What price, physical?

fishball said:
pmstacker said:
You know whats funny, the paper price and the physical price once decoupled in the past too. It was around the time the hunt brothers tried to home run the silver market, some may have heard of it ;) ! Funny thing was at the time dealers wouldnt give you spot when you sold physical and you didnt have to pay 50 for the physical. Yes, It was decoupled but physical silver was actually traded for less ....

them are the facts ... there was a time when places like KJC was backed up with silver and wouldnt give spot when you sold back to them (usually they do) cause they had way to many sellers.
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Because the Hunt Brothers held long positions and JPM are holding short positions.
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Hi mate :)

Could be missing something here by why would that matter ?!
 
southerncross said:
Recalcitrant said:
I would trade my prized non depreciating NSX based on todays spot for 45 1kg bars "seriously" . But would not trade my Dog in front for any amount!! Thats how its going to be, what is a accurate pricing guide these days?

http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o255/sweetchuckzx/Pup-1.jpg
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MMM Your really Batman arent you ? Nice try with the colour change on the Car, but the Batdog is a dead giveaway .:P
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Batman ?? Why does that name ring a bell ?? NSXprime forum ? :/
 
Szag said:
A free market dependent on nothing more than supply and demand, yes i understand. But people/industry still need something to base what they buy or sell for? It can't be word of mouth. There would be little certainty that anyone would be trading at a fair price. Does one just look at a trading platform and just averages the trade prices? APMEX?
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i think it would become a bit like antiques. There is a general rough consensus on what make an antique valuable, but 10 different dealers will give different appraisals for the same item. Some antique stores are ridiculously overpriced, and some places you can get bargains. An antique centre near me has a bunch of 1oz BU kooks , 2006-2009 for $100 each in a glass cabinet. Ridiculous. But at the same place i got a bunch of predecimal below spot from a different dealer, same centre.
 
I am little bit worried who will buy our coins and bars , just to keep it at home, when paper silver is much easier and cheaper to handle, we can only sell it to silver stackers,but not to industry directly, so i expect price of physical to be determinate only by industry demand,IMHO price of physical will go done until industry demands delepted the supply or/if silver with other PM became base for new world currency.
 
pmstacker said:
fishball said:
pmstacker said:
You know whats funny, the paper price and the physical price once decoupled in the past too. It was around the time the hunt brothers tried to home run the silver market, some may have heard of it ;) ! Funny thing was at the time dealers wouldnt give you spot when you sold physical and you didnt have to pay 50 for the physical. Yes, It was decoupled but physical silver was actually traded for less ....

them are the facts ... there was a time when places like KJC was backed up with silver and wouldnt give spot when you sold back to them (usually they do) cause they had way to many sellers.
Click to expand...

Because the Hunt Brothers held long positions and JPM are holding short positions.
Click to expand...


Hi mate :)

Could be missing something here by why would that matter ?!
Click to expand...

Think of our side as Hunt Brothers and the other side as JPM. Basically what happened was they couldn't sustain their side due to margins increasing and regulations and the other side won.

The price drop was due to a flood of people trying to sell silverware/junk silver to dealers at $40+ as well as the government coming out to quench the demand by using their silver reserves.

Now that the gov has no reserves they can't do jack :p. That and JPM's short positions means that they will have to buy a lot of physical to close their positions or suffer a huge loss.

So 2 scenarios can happen now.

1. Silver drops below $36 USD and JPM makes a huge paper profit on their shorts. We win by getting more physical silver at low prices.
2. Silver rises over $36 USD and JPM has to cover their short position by buying physical silver OR paying in fiat money. We win by having our physical silver price appreciate due to the increase in demand by JPM OR we win because JPM has to print more money via Bernanke to cover their positions which means our silver will be worth more relative to the fiat.

I'm not sure what I'm talking about now, way too tired rofl but that's what I was trying to say ..... I think!
 
fishball said:
pmstacker said:
fishball said:
Because the Hunt Brothers held long positions and JPM are holding short positions.
Click to expand...


Hi mate :)

Could be missing something here by why would that matter ?!
Click to expand...

Think of our side as Hunt Brothers and the other side as JPM. Basically what happened was they couldn't sustain their side due to margins increasing and regulations and the other side won.

The price drop was due to a flood of people trying to sell silverware/junk silver to dealers at $40+ as well as the government coming out to quench the demand by using their silver reserves.

Now that the gov has no reserves they can't do jack :p. That and JPM's short positions means that they will have to buy a lot of physical to close their positions or suffer a huge loss.

So 2 scenarios can happen now.

1. Silver drops below $36 USD and JPM makes a huge paper profit on their shorts. We win by getting more physical silver at low prices.
2. Silver rises over $36 USD and JPM has to cover their short position by buying physical silver OR paying in fiat money. We win by having our physical silver price appreciate due to the increase in demand by JPM OR we win because JPM has to print more money via Bernanke to cover their positions which means our silver will be worth more relative to the fiat.

I'm not sure what I'm talking about now, way too tired rofl but that's what I was trying to say ..... I think!
Click to expand...


Haha ok just logical reasoning, i thought there was a more quantitative reasoning behind it. Well its not much different really now then the hunt brothers era. See this board is like an echo chamber of sorts, just because everyone here thinks its good to hold and average down doesn't mean thats necessarily the right thing to do or the thing that everyone in the greater community of metal investing is doing. When silver was in its super bull a few weeks ago, i did a bit of a litmus test and called up a few of the bullion and coin dealers who i knew gave spot for buy back. One of them is KJC if you negotiate, i had a friend who always buys and sells to them and has always gotten spot so i knew if they didnt give spot then the REAL reason is the have had to many sellers and backed up to much with sellers.

Usually the case is, when you sell and metal dealer pays you spot they already have a buyer and simply match you up, so they want it taken of you as fast as possible cause they want to make the premium as someone is already at their door step ready to take the silver away. The time that the dealers dont take it of you at spot is when they cant match your silver/gold with another buyer and if they have to sell to a bulk buyer (say some smeltering place or whatever, some one who will always take the silver/gold) they need to sell even cheaper then spot so they buy of you AT alot under spot. So it really isnt much different then before ...

Its pretty easy, when prices rise people simply just want to take profit and buy back in when it gets cheaper again, or find the next big trade. Basically if you end up with more money or more silver then you started of with you have done a good job with the investment, if you have lost value within the term that you wanted to make money its a blunder, if your a long term holder then i guess thats fine. It could be that everyone who is doing selling is wrong (its a risk) but its starting to look like the right decision :)
 
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