What do you consider a decent-sized Silver stack?
- Thread starter Ronnington
- Start date
I bought because at the time I was looking for somewhere to park some spare cash in my super account for a few years. Initially I was looking to buy gold, but while doing the homework, stumbled across the inevitable silver-bull articles. They made sense at the time.
I sold off late last year.
I wouldn't say I'm sour on silver - I am a metallurgist by qualification, so I love metals!
. Is this not a PM forum first, regardless of the chosen name? I like and hold gold.I would say that, through experience, I have figured out and wised-up to the players in the silver game.... and many of these participants are exactly the type of character I loathe.
I am a trader first, and have been trading markets (including futures) for decades, and was a stockbroker in a previous life, so I have a pretty good idea how markets work.
After acquiring a substantial stack, and joining forums such as this one, a few things started becoming clear to me:
The folklore of the evil cartel.
The portrayal of the stacker as a good-hearted innocent victim of the evil cartel.
The closet desire of the stacker for financial domination.
The explaining away of undesirable silver price-movements as manipulation by the evil cartel, using mere intuition.
The unwavering castigation of pariahs who dare question the manipulation theory.
The unwavering belief that silver is actually money, and not a commodity.
The faith needed in the claim that silver is undervalued, due to the inability to present a quantitative valuation.
The faith needed to believe in the scriptures of the stacker lords, such as Maloney, Schiff, and Morgan.
The blind-faith needed to be able to ignore the contradictions and inconsistencies in the scriptures and writings of the above-mentioned lords.
The blind-faith needed to believe the COMEX default scriptures.
Now, when comparing these points to those used to define religion:
A specific fundamental set of beliefs and practices generally agreed upon by a number of persons or sects.
The body of persons adhering to a particular set of beliefs and practices.
The practice of religious beliefs; ritual observance of faith.
Something one believes in and follows devotedly; a point or matter of ethics or conscience:
I haven't figured out if the silver-story is a fairy-tale, or a religion in it's own right?
Either way, the similarities, contradictions, inconsistencies, and shady characters involved in the story make my guts churn, and are the type of characters I run a mile from due to their obvious vested interest.
Additionally, back in the real world, my own opinion, using real data, fact and logic, actually explains the poor price performance of the silver price over the last decade.
Thus, I prefer to stick with my logic.
Cheers
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^^ Here is an example.
I would love to see your silver valuation method, growth projection method, and comparison valuation method for silver vs stocks.
Ronnington
Member
If you're as well-informed as you claim to be, then you wouldn't have got burned by Silver.
Silver is no different to anything else, if you buy Low and sell when you think it's High - most definitely higher than your original physical purchase price after postage etc, for obvious reasons - then you won't lose. It is that simple.
My example above is based on a number of stocks I have compared between March and September, taking into account a similar but slightly heavier crash that happened in March, but later this year... if I bought at what I calculated would be near its rock-bottom price and held for 3-4 years, the best performers may increase 200-300% at best. The stock market post-covid is going to be very very different over the next few years compared to pre-covid.
Meanwhile, my calculations suggest Silver could go well above US$90 per oz (and that's being conservative) within the next 18 months... you do the maths on that percentage increase when my average physical total purchase price for my entire stack is US$21.36 per oz...
Silver is no different to anything else, if you buy Low and sell when you think it's High - most definitely higher than your original physical purchase price after postage etc, for obvious reasons - then you won't lose. It is that simple.
My example above is based on a number of stocks I have compared between March and September, taking into account a similar but slightly heavier crash that happened in March, but later this year... if I bought at what I calculated would be near its rock-bottom price and held for 3-4 years, the best performers may increase 200-300% at best. The stock market post-covid is going to be very very different over the next few years compared to pre-covid.
Meanwhile, my calculations suggest Silver could go well above US$90 per oz (and that's being conservative) within the next 18 months... you do the maths on that percentage increase when my average physical total purchase price for my entire stack is US$21.36 per oz...
Ronnington
Member
So far, Silver has been by far the best investment I've made. Having said that, I have got lucky that I've bought the vast majority of my stack between February-May this year.
