What do you consider the "key" silver coins in the series?

mmissinglink

mmissinglink

Active Member
Everyone probably has a slightly different take on what a "key" coin means. Not everyone believes that the lowest mintage coins are key coins and some people include rare high grade coins to be included as key coins. Also, as in other series of silver coins from around the world, proof collector coins would be included as candidates.

So you should state what silver coin(s) you think are the key coins in the Lunar 2 series and why.




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In order to complete a full set then every coin is as important as every other coin in the series. This is particularly true with a series such as the lunar, kookaburra, Koala or anything where the design changes each year.

However if you just want an American Silver Eagle as an example, then any year will do, but you will want to avoid years with known weak strikes or possibly die errors.

My take on the "Key" coin of a series is...

"If you can only have one coin from the series, which one would it be?"

It isn't always going to be the lowest mintage.

Some years the coins suffered from weak strikes or excessive die wear so you would want to avoid one of those but if you found an example with a decent strike then you have got a key coin. Anyone wanting to upgrade their collection will be wanting it. These coins may well have a very high mintage.
 
My 2 cents on this.

Key coins will probably be denoted by coins which are hardest to get in the series. Naturally, lowest mintage plays a major part.
Nonetheless, having thought about it, I think it specifically refers the coins which are least available to complete the set.

Using lunar II 1oz silver for example, each is limited to 300,000 yearly, yielding the same mintage across the board. So pure mintage probably doesn't play an important part here.
The difference in availability is thus denoted by coins with a few possible scenarios:

- Some coins were given as individual gifts, which has no/almost no chance to be completed in a set. Birth, Wedding and other festival season comes to mind. Traditionally, for example, Chinese baby boom happens on a dragon year, with spills happening from Rabbit (year before) and Snakes (year after). If that is anything to be believed in, then the dragon years will result in lesser coins available to complete a set, making it a key coin

- Personal preference based on the depicted animal. Naturally, predators or strong animals will be more popular. Such as Tigers, Dragons and Horses. Again, this reduces the number of coins available to complete a set.

- First in the series; Year of the mouse, when speculators hoard up, and will release until "the price is right". In this case, it's could be a key coin because of age, and/or speculation and may not be the case when the stock is released.

- Interestingly, year of the ox in Lunar II is hard to get. I am not sure if that was the case in Lunar Seris 1. It almost felt like a large buyer bought up half the mintage and release like 10 coins per year to artificially hike up the price.

- Last but not least, the rise and fall of economy situation. Vaguely, I think the number of buyers surge as spot price rises. As evident from 2008 to 2011, and decreases otherwise, as depicted from year of the snake till about now.
Basically, they translates to the amount of "demand" chasing after a complete set. Also, if it's any indication and we are indeed in a reversal (bull market), then new buyers of subsequent 4 coins will make earlier releases much more in demand then since 2011.

Regards

Revlisify
 
2oz and 5oz Mouse.

2oz Ox.

If Perth give collectors a gift and decide not tot re strike the Kilo coins, the Kilo Mouse and Ox may do ok.

My spec long term play would be the Kilo Horse because folk have seemed to gravitate towards the design.

As a spec play I'd put my money on the 2oz and 5oz Snake because Perth were behind schedule releasing them and they seem to have gone un-noticed, mintage is reasonable as well.
 
If you want to complete the series then the silver mouse is the key.

however looking ahead if silver rises I can't see many people paying a premium for the pig or rooster. There may be potential on those designs.

If yr looking fro most popular animal then dragon outstrips everything. due to the high mintage quite easy to obtain however.

I would be more worried about the desirability of the lunar series as a whole.
 
nickybaby said:
... however looking ahead if silver rises I can't see many people paying a premium for the pig or rooster.
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You might be right with the pigs, however, I have been told by a couple of close relatives that rooster is one of the highly regarded animal in the Chinese culture. Perhaps someone with the knowledge could confirm this?

To answer the OP; the Dragons would definitely top my list, followed by Tigers, Horses, Monkeys, Roosters and Dogs (not necessary in this order). Again, I am basing this on the previous conversations I had with my relatives.
 
Taz03 said:
nickybaby said:
... however looking ahead if silver rises I can't see many people paying a premium for the pig or rooster.
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You might be right with the pigs, however, I have been told by a couple of close relatives that rooster is one of the highly regarded animal in the Chinese culture...
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How many collectors of the Perth Mint Lunar series share the Chinese culture?

