Pirocco said:
I checked some sites from dealers in Estonia, and the premiums are indeed high enough to make it not worth the bigger distance purchase / higher shipping costs.
Aside of that, the 3 I found were all out of lowpremium / common silver. The same situation as in Germany.
What does make me wonder is this: all dealers from other countries, that aren't using the reduced tax German import bypass, have everything deliverable from stock.
And the US Mint ASE sales figures to primary dealers sit on their lowest this year, with december even less than half the 'normal' 2013 month.
Now put yourself in the place of a German dealer. Selling precious metals / silver is their income. One would expect that they do everything they can to not have to refuse orders due to out of stock. And there were no sudden surprises that might have them catched. The remaining explanation is that they voluntarely chosed to bring their silver coin stock to zero. Why? Because they expect lower prices in the near future, and don't want to sit with a stock bought at old higher prices?
This all just encourages me to not hurry to add another chunk, and to have patience, as other market figures also suggest.
Another remark about Estonian dealers, the way the tax of the country of the ordering person is avoided, is by letting that person ordering the shipment himself. This way the place of the goods ownership transfer is the remote / dealer country instead of the local / buyer country, and considered as a 'pick up'.
I consider this all 'goofy'. It's just another loophole that one day will be shut too.
Alot places already talk about the eventual German reduced tax application shutdown as if it's a fact. We'll see over a couple weeks. I hope it's not. On the other hand, if the silver price drops more, it may undo the tax difference.
Pretty much Everything I've read points to the tax hike being confirmed, including the stock situation.
From what I gather all orders have to be carried out fully (shipping included) prior to 2014 in order to fall under the 7% VAT rate, anything delivered after 1.1.2014 falls under the 19% VAT rate.
Any inventory left over from 2013 would also be taxed at 19% if sold in 2014, which explains both why stock is low and also why some retailers had clearence sales.
But why not have suffient inventory, if everyone would be forced to jack up their prices anyway come 2014, one might ask?
Well, there is a reason to the madness, while the VAT-rate goes up to 19%, all of the major dealers are gearing up to "cheat" the system.
That is, Margin taxation.
Legal tender silver purchased from distributors outside the EU will still be taxed at 19%, but those 19% is only on the margin between their cost and their selling price.
The end result being a more modest price increase on most coins, by as little as 1-2% according to some sources.
I guess we have to wait and see where all this will end up, but at least it doesn't not as bad as initially believed.
As for the Estonian VAT legislation:
Some amendments was made to the current legislation, probably due to pressure from th EU due to their 0% VAT rate.
Just as the German situation it is supposed to take effect starting 1.1.2014, though it doesn't seem as bad as initially feared.
Currently ALL banknotes and coins are VAT exempt, in the amended legislation only banknotes and coins which have the exchange rate of the European Central Bank will be VAT exempt.
A short statement from the tax authority reads as follows: "If the silver coins sold are legal tender in their countries of issue and their nominal value is convertible into euros according to the rate of European Central Bank then the sale of such coins will be exempt of VAT also after 1st January 2014. All the other silver coins which do not have the conversion rate to euro will, after the entering into force of the amendment of the VAT Act, be taxed as ordinary goods."
Exactly what that entails is still a bit unclear, Philharmonics are obviously Euros and will definately have 0% VAT.
But as I understand the situation most other top selling silver coins will remain VAT free as well, this due to the fact that the ECB have conversion rates between EUR and all major currencies.
So USD/CAD/AUD/GBP, which probably accounts for almost all sales, would remain at 0% VAT (if my interpretation is correct).
I guess that, just as with Germany, we'll have to wait and see.
