Argentum said:
pirocco i went to the link of cme you posted and i'm trying to find the 4.5 Moz you have as your signature post. Can you please explain how the numbers in the signature post and cme link dont match
The numbers in my signature are unrelated to the Comex depositories stocks/inventory of this topic.
The numbers represent the amount gold 'ordered' as a future contract. I sometimes name it the Comex total net position.
They are based on the CTFC Commitment Of Traders Report, weekly released.
See my old Mundus Argentum topic.
This is the last report:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm scroll to the gold section.
These are the historical ones:
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm
This is how I calculate the amount gold, ex, the last COT report of 14/01/2014:
14/01/2014
45255 $1239.70
[SUPPLY SIDE]
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 101424 Short 95297 Net: 6127
SwapDealer Long 52669 Short 104051 Net: -51382
[DEMAND SIDE]
ManagedMoney Long 104303 Short 76033 Net: 28270
OtherReportables Long 41554 Short 25811 Net: 15743
SmallTraders Long 37217 Short 35975 Net: 1242
The names on the left are the Trader Classes.
That bold tagged number is what I calculate, it's here 45255 contracts, each 100 ounces gold, so 45255 x 100 = 4,5 Moz gold.
The calculation goes like this, for each market side (supply and demand):
All longs minus all shorts gives the total net position:
For the SUPPLY SIDE:
101424+52669-95297-104051=-45255 contracts as total net position, so the supply side is 4,5 Moz gold SHORT.
For the DEMAND SIDE:
104303+41554+37217-76033-25811-35975=+45255 contracts as total net position, so the demand side is 4,5 Moz gold LONG.
Both total net positions should be equal and inverted, since every contract requires a seller and a buyer.
This 45255 contracts Comex position is also available on finviz.com, under every price chart:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1
The green trend line is the SUPPLY SIDE (finviz.com Commercial Hedgers) being COT reports Trader Classes "Producer/Merchant/Processor/User" + "SwapDealer")
The red trend line is DEMAND SIDE part 1 (finviz.com Large Traders) being the COT reports Trader Classes "ManagedMoney" + "OtherReportables".
The blue trend line is DEMAND SIDE part 2 (finviz.com Small Traders) being the COT reports Trader Class "Nonreportable Positions"
Since most of the contracts don't end in delivery of the gold (the futures market is more of a risk management environment, if you have a stock of 1000 ounces gold and you don't want to suffer from price drops, you can hedge it with 10 short positions of 100 ounces. IF the price indeed drops, your Comex short position account will accumulate dollars, that undo the less dollars (due to the dropped price) you receive for your 1000 ounces stock. Of course, IF the price rises, your Comex account will lose dollars, that undo the extra dollars (due to the risen price) you receive for your 1000 ounces stock. So you gain nor lose. If you would want to speculate abit, you could for ex hedge only 500 of your 1000 ounces stock, so that in case of a price increase, not all your profits are lost due to the short position. And vice versa, the chance on profit implies the chance on losses, in case price goes the other than the hoped for direction.
The Comex depositories are merely close-to market stocks, unrelated to the Comex contracts/positions. The stockpiled gold ofcourse can be used for the few futures market positions that
do end up in delivery. For the rest, alot of the gold there is just electronically labeled and relabeled, according to ownership and Registered or Eligible. It can be used to settle futures contracts, but without delivery that is just an electronic change with the gold untouched/unmoved.