I know I am not one of them so I have no regard for mice, goats, pigs or any other farmyard animals. I just want the cool one, the Dragon. Not interested in any of the others other than they seem to sell well so if you can get them cheap it might be worth it.
 
Jislizard said:
How many collectors of the Perth Mint Lunar series share the Chinese culture?
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Fair point!

I guess I am looking at this not only as a collector, but also as a prospective seller. IMHO, more and more people are becoming aware of the Lunar coins as we progress through the current and the next (potentially) series. Chances are, some of these newcomers might have a Chinese background or share their view of the culture and would therefore be selective when it comes to buying their Lunar coins. Keeping some of the lunar coins with these highly regarded animals imprinted on them and selling them to the right buyer at the right time might not be a bad way to make some money in the form of premium. :)
 
Taz03 said:
To answer the OP; the Dragons would definitely top my list, followed by Tigers, Horses, Monkeys, Roosters and Dogs (not necessary in this order). Again, I am basing this on the previous conversations I had with my relatives.
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Thanks for responding but please clarify. It appears as if you are but please correct me if I have misunderstood you, are you stating that the reason that the coin issues you believe are the most key silver coins in the Lunar 2 series are because you have been told that it is these Lunar animals that are most highly regarded in the Chinese culture?? So for example, are you claiming that the 1 oz silver bullion Dragon coin (the Dragon is at the top of your list) is much more a key coin than the 2 oz bullion Ox or the 1 kilo proof Mouse?

And what about the condition of a coin? Does this have a role in what might be perceived as a key coin? Can a professionally graded coin which is graded to be MS70 (by NGC for example) for an issue (particular year) that is known to have real quality issues (problems) in production, be considered key....if for example only 10 known MS70 examples exist for that issue (particular year) in that condition?

Thanks for helping me understand better what you are stating and what you believe.



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No worries, mmissinglink.

mmissinglink said:
Thanks for responding but please clarify. It appears as if you are but please correct me if I have misunderstood you, are you stating that the reason that the coin issues you believe are the most key silver coins in the Lunar 2 series are because you have been told that it is these Lunar animals that are most highly regarded in the Chinese culture??
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I am. I also think that many of people with Chinese background, especially those of the older generations, believe that there is some sort of hierarchy when it comes to the Lunar animals.

One anecdotal evidence I have is the craziness surrounding a baby formula here Australia back in 2012. As you know, that year marked the year of the dragon and it is also happen to be the year that my daughter was born. One baby formula, Karicare Aptamil, is a popular brand in China and I believe that it is the only one that the Chinese trust. Unfortunately, my daughter also prefers this brand and during this year and well into 2013, my wife and I had to fight with both arms and legs just to get enough for daughter's needs. Many of the Australian stocks have been shipped over to China by living relatives residing in Australia. At one time, I saw a Chinese woman hogging a whole pallet of this formula at Costco! It's only when these Dragon babies have grown out of their formula needs that supply has started to come back.

http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/pa...y-formula-supply/story-fnet08xa-1226546773313


I also know of some people with Chinese background that have taken their beliefs to another level. As silly as this may sound, I know of two Gen Y couples that went through elective caesarean just to have their baby delivered on a 'perfect' day within a preferred Lunar year.


mmissinglink said:
So for example, are you claiming that the 1 oz silver bullion Dragon coin (the Dragon is at the top of your list) is much more a key coin than the 2 oz bullion Ox or the 1 kilo proof Mouse?
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I would say so. I even go as far as saying that I would get my hands on any of the Lunar Tiger/Horses over the Oxen.


mmissinglink said:
And what about the condition of a coin? Does this have a role in what might be perceived as a key coin? Can a professionally graded coin which is graded to be MS70 (by NGC for example) for an issue (particular year) that is known to have real quality issues (problems) in production, be considered key....if for example only 10 known MS70 examples exist for that issue (particular year) in that condition?
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Hmm this is a tough question to answer. I guess this would come down to personal preference. This is where I would personally draw the line. I don't think I can bring myself purchasing low quality Lunar coins despite the animal that is depicted on these coins. I guess most collectors, regardless of whether they believe in the Chinese culture, would probably put quality over beliefs. I also reckon that this is possibly one of the main reason why the Royal Mint Lunar Horse with the same 300K mintage as Perth Mint is not selling as well, despite being one of the favorite animal in the calendar and is the first one of the series.


Hope these clarify things a little and apologies for the long post.
 
