TreasureHunter said:
Pirocco:
You say "there are chances on $15 and if a 2008 style crisis again reoccurs, why not lower, in its worst days?"
You mean silver could actually drop is a 2008 style scenario happens again?
I know PM prices corrected a bit back then...
But on what solid basis do you think silver's price would drop at the next crisis drop? (we're still in the same crisis, by the way!)
We're already in a deflationary scenario. Of course, in some countries this is not the case.
I agree with you with regards to silver's direction. I personally expect around 15-17 $ silver this year. But a drop below 15 $ would be way too low. But I can't exclude it.
I suppose if the currency crises (USD, EUR) amplify and bank runs, bank holidays Cyprus-type and other similar "twilight zone" events kick in, people might still turn to silver and gold as a hedge.
I also think the ETF speculators will have the interest to push it up.
Of course, short-selling to create a cataclysm-crash is a lot easier than manipulating it upwards.
But those who "play with prices" will want to bring it up again. I am just wondering how high the ball can be thrown again.
Some sort of massive shortage, production cost crisis or major economic problem could propel it up.
Above 47 $ peak was pretty high and I'm still wandering whether that would be "too high" for silver to achieve again within 2-3 years.
Weird paradox: people buy high and sell low. People jump in to buy the expensive assets and they shy away from the cheaper ones.
One can buy during an entire decade at a bloated price, to then see the price fall to some 'normal' one, with 'normal' being no big profits made inside the market.
I try to avoid doing that.
About my 'solid basis', it's an obvious one, and I said it: back in 2008 there were no large silver stocks around. ETF's barely came into existence then. Compare that with the stocks now, even after a 2 years price decline, they just still hold the silver shares and other forms. Ishares SLV 318 Moz, ZKB's ETF 50 Moz, ETF Securities PHAG 33 Moz and SIVR 18 Moz, CEF 77 Moz and others. Look at Sprott, many times mentioned on this forum, Inception Date 29/10/2010, 22 Moz end 2010, to 49 Moz during 2012.
And all those coins from Mints. 200 Moz ASE's. 120 Moz Maples. 65 Moz Philharmonikers. Perth Mint 14 Moz during 2012-2013. And others.
This is all stock of a product. Stock that will surely be sold in the next years / decades. They won't throw their silver in the ocean, they will sell it. Me included. In one time, or gradual, doesn't change the average.
That's just how it is, do you see anything to deny here?