Back in Feb, me and my close-knit group of best friends each had a few $$$$ that we planned to put in a kitty towards a Las Vegas stag-do for 2021. When Covid really kicked off in March, we discussed ideas of where we are going to invest our individual $$$$... I laid my cards on the table with all of them and explained how I heavily researched Silver at the start of the year, its potential as the crisis-commodity King along with Gold and that's where I felt most confident in this unprecedented economic climate.
Meanwhile my best friends laughed at me, called me mad and lumped their $$$$ together to invest in - what on paper look - very solid stocks that should be strong enough to weather this brutal economic storm... the result? Their total portfolio is currently -37% and mine is very very much in the Green they are certainly not laughing now.
Back in Feb, me and my close-knit group of best friends each had a few $$$$ that we planned to put in a kitty towards a Las Vegas stag-do for 2021. When Covid really kicked off in March, we discussed ideas of where we are going to invest our individual $$$$... I laid my cards on the table with all of them and explained how I heavily researched Silver at the start of the year, its potential as the crisis-commodity King along with Gold and that's where I felt most confident in this unprecedented economic climate.
Meanwhile my best friends laughed at me, called me mad and lumped their $$$$ together to invest in - what on paper look - very solid stocks that should be strong enough to weather this brutal economic storm... the result? Their total portfolio is currently -37% and mine is very very much in the Green
they are certainly not laughing now.
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I didn't get burned.
Luckily, I came out in the black.
The opportunity cost was pretty bad though.
If you're as well-informed as you claim to be, you would have demonstrated you valuations rather than offer 6 lines of drivel about when you think it's high, higher, or low.
Ronnington
Member
Yup, read them again.....you may want to read my posts again, or do you suffer from cognitive dissonance?
".....if you buy Low and sell when you think it's High...."
".... most definitely higher than your original physical purchase price after postage ... "
".... taking into account a similar but slightly heavier crash that happened in March, but later this year..."
".... if I bought at what I calculated would be near its rock-bottom price...."
".... Meanwhile, my calculations suggest Silver could go well above US$90 per oz ...."
".... you do the maths on that percentage increase when my average physical total purchase price for my entire stack is ..."
Sorry, I don't see your valuation calculations?
I see an empirical comparison of apples and oranges.
BTW, Well done for using a couple of big words, but it doesn't make you right.
When entering the silver space I was very weary of the permabulls spruiking, yet I never dismissed them. I would listen to both sides, those who pushed silver and those who bashed silver. The silver bashers only ever came from the angle of silver as an investment, and their reasoning never warranted a complete dismissal of silver as a means of savings. The silver pumpers made a decent argument as a collective, yet would constantly parrot the same points over and over:
"silver is money"
"Government printing"
"Look at the charts"
"1980 highs adjusted for inflation"
Blah blah blah
Listening to that Sh!t is tiresome. Those are things I still give consideration to, but we're far from a good enough reasons for me to plant my savings into. Keeping in mind that I wanted to use silver for a long-term savings vessel. I run my own business and have always perceived superannuation as a scam in many regards, one which posed risks and uncertainties in a long-term game (I'm almost 40 years away from retirement age).
The talking and research points which resonated with me the most, and in-turn lead to my decision to stack silver in a big way were:
(Fear)
Silver being a tangible asset
Low interest rates
Bank bail ins
Inflation hedge (depending on when you chose to buy and how long you held)
^Long-term, low risk wealth preserver^
Economic and financial uncertainty
The current fiat monetary experiment nearing the end of its historical cycle (49 years).
(Opportunity)
A finite resource
Global consumption
Global supply
Costs to mine
Ore grade declines
Mining deficits
Increasing investment demand (over the decades)
Industrial uses
Increasing Industrial demand
Declining reserves
Evidence of peak discoveries (1985-87)
Mining ratio to gold vs price ratio
Etc
To think that I could walk into a bullion store in 2018 and buy an ounce of silver for $20-$25 (equal to less than 12-15 minutes of my hourly rate) was mind boggling to me.
