stocks since September to offset stock gains against silver losses and to shore up my gsr. But because of the bearish talk on silver, I didn’t dump everything. Now I lost nearly 30% on the remaining stock I didn’t dump. Too late to sell now so might as well wait for the next bear rally.
Why didn’t the anal-ysts post bearish articles on stocks like they slam down silver? This is why it is never good to just read their reports. For all you know, they could be buying while slamming it down, or vice versa - selling stocks (or secretly shorting) while promoting them.
We can start by looking at the graph above. Reference below.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
That does not really help us as the silverinstitute figures record a net deficit between supply and demand for the ten years tabulated, though the spread is the smallest in 2017 and that may explain current price weakness.
In short, the near future of silver likely lies in its electrochemical industrial applications, consumer electrical goods, with gains in the solar panel industry.
Photovoltaic demand is up and there is no sign of slowing down. The one area that is down is *stackers*. Bar and bullion stackers had their third lowest level last year out of the last ten. The worst was in 2010 interestingly, right before the big run up in 2011. 2015 was the year of the stacker and this was when the price was quite low. Maybe the market is a bit jaded now.
However, the future is likely in industrial electronics and demand is actually increasing. Photovoltaics is up about 40% on 6 years ago.
Mine production is up and total supply stable, in contrast to all the snake oil from the silver newsletter shills. There is no sign of peak silver and really, there is no logic behind the idea, as demand will unleash technology to bring new supply to the market and use existing silver more efficiently. This is the nature of mankind.
ETFs stocked up in 2012 and 2016, according to the graph. Interpretation would require more comprehension of the relevant issues for them than I have. One thing to notice is the big ETF build in 3 consecutive years before the price spike in 2011.
So all up, stackers are not stacking according to this table, which is reflected in low spreads now, but solar panels are an increasing market share of the total demand, but not enough to offset the drop off.
Interesting to see that the demand for coins and bars peaked in 2015 when silver prices were low, although premiums were higher than today (from my understanding). So stackers did not stop stacking immediately after prices plunged in 2012. The following year, demand for coins and bars plunged by 30% in 2016. What happened in 2016?
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Bitcoin is one of the reason, but Bitcoin didn't really catch on until 2017 so it appears to be a year earlier.
All the pushers have gone over to cryptos. The remaining few silver diehards left have also given up on silver lately.
In my opinion, cryptos are a legal minefield. How do we know the bids on the exchanges are real? How do we know the coins created are real? If there's fraud, anyone who sold through the exchanges even 1-2 years ago, if the transaction is not legitimate, the buyer may have legal avenues to garner the sales proceed from the seller.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/08/c_137658537.htm
Large silver deposit discovered in central China
Source: Xinhua| 2018-12-08 08:26:10|Editor: Yang Yi
ZHENGZHOU, Dec. 8 (Xinhua) -- Geologists in central China's Henan Province have discovered a large silver deposit with estimated reserves of at least 1,500 tonnes.
Located in Luoning County, the deposit is part of the Zhonghe deposit area, which boasts 280,000 tonnes of lead and 320,000 tonnes of zinc, according to the Henan Bureau of Geo-exploration & Mineral Development.
The find follows the discovery of a large silver deposit with reserves of 2,661 tonnes in the province's Tongbai County.
Large silver deposit discovered in central China
Source: Xinhua| 2018-12-08 08:26:10|Editor: Yang Yi
ZHENGZHOU, Dec. 8 (Xinhua) -- Geologists in central China's Henan Province have discovered a large silver deposit with estimated reserves of at least 1,500 tonnes.
Located in Luoning County, the deposit is part of the Zhonghe deposit area, which boasts 280,000 tonnes of lead and 320,000 tonnes of zinc, according to the Henan Bureau of Geo-exploration & Mineral Development.
The find follows the discovery of a large silver deposit with reserves of 2,661 tonnes in the province's Tongbai County.
Krakked789
Well-Known Member
Silver production per year is only 1 billion ounces. At $5, it costs only $5 billion to buy all the silver that is produced, and $20 billion to buy all the silver that people are holding, assuming if everyone agrees to sell it for $5/oz.
Krakked789
Well-Known Member
True. I never said it was likely. But it IS possible.
ZaidaBoBaida
Member
Random dumb question: Apmex is making a big deal out of the fact that ASEs are sold out at the US Mint. Here's my question: So what? Won't they just strike more, or have they stuck the maximum amount they're allowed to do for the year?
Silver on it's own is not worth mining and is a by product of mining for base metals and gold. The world's biggest consumption of base metals goes into building loss making high speed trains projects in China and ghost towns, both of which are not sustainable in the long run. Once it is no longer possible finance these mega projects, to sustain jobs, the reverse will happen - demolishing unused buildings and recovering the scrap copper and iron in them.
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Those ghost towns will be fully populated, either at premium like millions per apartment in Shenzen or at $1 per apartment.
Shenzen was a ghost town, but now equal Seoul or Singapore for mid range apartment prizes.
All those ghost town will be be full of people.
The ghost town developers will fold out but eventually they need to pay back the loans. When it does... be it, USA, Australia, Singapore or China it is universal the liquidators sell to highest bidder.
I don't know how this will end up. In Malaysia and Indonesia, you can see a lot of half completed buildings dated 1997 the last Asian financial crisis. I suppose that the majority of empty apartments in China are owned by local government officials, companies owned by local governments. If Xi is strong enough, maybe he can mandate that all apartments left empty for more than X years be confiscated by the central government.
Sounds terrible but something of similar scale happened in Singapore during the 70s up till early 80s when the government mandatorily acquired large pieces of land from land owners for small compensation. The total size of land acquired from private hands was equivalent to 1/3 of the entire land area of Singapore then.
The land acquired were used to build industrial parks and public housing apartments which ironically today, many of which are sold to new migrants from China for like $150-$400k a unit. They can't afford to buy their home in China, so they migrate to Singapore.
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