Uptrend Now Pierced
- Thread starter SilverSale
- Start date
Silber said:
I am not trying to convince you of anything. Make up your own mind, but ignore it at your own missed opportunity.
T/A is not a crystal ball. It is an unbiased analysis of market dynamics and participants which can pay handsomely if used with the right risk management. It is a play on known probabilities, market positions, and behaviours to tip the outcomes in your favour. Market price is the only data that is not subject to opinion, lies, biases, subjectivity, manipulation, untruths etc. Market price data does not lie. Underlying market price moves is quantifiable active price point supply/demand.
The probability of a trend continuing can usually be estimated by the preceding price action. Use a different currency, and you are trading a totally different market. You can not analyse one market, and then use these signals to trade a totally different market. Unexpected or unforeseen events which effect market price will be taken care of by correct risk management.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Technical analysis are attempts to lure people into predictable actions.
Those that perform the suggested actions, actually do what others with vested counter-position give profit.
It's ofcourse not a crystal ball, all it is, is a soap series, with the same spins, but on the graphical plane.
The more suggestions you see, the better the idea to do exactly the opposite of the suggested.
Technical analysis is nothing but a series tricks to move people towards the losing side of the frontrun-game.
A nifty question: did we see posts about broken support lines at $50?
At $43?
At $39?
At $35?
At $37,5?
At $35,5?
All the same answer: no.
Why?
Simply because since they sat ready to sell, they needed people to keep paying higher prices.
And now that alot sold, price much lower, ... there we see, once again, the 'broken support lines' posts, haha.
Those that perform the suggested actions, actually do what others with vested counter-position give profit.
It's ofcourse not a crystal ball, all it is, is a soap series, with the same spins, but on the graphical plane.
The more suggestions you see, the better the idea to do exactly the opposite of the suggested.
Technical analysis is nothing but a series tricks to move people towards the losing side of the frontrun-game.
A nifty question: did we see posts about broken support lines at $50?
At $43?
At $39?
At $35?
At $37,5?
At $35,5?
All the same answer: no.
Why?
Simply because since they sat ready to sell, they needed people to keep paying higher prices.
And now that alot sold, price much lower, ... there we see, once again, the 'broken support lines' posts, haha.
ooooh need some ice for that burn ?
I have been quietly observing the so called best analysts of gold ( silver being proxy ) get it seriously wrong. Not just the short term but medium term as well. We can all pretty much guess the long term outcome but so many have got it so wrong.................Pirocco is therefore not completely incorrect in his assessment of analysis.....
Following the big boys of charting would have cost you a lot of money in recent months.......they were all saying the same thing....even though each one would probably pride himself on thier ability to emotionally remove themselves from the analysis they produce.
If you are ever curious about these analysts track record, read some of thier previous posts over the years and you will see enough inaccuracy to deem thier analysis worthless in reality.
Following the big boys of charting would have cost you a lot of money in recent months.......they were all saying the same thing....even though each one would probably pride himself on thier ability to emotionally remove themselves from the analysis they produce.
If you are ever curious about these analysts track record, read some of thier previous posts over the years and you will see enough inaccuracy to deem thier analysis worthless in reality.
My new year's resolution for 2013 was to not get into forum arguments like this. So I will leave this thread with this thought.tolly_67 said:
No chartist has gotten their forcast as stupendously wrong as some of the guru fundamentalist permabulls calling $50, $75.... $150 and more for silver in 2012.
SilverSanchez
Active Member
Bullion Baron said:
Thats why using a moving average is a little better - it rolls with the punches - and straight lines dont really work on long term porabolas
G
Guest
Guest
well so far nothings happened with this pierced uptrend 
A failure at $26 would mean a dramatic collapse and anyone not covering that contingency is in for a shock should it eventuateBullion Baron said:It was probably the bottom or very close to it (a final test of the $26 area wouldn't surprise me). Not every support line holds, not every broken support line means a dramatic collapse as some chartists would have you believe.salty lemon said:well so far nothings happened with this pierced uptrend
Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
Bullion Baron said:
Im no expert here notice 5 yrs chart horizontal line is stronger than the diagonal.
It may or may not even touch at 26 this time before bounce back.
If it break 26 it may go down less likely imo. Ask the guru.
Sori guys Chip have limited sources and cant even provide charts.
Bullion Baron said:
Silversale's uptrend line is just that - an uptrend line. A break of an uptrend line will usually move down to the next support - in this case around $26.