Taz03 said:
No worries, mmissinglink.

mmissinglink said:
Thanks for responding but please clarify. It appears as if you are but please correct me if I have misunderstood you, are you stating that the reason that the coin issues you believe are the most key silver coins in the Lunar 2 series are because you have been told that it is these Lunar animals that are most highly regarded in the Chinese culture??
Click to expand...

I am. I also think that many of people with Chinese background, especially those of the older generations, believe that there is some sort of hierarchy when it comes to the Lunar animals.

One anecdotal evidence I have is the craziness surrounding a baby formula here Australia back in 2012. As you know, that year marked the year of the dragon and it is also happen to be the year that my daughter was born. One baby formula, Karicare Aptamil, is a popular brand in China and I believe that it is the only one that the Chinese trust. Unfortunately, my daughter also prefers this brand and during this year and well into 2013, my wife and I had to fight with both arms and legs just to get enough for daughter's needs. Many of the Australian stocks have been shipped over to China by living relatives residing in Australia. At one time, I saw a Chinese woman hogging a whole pallet of this formula at Costco! It's only when these Dragon babies have grown out of their formula needs that supply has started to come back.

http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/pa...y-formula-supply/story-fnet08xa-1226546773313


I also know of some people with Chinese background that have taken their beliefs to another level. As silly as this may sound, I know of two Gen Y couples that went through elective caesarean just to have their baby delivered on a 'perfect' day within a preferred Lunar year.


mmissinglink said:
So for example, are you claiming that the 1 oz silver bullion Dragon coin (the Dragon is at the top of your list) is much more a key coin than the 2 oz bullion Ox or the 1 kilo proof Mouse?
Click to expand...

I would say so. I even go as far as saying that I would get my hands on any of the Lunar Tiger/Horses over the Oxen.


mmissinglink said:
And what about the condition of a coin? Does this have a role in what might be perceived as a key coin? Can a professionally graded coin which is graded to be MS70 (by NGC for example) for an issue (particular year) that is known to have real quality issues (problems) in production, be considered key....if for example only 10 known MS70 examples exist for that issue (particular year) in that condition?
Click to expand...

Hmm this is a tough question to answer. I guess this would come down to personal preference. This is where I would personally draw the line. I don't think I can bring myself purchasing low quality Lunar coins despite the animal that is depicted on these coins. I guess most collectors, regardless of whether they believe in the Chinese culture, would probably put quality over beliefs. I also reckon that this is possibly one of the main reason why the Royal Mint Lunar Horse with the same 300K mintage as Perth Mint is not selling as well, despite being one of the favorite animal in the calendar and is the first one of the series.


Hope these clarify things a little and apologies for the long post.
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Hi Taz03,


Thanks for your reply and I don't mind if a position is lengthy, just so long as it is sensible and well argued.

So if it is your position that the key silver coins of the Perth Mint's Lunar Series 2 are based exclusively on the popularity of the associated Lunar animals in the "Chinese culture" (whatever that means but for the moment I'll allow the presupposed belief that the Chinese culture is basically uniform in their hierarchical regard for specific Lunar animals), how do you respond to JizLizard's point about the fact that it's possible (or most likely) that the buyers of the PM Lunar Series 2 silver coins are largely (percentage-wise) not people who prescribe to or whom have adopted the "Chinese culture"?

That question must be answered in a reasonable way because, after all, aren't the actual buyers the one's who ultimately drive demand and isn't supply vs demand one of the (if not the) most significant factor in determining which are the key coins in this series?


Would it not follow that, at least to a significant degree, a key coin is one which has some level of notable demand coupled with a very low availability of that particular coin issue? As another forum member pointed out (I think), there is no lack of easy availability of silver S2 bullion Dragon coins at comparatively lower prices than to a number of other PM Series 2 Lunar animal issues (depending on coin size). So wouldn't that mean, for example, that the 5 oz silver bullion Dragon is really not a key issue as is the 5 oz silver bullion Mouse which, according to completed sales on eBay, the latter (Mouse) has fetched prices of 700% to about 1,000% greater than the former (Dragon)?



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For me, on the series 2 1/2 oz coins, it took me several months to find the ox. For example, the mouse is the "key" coin in the 1/2 oz category, but those are more plentiful than the ox....at least in the u.s. anyways....
 
I don't think you can truly know the key coin in a series until after the fact. First coin and lowest mintage are the factors that give you the best odds of having the key coin, but to a certain extent, it is luck.

For the unlimited mintage PM lunars, silver price, design & mintage are the main factors but unfortunately the PM does not update mintage in a timely manner.

