phrenzy said:
I don't think $17.xx is going to equate to 72000 sold contacts, it's not profit taking time yet. Plus, the market is shaky as all get out and one more little hiccup could put a $50 chili pepper up gold which will take sliver with it. If anything I think this intermediate price with uncertainty in the horizon will cause shorts to be closed out adding upwards pressure.
Ill bet you an ounce, Pirocco, that we don't see $4 down in the next six weeks but will stay within a $2 trading range higher or lower. * prize does not include postage to the EUSSR but it will be your ounce, allocated, here in australia if you ever have to flee moderate socialist oppression in your homeland.
That's what they said in april 2011 at $49.
That's what they said in september 2011 at $43.
That's what they said in february 2012 at $37.
That's what they said in october 2012 at $35.
That's what they said in january 2013 at $32.
That's what they said in august 2013 at $25.
That's what they said in october 2013 and february 2014 at $22.
That's what they said in juli 2014 at $21.
That's what they said in december 2014 at $17.
And while they're saying it, they took profit.
Every ounce sold high requires an ounce purchased high.
Maybe this time is different, your statement has some supporting elements (alot multiyear highs/lows around).
But what else than another temporary story would it be?
You bet an ounce that we don't see $4 down in the next six weeks.
Let's dig the ounce and just stick to the bet.
Suppose you win it? Then what?
Suppose you lose it? Then what?
If the price gets indeed driven down to low $13, no matter six, seven or 52 weeks, then my decision, as a simple plain silver saver, to wait, was the good one.
And btw, where did you get that 72000 figure? With 13/01/2015's situation as a reference, other things equal, $17.7 would correspond to a figure below 60000 (57584).
Now tell me who is gonna buy more silver, as to explain your higher price without higher total net position?
In some past, ETF's took that part of the job.
Since 2012, they ceased. All we see since is some 30 Moz sized fluctuation on a total that is over 10 times bigger.
And, don't focus on this or that (the shorts, the longs). Focus on the total net of them all. Because these futures market story elements, have cash market counter-elements.
That's what hedging is: receiving compensating dollars for a price that is driven against your cash market position, and also losing windfall gains if it's driven to your advantage.
What you name as "shorts to be closed out adding upwards" is just another temporary story. It adds to the price direction (and increases the fluctuation amplitude) only during the closing out itself. Then it's over. It's not like a permanent effect on the price. And normally, it's the very act of closing out that drops the price. If it doesn't then it's because the market runners have trouble handling things in time (high volatility), which they then solve by increasing margin requirements until it's over.
Pirocco going for $13.low. Dollar/euro fluctuations are temporary stories too, forced by central planning (snake in the tunnel). It's just ago from earlier 2014 that the newspaper here titled that the Euro was too strong and that it hampered export. The central banks took measures. We're now less than 1 year further and the situation became the exact opposite.
At the last $15.4 occasion, a kilo coin here costed 530. At the previous $15.4 occasion, it costed below 500. Because dollar/euro changed, a same $15.4 delivered less silver.
One should buy when his currency is "high".
But the silver price level is driven with it, simply cause to consequence. Yet, the trend reversals itself are usable points.