The $26 support is horizontal support, which has been well tested, over a long period, and most importantly it is part of a bigger consolidation/reversal pattern. To add to this, there is no real support under a break of $26 until around $20. It is the constant testing of a price level over a period of time which forms a buyer vacuum under this level, which can result in a very fast move when these levels are breached.
The rising support line has supported the uptrend for a long time. A break below this rising support is an indication the trend may be coming to an end or changing direction, but it does not give any clues as to how far a change in trend (should it occur) will travel - it merely indicates a potential change in trend. It also does not give any indication of the strength or speed of the move, because buyer/seller vacuums occur along horizontal price points. A break of the current rising support line will most likely find support at the very strong $26 horizontal support level, then price will be watched closely for a break below $26. If this happens, indications are the move will be strong for the already mentioned reasons - you will notice the have been many more testings on the lower edge ($26) of this reversal pattern than the upper edge - also much more price action in the lower section of the pattern - this strengthens the case that the push will be downward, and the buyer/seller vacuum has been formed on the downside at $26. The setup is nearl analogous to this setup here in post#452 http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-27970-silver-charting-and-silver-ta-chat-page-19.html. The extent of any drop is usually indicated by the length of the base of a triangular reversal pattern. In this case, there is plenty of room for it to move to $20 by this measurement.Bullion Baron said:
Not quite true. On Jan 28 2011, a support was formed at $26.40 as price turned to lead into the run up to the April high. On 14 March 2011, support at $36.50 was formed in another dip on the way up. This is where price again found support on the drop - on 5 may 2011, the first support was reached and price turned at $33.05, it again found this support level on 12 May, 17 May, 28 June and 3rd July. When this $33'ish support was finally breached on 25th September, price plummetted straight to $26.07 and again found previous support. It has bounced off this support level ever since.Bullion Baron said:
You are correct, but the probabilities are definitely against you. "False breaks" do happen occasionally, and can be a good signal to enter in the opposite direction. However, although there is always a chance, IMHO in this case the chance is very slim. Markets have good memories for good reason, and $26 has been established as a significant level. Markets don't turn due to oversold indicators, they turn because buyers become more enthusiastic than sellers, or sellers dry up.Bullion Baron said:
This discussion could probably continue for a while (and turn into a rant, based on the language that is used occasionally). Just some short replies to specific points, based on statements that I consider as 'facts' (which does not mean that I can not accept different interpretations of these facts, leading to different conclusions).
The price of silver itself (and many, if not all other commodities or stocks) is not solely governed by supply and demand. It is also governed by speculation, psychology (look at the 10 year chart of gold and its fear of the 1000$ line), and the basic emotions which are sometimes said to govern all markets: Greed and fear. There are plainly too many factors influencing the price, so that I personally don't think that the previous price movement is as significant as it is suggested by some technical analysts. Again, there may be trends or other reasonings that might make sense, but as it was already said: They should be taken with the huge, huge grain of salt that is called "reality and market fundamentals".
There is only one market for gold and silver, and it is the global one. When I buy Gold, I don't care about the price in $ and its chart, but only about the price in . It's the same market, and the currencies are converted accodingly. When you see a rising price for gold, you might just observe a devaluation of the Dollar (this could even be seen as a fact, it's just a matter of the reference frame).
However, it's not necessarily a bad thing to believe in something...
wrcmad said:
The price of silver itself (and many, if not all other commodities or stocks) is not solely governed by supply and demand. It is also governed by speculation, psychology (look at the 10 year chart of gold and its fear of the 1000$ line), and the basic emotions which are sometimes said to govern all markets: Greed and fear. There are plainly too many factors influencing the price, so that I personally don't think that the previous price movement is as significant as it is suggested by some technical analysts. Again, there may be trends or other reasonings that might make sense, but as it was already said: They should be taken with the huge, huge grain of salt that is called "reality and market fundamentals".
wrcmad said:
There is only one market for gold and silver, and it is the global one. When I buy Gold, I don't care about the price in $ and its chart, but only about the price in . It's the same market, and the currencies are converted accodingly. When you see a rising price for gold, you might just observe a devaluation of the Dollar (this could even be seen as a fact, it's just a matter of the reference frame).
However, it's not necessarily a bad thing to believe in something...
G
Guest
Guest
All talk of the price going to $20 had stopped now.
It seems there's many bandwagon types out their who'll change their outlook on a dime
It seems there's many bandwagon types out their who'll change their outlook on a dime