For the 1oz mintage PM lunars, silver price, design and animal type are the main factors. There will always be surprises like the ox, but tigers & dragons are normally at the top and horses are popular. Because they are the first of the series, Mice are usually a good investment.
 
Good point dccpa about the series not being complete yet and there could be some surprises.

What about the 1/2 kilo size...does anyone know if the PM is planning to mint the rest of the Series 2 in that size. It's kind of bizarre that only the first couple of coins in the entire S2 series has a 1/2 kilo size. But then again, for the PM, not being consistent seems to be a hallmark of sorts. Not necessarily a criticism, more an observation. Maybe there are good reasons they are inconsistent.


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mmissinglink said:
So if it is your position that the key silver coins of the Perth Mint's Lunar Series 2 are based exclusively on the popularity of the associated Lunar animals in the "Chinese culture" (whatever that means but for the moment I'll allow the presupposed belief that the Chinese culture is basically uniform in their hierarchical regard for specific Lunar animals), how do you respond to JizLizard's point about the fact that it's possible (or most likely) that the buyers of the PM Lunar Series 2 silver coins are largely (percentage-wise) not people who prescribe to or whom have adopted the "Chinese culture"?

That question must be answered in a reasonable way because, after all, aren't the actual buyers the one's who ultimately drive demand and isn't supply vs demand one of the (if not the) most significant factor in determining which are the key coins in this series?
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I think JisLizard has a valid point and I agree with the comment to the extent of past and current buyers. However, I strongly believe that we will be exposed to an influx of prospective buyers who share some of their views on Chinese culture or are Chinese in the near future. I do not have hard data/facts to support this; rather, I am basing my view on things that I see, hear or read in my everyday life. The bottom line is that I have noticed an increasing number of people, regardless of their ethnicity, are becoming more appreciative of Chinese culture. If a proportion of this subset of community, as well as some additional Chinese population became interested with investing in precious metals in the near future, I would expect a sudden spark of interests in Perth Mint Lunar coins that are previously deemed not popular, i.e. Monkeys and Roosters, and drive their price up. I therefore believe that we will see a different pattern of sales for the remaining series II coins compared to the previous series. I guess we all won't find out until after each coins has passed their cycle, as ddcpa has outline above; but I, for one, am definitely interested in how things are unfolding in the next couple of years. It may well be that I am completely in the wrong and that increasing popularity of the Lunar series II is due to increase in overall awareness of the series amongst the stacker community, not because of cultural beliefs. However, if this is the case, I would expect a sell-out of the 1 oz silver and gold Goat and Pig as well.

mmissinglink said:
Would it not follow that, at least to a significant degree, a key coin is one which has some level of notable demand coupled with a very low availability of that particular coin issue? As another forum member pointed out (I think), there is no lack of easy availability of silver S2 bullion Dragon coins at comparatively lower prices than to a number of other PM Series 2 Lunar animal issues (depending on coin size). So wouldn't that mean, for example, that the 5 oz silver bullion Dragon is really not a key issue as is the 5 oz silver bullion Mouse which, according to completed sales on eBay, the latter (Mouse) has fetched prices of 700% to about 1,000% greater than the former (Dragon)?
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I think that, as ddcpa and others has stated, mice is the first coin of the series and they tend to sell well. Of course, the low mintages of the mice helps the premium even further.
 
BoliverT. said:
uuuuuuuumm said:
the ones I have that you want they are the keys coins :)
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That would be true, it's the coin or bar others will buy from you whether you like it or not.
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it seems to be true dosnt it :D not exactly sure how it works but one coin etc.. gets a roll on and others have to have it even if they don't like it but they have to have it because others want it and no one for the most part even knows why they want it, seen it happen time and time again and 90 % of them don't stand the test of time $ wise, why? probably because humans are pack animals and they do what they see others do even if they don't know why :D

what was the question again :mad:
 
If you really want a key coin check what I buy and run like h^& for it is a sure thing if I collect it, it will hit rock bottom and you couldn't give it away.
 
A "key' coin can always change especially with the lunar series coins , I remember when you could barely give away the series 1 , 2oz silver tigers then the prices went crazy, same with when the series 2 mouse was released no one wanted them (myself included although I bought a few different sizes luckily), it was all about the dragons then walla 2011/2012 came dragon mania the Perth mint milked the hell out of them and at least as present killed the desire for dragon , but that will probably change . So the point is this seems to be an evolving series and it will take time to see clearly the "key" coins . I would agree with most here though that the ox and mouse (except for the 1 oz and kilo) seem to be the most expensive and hardest to find , and the tiger seems to be very loved...
 
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