I always bought silver with the understanding that if I needed to sell to a Bullion dealer, I would need the silver price to rise X% to break even. I think we're actually at least 1-1.5 years away from silver reaching its peak price point in this bull run, before a major pull back. This is based upon the psychology of the market in previous runs, using the march dip as the equivalent low of 2008. I may very well be wrong (give or take), but I will only lose out on the missed opportunity to reposition myself favourably. Most of the other reasons for being in PMs (fear) would still be valid.
I did enough investigation to feel that my reasons for buying in were justified.
In regards to manipulation, I think there's enough evidence to support a long-term price "management" for the physical market. Governments sales in the past have been used to fill the deficits. Certain ETF inventories appear to have been used for the same purposes.
As for the opportunity of WHEN to buy, I based my decisions on the market fundamentals, the primary silver miners production costs (approx. $15usd) and the AUD/USD exchange rate.
I bought 90% of my stack below the average cost of production for the primary miners. Whether or not that meant silver was grossly undervalued, I felt that my reasoning was justified at the time and so far it has paid off.
When silver hit $12USD I increased my position by XXXX ounces. This was after I had already met my stacking/saving goals for the financial year, so I won't be buying anymore for sometime - especially now that it's jumped up so ferociously.
However, if I were into silver for some short-term speculation, I would still consider it.
"silver is money"
"Government printing"
"Look at the charts"
"1980 highs adjusted for inflation"
Blah blah blah
Listening to that Sh!t is tiresome. Those are things I still give consideration to, but we're far from a good enough reasons for me to plant my savings into. Keeping in mind that I wanted to use silver for a long-term savings vessel. I run my own business and have always perceived superannuation as a scam in many regards, one which posed risks and uncertainties in a long-term game (I'm almost 40 years away from retirement age).
The talking and research points which resonated with me the most, and in-turn lead to my decision to stack silver in a big way were:
(Fear)
Silver being a tangible asset
Low interest rates
Bank bail ins
Inflation hedge (depending on when you chose to buy and how long you held)
^Long-term, low risk wealth preserver^
Economic and financial uncertainty
The current fiat monetary experiment nearing the end of its historical cycle (49 years).
(Opportunity)
A finite resource
Global consumption
Global supply
Costs to mine
Ore grade declines
Mining deficits
Increasing investment demand (over the decades)
Industrial uses
Increasing Industrial demand
Declining reserves
Evidence of peak discoveries (1985-87)
Mining ratio to gold vs price ratio
Etc
To think that I could walk into a bullion store in 2018 and buy an ounce of silver for $20-$25 (equal to less than 12-15 minutes of my hourly rate) was mind boggling to me.
I always bought silver with the understanding that if I needed to sell to a Bullion dealer, I would need the silver price to rise X% to break even. I think we're actually at least 1-1.5 years away from silver reaching its peak price point in this bull run, before a major pull back. This is based upon the psychology of the market in previous runs, using the march dip as the equivalent low of 2008. I may very well be wrong (give or take), but I will only lose out on the missed opportunity to reposition myself favourably. Most of the other reasons for being in PMs (fear) would still be valid.
I did enough investigation to feel that my reasons for buying in were justified.
In regards to manipulation, I think there's enough evidence to support a long-term price "management" for the physical market. Governments sales in the past have been used to fill the deficits. Certain ETF inventories appear to have been used for the same purposes.
As for the opportunity of WHEN to buy, I based my decisions on the market fundamentals, the primary silver miners production costs (approx. $15usd) and the AUD/USD exchange rate.
I bought 90% of my stack below the average cost of production for the primary miners. Whether or not that meant silver was grossly undervalued, I felt that my reasoning was justified at the time and so far it has paid off.
When silver hit $12USD I increased my position by XXXX ounces. This was after I had already met my stacking/saving goals for the financial year, so I won't be buying anymore for sometime - especially now that it's jumped up so ferociously.
However, if I were into silver for some short-term speculation, I would still consider it.
I will add that ever since I made a significant purchase of silver, confirmation Bias has played a major role in my ongoing research.
This is why I value my conversations/debates with you @wrcmad . You play devils advocate and challenge my perceptions. I find it healthy and productive in most regards. Even though I don't agree with some of the points you make, I have always learnt more about my position (and sometimes myself) through our discussions.
I think your reasons for exiting silver were largely justified.
