JulieW said:
Ronnie 666 said:
No it's the lowest value ever for the Au$.
Actually it was around 50c near 2001.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/currency
I think 60c is very possible. That could be what puts gold here over $2k
POG was low then in USD and AUD terms. Hewson predicted an AUD fall to 50c if memory serves, in the first GFC 2008. Opposite happened. So much for a PhD in Economics.
This time it is the Euro that may collapse, for different reasons. Interestingly, it reached its all time high versus the USD in July 2008, right before Lehman Bros filed for chapter 11. Back then, the issue was subprime US realestate. We have this problem and in the West of our country, more supply is coming on market, but not that many people are in crisis, so many are holding out for a better price. There is no stampede for the exit as there was in the US situation in 2008, yet. My guess would be a Chinese crisis that would catalyse our own.
But for now, the Euro stands as the obvious next domino and that should in theory push the POG up in Euro terms and indirectly in AUD.
Armstrong has a theory that the unstoppable rise of the USD will mark the end of the existing reserve system. Maybe this could arise from debt destruction, ie supply is destroyed, aka "deflation" or maybe due to demand in an all out herd panic egress from the Euro. Logically, gold benefits too.
