What do you make of this chart?

P

Preciousmetal

New Member
What do you make of this chart?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/07/comex-deliverable-silver-warehouse.html

Is this the only inventory chart we should be looking at? Is there another aspect we need to know about, in order to balance the equation here, because if this is the only inventory chart that matters, in reality, the COMEX is cooked, and this looks like it could end within half a year or so! But I do know that sometimes, we silver stackers can speak about what is in our favour, and leave out what doesn't work in our favour, while our story is so positive, that we don't need to do that...

Also, what do you think the price implications are of a COMEX default? 2 times, 5 times, 10 times, 20 times the price?
 
Not surprised they were offering 80% premium's for not taking physical delivery recently...are you?

Do you think the SLV has 309,738,781 ounces? I would believe PSLV inventory but don't know of any auditing for SLV. Anyone like to comment?

As you made mention, this figure claimed by SLV would be consumed in approx a year or less based mining deficit of 300M oz being required by the market to meet demand.
 
Thanks for your reply, AG.

I find the whole digital market very opaque and difficult to understand, especially since I do not use it as an investment vehicle. Perhaps you could explain the difference between the SLV (which I know is an ETF) and the COMEX, as well as any relationship that mught exist between them.

Thanks.
 
I'm also confused about things (G'Day to all on these forums, found them recently and have lurked, first post from me).

I hear and read around various sites that we (mankind), have been using silver in recent years (decades?) in amounts greater than we produce or mine it. It is argued, therefore, that we are - in a sense - dipping into the reserve, or using previously mined and stored silver to make up this shortfall. As a result of this, I read and hear from many places that usable, above ground silver is a shrinking commodity and so on.

Then I look at the following: http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_silver.html (my apologies if linking this here is against any rule!)

To my reading of those charts, in 2009, we had 810m (approx) ounces of silver available for consumption, yet only 640m (approx) was demanded. That seems to leave a surplus of 170m ounces for that year alone.

This does not match the information that I am reading on other sites and in other places, hence, if someone can shed some light on this, I'd be wiser, and very appreciative!
 
I believe that they are falsely including the ETF inventories for these figures, which means that they are counting silver that is already being bought (supposedly).

Perhaps others can share some more detailed insight on this matter.
 
Midnight Man said:
I'm also confused about things (G'Day to all on these forums, found them recently and have lurked, first post from me).

I hear and read around various sites that we (mankind), have been using silver in recent years (decades?) in amounts greater than we produce or mine it. It is argued, therefore, that we are - in a sense - dipping into the reserve, or using previously mined and stored silver to make up this shortfall. As a result of this, I read and hear from many places that usable, above ground silver is a shrinking commodity and so on.

Then I look at the following: http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_silver.html (my apologies if linking this here is against any rule!)

To my reading of those charts, in 2009, we had 810m (approx) ounces of silver available for consumption, yet only 640m (approx) was demanded. That seems to leave a surplus of 170m ounces for that year alone.

This does not match the information that I am reading on other sites and in other places, hence, if someone can shed some light on this, I'd be wiser, and very appreciative!
Click to expand...
Welcome Midnight Man
What happened to you? Must be at least 5 years since you dropped off the radar on the Kitco forums.
 
Preciousmetal said:
Thanks for your reply, AG.

I find the whole digital market very opaque and difficult to understand, especially since I do not use it as an investment vehicle. Perhaps you could explain the difference between the SLV (which I know is an ETF) and the COMEX, as well as any relationship that mught exist between them.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Well thats opening 'a can of whoopie' - meaning BullShyte (you will need to translate that last word for yourself but as a start 'complete trouble')

First of all, your 100% right with 'very opaque and difficult to understand' - that just the way they like it :) I still have not managed to completely read the SLV contract but includes parts like 'an investment in SLV is likeand investment in silver' or 'the price of SLV may differ to the price of physical silver'...WFT? If it's backed by physical then how could it be 'like' or ' differ'? because the fund isn't backed by physical...otherwise statements like these wouldn't be required...want backed ETF? check PSLV - then read up on the hardship they went through to get this setup and which continue's to almost every week.oddly the SLV doesn't seem to have the same issues?

Even more pleased to hear 'I do not use it as an investment vehicle' - neither should anyone who isn't day trading in the metals. PSLV is more preferable if you like this type of thing.

Perhaps you could explain the difference between the SLV (which I know is an ETF) and the COMEX, as well as any relationship that might exist between them.
Click to expand...

Ok I'm no expert but will start slowly. The SLV (as you mentioned) is an EFT (Electronically Traded Fund) so all the normal Long (buy)/Short(sell) and Stops(predeterminded point to sell) can be set. VERY USEFUL FOR A DAY TRADER (which I am not) - basically like a standard share on an exchange.

COMEX is a Futures market - meaning to set a long/short/option(fixed price) to buy a commodity some time in the future. Each transaction is based on a contract of a pre determined amount (eg Ag=5000oz, Au=100oz and crude=1000 barrels from memory?) Great for companies like Airlines who need to secure fuel (eg crude) in the future (say in 6 months) to calculate the cost per ticket before selling to the public. However unlike the Airline, who will almost always take delivery, not all 'punters' do (hence speculators) - ever wondered what you would do with a 1000 barrels of crude delivered to your residence? got a forklift ready? hazardous zoned location? blah blah...you get the idea...

So no relationship from my understanding between the two ..simply two devils you don't want to make a deal with...perhaps they have that in common?

I know this is very brief ,but the rest is available through out various forums/blogs/etc including this one...I hope this will be a suitable start to your answer...
 
Think of all the used motor oil the auto industry goes through. Where does all that waste oil go from cars having their motor oil changed? Recycled? Refined?
Some places will not even accept waste oil or used tyres without a surcharge if at all. Crazy ....
 
Midnight Man, The silver institute uses different figures
179_silver_institute.jpg

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07apr2011.php

...see how i challenged the assumption with a different set of figures :)

and here's an article on the change in fundamentals
http://goldandsilverblog.com/silver-institute-details-silver-demand-and-supply-fundamentals-0230/
 
Aurora et luna said:
Welcome Midnight Man
What happened to you? Must be at least 5 years since you dropped off the radar on the Kitco forums.
Click to expand...

Hey Aurora - you've a good memory! I'm back there (have only posted a couple things recently), and in Googling, found these forums too, so have registered here as well.

Nothing untoward happened, apart from real life and work getting in the way, had built a small stack and effectively hid it away, dragged it back out in the last couple of weeks to take stock of what I had given events around the world - and realised I should have kept buying in the intervening few years, though I'm still a good number of ounces better off than those who are unaware of PM's and the opportunity they present. Can't complain, my stack has done well compared to fiat given it was cobbled together in the $14 to $18 range.

Have an itch now to add more to it, so looking to get back involved with current events, share ideas and so forth with great folks in the communities, and scratch the itch ;-) Good to see you're still around! :)

@ Clawhammer: Interesting figures you show there, thank you for sharing and posting! I wasn't aware of those - and they show a completely different picture, don't they? Now one has to wonder why there's such a discrepancy >.>
 
A major earthquake on the Madrid fault line or California could very well have a major adverse impact on the economy that could send the USA over the tipping point.
Things seem to be that fragile these days. Time will tell.
 
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