I see where you're coming from with this point entirely. I feel the same way, yet I just see the rhetoric as bread crumbs for personal investigation.
I can smell a salesman from a mile away. I can also see the desperation from those who have entered the space who use the same cult-like, religious mantras to justify their reasoning and positions. It can be extremely dangerous and unhelpful to grasp at straws In attempt to satisfy the ego. Believe me, through confirmation bias I have subjected myself to the same level of conditioning.
Funny enough, it was the first debate I ever had with you which made me snap out of it and go back to the fundamentals of why I entered the silver space in the first place.
This is why I value my conversations/debates with you @wrcmad . You play devils advocate and challenge my perceptions. I find it healthy and productive in most regards. Even though I don't agree with some of the points you make, I have always learnt more about my position (and sometimes myself) through our discussions.
I think your reasons for exiting silver were largely justified.
I see where you're coming from with this point entirely. I feel the same way, yet I just see the rhetoric as bread crumbs for personal investigation.
I can smell a salesman from a mile away. I can also see the desperation from those who have entered the space who use the same cult-like, religious mantras to justify their reasoning and positions. It can be extremely dangerous and unhelpful to grasp at straws In attempt to satisfy the ego. Believe me, through confirmation bias I have subjected myself to the same level of conditioning.
Funny enough, it was the first debate I ever had with you which made me snap out of it and go back to the fundamentals of why I entered the silver space in the first place.
Well said @SKTR.
I think we are finally starting to understand each other.
I agree with 95% of what you said above.
Firstly, I rarely consider savings as a legitimate activity - it is unproductive most of the time with inferior returns. For minimal effort, a relatively safe investment can be made which puts your funds to work on a better return. So I tend to forget that some people actually do just save.
Second, most stackers obsess about spot price and silver returns. They are not savers. They are closet investors hoping to be holding when price goes to da moon. If they were merely savers, then spot price fluctuations would not be so bothersome, and manipulation theory would not be so all-consuming.
But for me, the consideration of the "Fear" points becomes paralysing in an investment sense, and the opportunity cost is overwhelming for what I consider disproportionately less risk.
It is also the same fear that the permabull publications constantly promote - whether real or make believe?
In other words, it's akin to never going outside in case you get hit by a bus, and that will cost you dearly in everyday life.
As for the opportunity points - we know each other's stance on those.
I think we are finally starting to understand each other.
I agree with 95% of what you said above.
^You are correct here, I think. I haven't really thought about it before, but there are some good reasons for this.
Firstly, I rarely consider savings as a legitimate activity - it is unproductive most of the time with inferior returns. For minimal effort, a relatively safe investment can be made which puts your funds to work on a better return. So I tend to forget that some people actually do just save.
Second, most stackers obsess about spot price and silver returns. They are not savers. They are closet investors hoping to be holding when price goes to da moon. If they were merely savers, then spot price fluctuations would not be so bothersome, and manipulation theory would not be so all-consuming.
Fair call.
But for me, the consideration of the "Fear" points becomes paralysing in an investment sense, and the opportunity cost is overwhelming for what I consider disproportionately less risk.
It is also the same fear that the permabull publications constantly promote - whether real or make believe?
In other words, it's akin to never going outside in case you get hit by a bus, and that will cost you dearly in everyday life.
As for the opportunity points - we know each other's stance on those.
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Ronnington
Member
Eh? You come across many times on this forum as if you don't read entire posts, only selectively what you want to... and you are very selective
"comparing apples and oranges" - well you mentioned the stock market and Silver, so have I Because you conveniently glanced over it, I said above: "if I bought at what I calculated would be near its rock-bottom price and held for 3-4 years, the best performers may increase 200-300% at best. The stock market post-covid is going to be very very different over the next few years compared to pre-covid."
Meanwhile, my calculations suggest Silver could go well above US$90 per oz (and that's being conservative) within the next 18 months... you do the maths on that percentage increase when my average physical total purchase price for my entire stack is US$21.36 per oz...
- by my calculations, that is potentially more than a 325% gain. From the vast research I have done, no stocks come close to that, unless you gamble on an extremely high-risk highly-volatile pump & dump penny stock. We have already entered another global Depression for the first time in 90 years.
