Vocus Communications (VOC)

finicky

finicky

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Deep correction happening to VOC

Could be an opportunity coming up. High P/E stock, in same boat as TPM, reacting to slowing profit growth outlook. Adrenaline of mergers and acquisitions wearing off. Doubts over high cost of NBN access. Could shrink margins, I've read somewhere.
My paid Motley Fool subscription service put a sell on it a while back after making a 212% profit (not me). TPM also, (36% profit). Has not revisited with a BUY yet.

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I first bought in to Voc at 1.90 sold out at $7 before the correction.
Remember they also need to raise close to $1billion to complete Nextgen sale, so not sure how their share price will fair.

Ps I don't work for Vocus or bigair but I do work in the industry for 20 years

Also look at bigair they are primed to be taken over within a year or two
 
Yep, been watching and wondering. Down 20% or so atm. All those high quality acquisitions and mergers. Need a Motley Fool Advisor recommendation to jump in, as chart will take time to show reversal signs. Dont even know what the book value of a share is after Nextgen acquisition.
 
finicky said:
Deep correction happening to VOC
Could be an opportunity coming up. High P/E stock, in same boat as TPM, reacting to slowing profit growth outlook. Adrenaline of mergers and acquisitions wearing off. Doubts over high cost of NBN access. Could shrink margins, I've read somewhere.
Click to expand...

In the last 6 months NBN has been storming ahead, esp on the business install front now with fibre to the door in commercial buildings. NBN is not as good as Vocus fibre, but about 1/5th the price for 40% of the speed for businesses makes it a no-brainer to go with NBN for all but niche high speed ultra low latency symmetrical requirements.
It costs Vocus a minimum of $35k to install fibre in a new building (often much more), and they are loss-leading many buildings to try and get a foothold. I think they are going to lose this battle against the taxpayer funded NBN. Perhaps that's what the share price reflects?
 
Ipv6Ready said:
Also look at bigair they are primed to be taken over within a year or two
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Likely.
Their business in commercial buildings is tanking as their plans are not competitive. Every business customer will leave once they have NBN. Even Vocus fibre is much cheaper than BigAir
 
SilverDJ said:
Ipv6Ready said:
Also look at bigair they are primed to be taken over within a year or two
Click to expand...

Likely.
Their business in commercial buildings is tanking as their plans are not competitive. Every business customer will leave once they have NBN. Even Vocus fibre is much cheaper than BigAir
Click to expand...


The future of Bigair hinges on Wireless and how ACCC/ACMA will look at wireless as a competitor of NBN.

Big Air prices might be noncompetitive now but that can easily change
 
Ipv6Ready said:
Big Air prices might be noncompetitive now but that can easily change
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How can you go from charging $800/month for 10M/10M wireless to match the taxpayer funded NBN's $100/month for 100M/100M and still stay in business?
BigAir have a lot of business in commercial business parks because Telstra and other major fibre providers until fairly recently have been insanely priced (if you didn't think $800/month wasn't insane already), so they were the only option.
BigAir will go from having a decent commercial business to having zero business in these buildings once NBN comes to the office door.
 
SilverDJ said:
Ipv6Ready said:
Big Air prices might be noncompetitive now but that can easily change
Click to expand...

How can you go from charging $800/month for 10M/10M wireless to match the taxpayer funded NBN's $100/month for 100M/100M and still stay in business?
BigAir have a lot of business in commercial business parks because Telstra and other major fibre providers until fairly recently have been insanely priced (if you didn't think $800/month wasn't insane already), so they were the only option.
BigAir will go from having a decent commercial business to having zero business in these buildings once NBN comes to the office door.
Click to expand...

$800 10/10 is guaranteed fixed wireless
$50 100mb wireless is campus style - put up a base in high density area before NBN. Hmmm mind boggles.
 
Bought 1,000 VOC @ 4.40

Sold DWS Ltd (DWS) which I got uncomfortable with after it announced that it will load up on debt to acquire SMX

One of my share advice newsletters has been recently tipping VOC, and the chart gives the impression of pulling out of its nose-dive?

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wouldn't you pick TPM over VOC, Finicky?
If I am not mistaken, the key members have left and they got issues on governance.

[LD]
 
Hi LD, I've wanted a bit of Vocus ever since the merger with M2 Telecom. I made a few dollars with M2 and became a doting fan for a while.

Vocus is now being run by the two biggest wheels from M2 so I'm not worried by the execs/founders from VOC - and Amcom was it? - flouncing off.
If the governance issue you refer to is the $60m once off not being clearly stated as such, "not bothered"
As usual, failing the test of intellectual analysis, I rely on charts to give me confidence, and the chart doesn't look too bad at the moment.

As to TPM, I'm considering it but I think some the past performance stats dampened my interest, the debt, plus the chair/MD/founder/major shareholder dodging the cameras and public gaze. Got to admit the TPM chart is also looking a little hopeful. One of my subscription services is tipping it at this price.
 
I am a bit heavy on TPM atm, waiting for their financial report to come out.
I will look again on VOC.
Thank you as always
 
So, this pick looking pretty poor. The chart picture requires a rethink!

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Personally I'd buy into Vocus at $2 to $2.5 for long term again.
They have lost many Senior managers, staff from Nextgen is blessing, the issue is they have lost few remaining key operational people they can ill afford.
 
I am visiting Vocus next week with a view of selling their services to my extensive Telecoms data-base.
 
wow, that's before my time, I started at telecommunications company in 97, still there haven't left lol.
 
Risk drawing your attention to VOC today. Risk because so uncertain, but at new guidance can buy at roughly less tha P/E 10 today so far (i.e under 2.50) New npat guidance 160 - 165m
Picked up a few myself
Bit spec right now it seems.
 
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