What are the greatest risks and worse case scenarios for PMs?

[Earthjade]

Hello,

Now, I've dipped myself into PMs and before I did so, I did the research and have an understanding of the potential gains but also the risk.
For example, while a US dollar collapse is inevitable, the timeframe may be much much longer (think decades more) and the global currencies may be much more resilient than anyone initially thought. That means decades with money sunk into an asset that has zero capital flow.

What do people here think are:

1) The greatest risks when taking a position in PMs in the current environment
2) Worst case scenarios for people with PMs

 

[Earthjade]

What if...the end of the US dollar dominance is met with a new global reserve currency that by-passes gold.

 

[jpanggy]

What if...the end of the US dollar dominance is met with a new global reserve currency that by-passes gold.

It won't happen so suddenly, so you have time to prepare (dump PM).

 

[Guest]

#2 Worst case scenario for people with PM's.

Extremely hard to say unless you declare the percentage of your wealth that you have committed to PM's.if you are all in then
'Restricted cash flow' jumps to mind.

However even if you liquidate at a loss that loss would be far less than other vehicles in the current economic climate.

Biggest problem in liquidating in a panicking market is who can you offload to-Who will buy?We have not hit that absolute panic mode yet..

 

[Old Codger]

In the medium to long term, I cannot see too much against PMs.

I am convinced that at sometime in the next few years we will see a new Gold Standard, probably supported by a Silver alliance in some form.

To make that work means a MAJOR revaluation of PMs.

Short term, almost anything can happen, and probably will. Though I see very little downside to PMs this side of the next decade.


OC

 

[Shaddam IV]

China and india hold the key. If they say gold and silver rule, then gold and silver will rule. Also, this may finally be the time where the paper silver price becomes somewhat meaningless, and physical silver will take on it's own street price.

 

[Clawhammer]

I'm seriously worried about getting addicted to really expensive drugs and hookers after I sell my metals... either that or crashing my Lambourghini .

Sometimes I can't sleep thinking of the terrors awaiting in my futre!

 

[BootyBandit]

2 silver can be synthetically made thus no need to mine it as a by product no more. thus valueless. it all started by cloning from a 10oz pamp.

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

 

[Lucky]

2 silver can be synthetically made thus no need to mine it as a by product no more. thus valueless. it all started by cloning from a 10oz pamp.

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

hook..line and sinker

 

[Guest]

2 silver can be synthetically made thus no need to mine it as a by product no more. thus valueless. it all started by cloning from a 10oz pamp.

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

hook..line and sinker

ROFL

Missed that the first read around!!

 

[SilverMark]

2 silver can be synthetically made thus no need to mine it as a by product no more. thus valueless. it all started by cloning from a 10oz pamp.

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

i am buying at 2.00$/oz :lol:

backing ? nah just throwing out a worst case to think about. they can manufacture diamonds now though. de beers still keeps the market starved and the prices up. your safe till next time :lol:

obviousely a totally different ballgame with diamonds though - it is purely a crystalline structure they are replicating and not modifying atoms (not having a go at you, I'm certain you understand that). Transmutation of metals is a "scary" thought, but i think we will all be out of it before that would be possible - huge amounts of energy would be required.

 

[kkkrazy]

the greatest risk is big government choosing responsible monetry policy,chance of happening ZERO

 

[Midnight Man]

2 silver can be synthetically made thus no need to mine it as a by product no more. thus valueless. it all started by cloning from a 10oz pamp.

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

hook..line and sinker

Yeah As an answer to anyone reading this thread and scratching their head, as far as I know, it's impossible to "create" silver. It's what the olden days alchemists were trying to do in creating gold.

Or, put another way, silver, like gold, is an element. And whilst we're incredibly good at creating compounds, elements are pretty much beyond us.

 

[boneyard]

wtf if thats true then why arnt we selling our silver, any backing to that?

hook..line and sinker

Yeah As an answer to anyone reading this thread and scratching their head, as far as I know, it's impossible to "create" silver. It's what the olden days alchemists were trying to do in creating gold.

Or, put another way, silver, like gold, is an element. And whilst we're incredibly good at creating compounds, elements are pretty much beyond us.

Tell that to China.............

Don't they "make " & "create" the real thing for purchase on feebay?

 

[noddy]

Clawhammers got the right idea. Keep dreaming about the chicks and fast cars and to hell with silver.

 

[Wout]

When i buy pm's i think what their value will be in atleast 2 years, because as long as governments and central banks try to destroy economies around the world with their ridiculous monetary policies gold and silver will hold up well and fiat will be devalued.

The way i see it, America will go through a gut wrenching depression scripted by central banks and governments and gold/silver will be a good place to hold onto your wealth.

If your worried about the fact they only appreciate capital and dont pay dividends or any sort of cash flow, i think its fairly irrelevant unless you hold more than 50% of your wealth in pm's, personally i wouldnt hold more than 50% in pms because of that reason, but as long as you have some of both i think your far better off than having none. It will be a bumpy ride because there is so much interference by central banks and governments but in the end it will only be better for the metals and hard assets.

In the event gold/silver become currency your home and hosed. In regards to idnustrial use i think silver is more exposed but you need to look at the big picture, inflation will be out of control in the coming years and hard assets will benefit.

I like to get info from peter schiff, Ron paul, jim rogers, larry edelstein, wealth wire and money morning to name a few. Have a look at what some of these guys are saying and you will get a clear picture of whats going on, you wont find any good info on the news or newspapers/radio etc

 

[kkkrazy]

theft by govt through taxation,confication,siezed all because you dear reader tried to protect you hard earned labour.govt and bankers are all theives.

 

[Silverthorn]

not holding any while the world crumbles.

 

[PMcat]

1) The greatest risks when taking a position in PMs in the current environment
2) Worst case scenarios for people with PMs

1 not buying enough and selling too early...

2 looking back and thinking, damn... why oh why did I not buy more...

 

[Earthjade]

Posters in this thread are generally too optimistic or at the very least, they want to ignore the possible risks.

It is quite conceivable that if gold and silver go crazy, in an effort to bring people back to fiat, the AU or US government tax precious metal sales like crazy or restrict it or confiscate it.
After all, the market for PMs and the people that hold them are small and probably won't grow by leaps and bounds per head of population, so who is going to really care except a small group of stackers with no power?
That will pull the arse out of the market overnight.

Secondly, people predict a silver breakout away from the COMEX. "Sit tight, sit tight!"
Why, exactly?
If the silver market really is very small (a few billion), then any big bank could keep the price down forever with paper contracts.
A court case against HSBC and JP Morgan won't change that.
China has been able to buy gold and silver for two years and I'm not seeing the "China Effect" on the COMEX.
So while I don't think this state of affairs will be permanent, it is still a risk.