I also said:
"Back in Feb, me and my close-knit group of best friends each had a few $$$$ that we planned to put in a kitty towards a Las Vegas stag-do for 2021. When Covid really kicked off in March, we discussed ideas of where we are going to invest our individual $$$$... I laid my cards on the table with all of them and explained how I heavily researched Silver at the start of the year, its potential as the crisis-commodity King along with Gold and that's where I felt most confident in this unprecedented economic climate.
Meanwhile my best friends laughed at me, called me mad and lumped their $$$$ together to invest in - what on paper look - very solid stocks that should be strong enough to weather this brutal economic storm... the result? Their total portfolio is currently -37% and mine is very very much in the Green
they are certainly not laughing now."Now, you tell us, how do you think the stock market is going to perform over the next couple of years? Do you see it outperforming Silver and Gold? Because I don't.
Are you a betting man @Ronnington.
I've made a few bets on here and yet to lose one (@Skyrocket ...haven't forgotten you buddy, year end approacheth)
Want to place a $1000 wager on that call "over US$90 within 18 months' ?
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Ronnington
Member
great post
my reasons for buying Silver are the same as you.I'm not biased towards one investment vehicle/asset/commodity over another - I don't care what it is - if I see something (anything) that is undervalued after I've done research and calculations, I will buy it.
I've even done this in the past with historic Lego sets that were 30 years old and sold them at a surprisingly very nice profit. Same with limited edition performance cars.
When the time is right, I will sell the majority (but not all) of my Silver stack and I will jump back in to the stock market and housing market when the tide turns.
Ronnington
Member
I won't consider a bet in fiat currency. But I would perhaps consider something like "the winner gets a tube of 25 1oz Perth Mint Kangaroos"....
Set a tube aside for me and I will touch base with you 8th of March 2022 to let you know where to post it to
Ronnington
Member
what happens if it touches US$90 per oz before 8th March 2022?
Jason1
Well-Known Member
the problem with many of wrcmad comments or rants, he picks the thinking of a few dimwitted stackers with hardcore conspiracies and lumps the rest of us in that category to say its a stupid investment simply because those types are the loudest.
believe it or not there are different stackers who dont believe in the buy now at any price because the world is going to end and silver will be our salvation. there are people who actually use their brains and have real strategies and yes Understand its a commodity and treat it as such, but also know being a commodity is a good thing not a negative thing, because as soon as you understand that you make money.
ive been doing this for just under 20 years, heard the naysayers and heard the ultra optimistic to the mooners predictions also, both all tout the same thing, over and over in the 20 years ive been stacking, none are original, both their arguments are predictable.
its best to ignore both of those types as they will waste your time and dont help you. Over optimistic to the mooner advice will let you down, while the Naysayer who are butthurt because they listened to the to "the moon"er years ago, will just bring you down.
oh and yes you should have more than one type of investment, Not sure why the naysayers think all stackers only bank their money on just metal alone. its always the goto line for the naysayer.
yer sure some do not diversify and are happy to tout that out loud, but im sure most of us have many other investment types.
believe it or not there are different stackers who dont believe in the buy now at any price because the world is going to end and silver will be our salvation. there are people who actually use their brains and have real strategies and yes Understand its a commodity and treat it as such, but also know being a commodity is a good thing not a negative thing, because as soon as you understand that you make money.
ive been doing this for just under 20 years, heard the naysayers and heard the ultra optimistic to the mooners predictions also, both all tout the same thing, over and over in the 20 years ive been stacking, none are original, both their arguments are predictable.
its best to ignore both of those types as they will waste your time and dont help you. Over optimistic to the mooner advice will let you down, while the Naysayer who are butthurt because they listened to the to "the moon"er years ago, will just bring you down.
oh and yes you should have more than one type of investment, Not sure why the naysayers think all stackers only bank their money on just metal alone. its always the goto line for the naysayer.
yer sure some do not diversify and are happy to tout that out loud, but im sure most of us have many other investment types.
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It's a bit rash to contemplate a wager with such lousy odds.
A three to five year time-frame might be a safer bet!